Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Overall revenue from electronic communications services in Luxembourg has increased steadily during the last few years though there remains pressure from regulatory measures on areas such as interconnection tariffs and roaming charges, lower consumer use of fixed-line voice services and the prevalence of VoIP/VoBB over traditional PSTN lines. In combination with fixed-mobile substitution, strong growth in VoIP/VoBB services has meant that Luxembourg has one of the lowest fixed-line densities in Europe.
In recent years the incumbent telco POST Telecom (formerly P&T Luxembourg) has concentrated on cloud and managed services, as well as on offering bundled packages. The company offers a 100Mb/s service nationally, while the footprint of its 1Gb/s service is making gains in line with the government’s program to provide a 1Gb/s service to all citizens by the end of 2020, and to make Luxembourg the first fully fibred country in Europe. The company also offers broadband based on G.fast technology, primarily aimed at apartment buildings.
Investment in infrastructure is geared towards fulfilling these ambitions, though the level of investment as a proportion of revenue has fallen in recent years, largely as a response to the completion of major projects.
High mobile penetration has slowed subscriber growth in the mobile market since 2005, though a recent law requiring SIM card registration has not an adverse effect on the number of mobile subscribers despite network operators deactivating unregistered cards.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
POST Luxembourg, Cegecom, Tango, Telecom Luxembourg
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BuddeComm's strategic business reports contain a combination of both primary and secondary research statistics, analyses written by our senior analysts supported by a network of experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the world as well as our own scenario forecasts.
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