Netherlands - Mobile Infrastructure, Broadband, Operators - Statistics and Analyses

Synopsis

Growth in the number of mobile subscribers in the Dutch market has faltered in recent years, though there remains growth in the M2M and mobile broadband sectors. The decline in the number of traditional SIM cards is partly the result of higher mobile penetration and also of competition on pricing which has meant that subscribers have less cause to acquire SIM cards from different providers to capitalise on cheaper on-net tariffs. In common with other European markets, the LTE sector is the main driver in the sector, supported by the combination of high smartphone penetration and competitive pricing for mobile data bundles. While operators are concentrating investment on 5G some, including KPN, have begun the process of closing 3G infrastructure with a view to refarming spectrum and other assets for LTE and 5G services. In some rural areas with poor fixed-line broadband coverage MNOS offer LTE services as a fixed broadband replacement and this trend will gain pace once 5G becomes widely available from about 2022.

Market revenue has been affected in recent quarters as a result of competition and regulatory measures on termination rates and roaming tariffs, as well as by consumer adoption of alternative messaging services, which has reduced the volume of SMS traffic.

The mobile market is fairly concentrated though the triopoly of T-Mobile Netherlands, KPN and VodafoneZiggo is supplemented by a good number of MVNOs and resellers. In recent years MNOs have focussed on LTE infrastructure and technology upgrades as a basis for developing mobile data services, with at least 95% of subscribers having LTE-compatible smartphones. More recently there has been investment in 5G: a 5G research platform was set up in late 2016 as a test bed for future applications and services, while a number of trials have included traffic control and smart applications. Additional pressure on MNOs is coming from new regulations which ended the restriction by which SIM cards were owned only by MNOs, essentially paving the way for private network operators to develop M2M and other services.

This report provides statistics and analyses on the Dutch mobile market, including a review of the key operators and regulatory issues, an assessment of emerging mobile data services and details of technologies based on LTE-B, LTB-M and 5G.

Key developments:

  • KPN preps for 5G trials, plans 3G network shutdown in 2022;
  • Tele2 Netherlands launches VoWi-Fi service;
  • T-Mobile launches ‘4G For Home’ solution;
  • VodafoneZiggo completes LTE-M network roll out;
  • KPN extends LTE-M services;
  • MNOs refarm 3G spectrum in the 2100MHz and 2600MHz bands for LTE;
  • T-Mobile Netherlands launches CA LTE-A services;
  • MNOs join with banks to launch m-payments system;
  • T-Mobile and Tele2 sign network sharing agreement;
  • Report update includes the regulator’s market data for Q4 2017, telcos’ operating and financial data to Q2 2018, recent market developments.
  • Companies mentioned in this report:

KPN, Orange Netherlands, Tele2, Versatel, Vodafone Netherlands, Ziggo, T-Mobile Netherlands.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Market analysis
  • 3. Mobile statistics
    • 3.1 General statistics
  • 4. Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2019; 2021; 2023
  • 5. Mobile infrastructure
    • 5.1 Digital networks
      • 5.1.1 5G
      • 5.1.2 4G (LTE)
      • 5.1.3 3G
  • 6. Internet of Things (IoT)
    • 6.1 Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
  • 7. Mobile voice
  • 8. Mobile data
    • 8.1.1 SMS
      • 8.2 Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS)
    • 9. Mobile broadband
    • 10. Regulatory issues
      • 10.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
        • 10.1.1 2.6GHz
        • 10.1.2 3.5GHz
        • 10.1.3 Spectrum auction - 2012
        • 10.1.4 Spectrum auction -2020
        • 10.1.5 Spectrum refarming
      • 10.2 Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs)
      • 10.3 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
      • 10.4 Roaming
      • 10.5 Network sharing
    • 11. Major mobile operators
      • 11.1 KPN
      • 11.2 VodafoneZiggo
      • 11.3 T-Mobile Netherlands
      • 11.4 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
    • 12. Mobile content and applications
      • 12.1 M-payments
      • 12.2 Satellite mobile
    • 13. Related reports
    • Table 1 – Mobile services market revenue (MNOs) – 2006 - 2017
    • Table 2 – Mobile revenue by retail, wholesale – 2013 - 2017
    • Table 3 – Mobile services revenue by sector– 2008 - 2017
    • Table 4 – Historic - Mobile (SIM) subscribers and penetration rate (regulator data) – 1999 - 2009
    • Table 5 – Mobile (SIM) subscribers and penetration rate (regulator data) – 2010 - 2018
    • Table 6 – Total mobile voice traffic – 2007 - 2018
    • Table 7 – Market share of subscribers by operator – 2006 - 2018
    • Table 8 – Prepaid and contract subscribers by market share (MNOS) – 2008 - 2017
    • Table 9 – Prepaid and contract subscribers (MNOs) – 2007 - 2017
    • Table 10 – Mobile antennae in service by technology – 2014 - 2017
    • Table 11 – Investment in mobile infrastructure – 2012 - 2017
    • Table 12 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2019; 2021; 2023
    • Table 13 – KPN LTE subscribers – 2012 - 2015
    • Table 14 – M2M connections – 2010 - 2017
    • Table 15 – Data traffic – 2008 - 2017
    • Table 16 – Data traffic quarterly change – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 17 – SMS traffic – 2008 - 2018
    • Table 18 – Mobile broadband subscribers and penetration – 2010 - 2018
    • Table 19 – Mobile broadband subscribers by type – 2009 - 2017
    • Table 20 – 3G licence awards (spectrum, spectrum fees and admin fees) – July 2000
    • Table 21 – Wholesale termination revenue – 2007 - 2016
    • Table 22 – Wholesale terminated traffic – 2010 - 2017
    • Table 23 – Historic - Cumulative mobile numbers ported – 2003 - 2009
    • Table 25 – European data roaming charges – 2014 - 2017
    • Table 26 – KPN mobile consumer retail and wholesale subscribers – 2006 - 2018
    • Table 27 – KPN mobile revenue – 2015 - 2018
    • Table 28 – KPN mobile revenue by quarter – 2015 - 2018
    • Table 29 – KPN mobile monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2018
    • Table 30 – Historic - Vodafone Netherlands financial data – 2007 - 2017
    • Table 31 – VodafoneZiggo mobile revenue – 2016 - 2018
    • Table 32 – VodafoneZiggo subscribers – 2004 - 2018
    • Table 33 – Vodafone Netherlands ARPU – 2004 - 2018
    • Table 34 – Historic - Vodafone Netherlands voice minutes – 2004 - 2016
    • Table 35 – T-Mobile Netherlands subscribers – 2006 - 2018
    • Table 36 – T-Mobile Netherlands financial data – 2006 - 2018
    • Table 37 – T-Mobile Netherlands mobile service revenue – 2007 - 2016
    • Table 38 – T-Mobile Netherlands blended ARPU – 2006 - 2016
    • Table 39 – MVNO subscribers – 2005 - 2017
    • Table 40 – Tele2 mobile subscribers – 2007 - 2018
    • Table 41 – Tele2 mobile revenue – 2012 - 2018
    • Chart 1 – Mobile revenue by retail, wholesale – 2013 – 2017
    • Chart 2 – Mobile services revenue by sector– 2008 – 2017
    • Chart 3 – Total mobile (SIM) subscribers and penetration rate (regulator data) – 2005 – 2018
    • Chart 4 – Prepaid and contract subscribers – 2007 – 2017
    • Chart 5 – Mobile broadband subscribers and penetration – 2010 – 2018
    • Chart 6 – KPN Mobile consumer retail subscribers – 2006 – 2018
    • Chart 7 – Vodafone Netherlands financial data – 2007 – 2017
    • Chart 8 – T-Mobile Netherlands financial data – 2006 – 2018
    • Chart 9 – MVNO subscribers – 2005 – 2017
    • Exhibit 1 – 2.6GHz spectrum auction – April 2010
    • Exhibit 2 – Spectrum auction – October 2012

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    Licence Information

    Focus Report Profile

    Technologies

    Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
    Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
    Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)

    Number of pages 33

    Status Current

    Last updated 16 Oct 2018
    Update History

    Analyst: Henry Lancaster

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