2012 Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

Last updated: 4 Jun 2012 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 83

Analyst: Henry Lancaster

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Poland’s telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile, internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors. Subjects include:

Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
Facts, figures and statistics;
Industry and regulatory issues;
Infrastructure;
Major Players, Revenues, Subscribers, ARPU, MoU;
Internet, VoIP, IPTV;
Mobile Voice and Data Markets;
Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless);
Convergence and Digital Media;
3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015;
Broadband market forecasts for selective years to 2020.

Key developments:

T-Mobile/ Orange Poland joint venture approved by the Office of Competition; regulator announces 2012 tender for LTE in the 2.50-2.57GHz and 2.62-2.69GHz bands; Cyfrowy Polsat and Polkomtel launch LTE; Orange expands mobile wallet offering; regulator prepares 800MHz and 1800MHz auction; regulator eases cuts in MTR in exchange for network investment; Liberty Global buys Aster, trials 250Mb/s cable service; Orange Poland expands Neostrada Fiber offer; Toya deploys 1Gb/s FttH network; Netia and Orange Poland head fibre-based consortia to extend broadband nationally; Milmex set to launch WiMAX in the 3.5GHz band; Ministry of Administration and Digitalisation created to oversee telecom sector development; TK Telekom and Exatel put up for sale; Orange Poland launches multi-platform TV service; National Broadcasting Council awards licences on the first multiplex; Cyfra+ merges with digital TV platform ITI Neovision; regulator’s 2010 market data; telcos’ operating and financial data to Q1 2012; market developments to mid-2012.

Companies covered in this report include:

UPC Polska, Vectra, Multimedia Polska, Aster, Cyfra+, Cyfrowy Polsat, N/TNK, Telekomunikacja Polska (Orange Poland), TVP, Netia, Telefonia Dialog, GTS Energis, Exatel, TK Telekom, Polkomtel, PTK Centertel, T-Mobile, P4/Play, Centernet, Mobyland.

Researcher:- Henry Lancaster
Current publication date:- June 2012 (11th Edition)

Executive Summary

Telcos and regulator step up a gear for national broadband infrastructure

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in one of Eastern Europe’s largest and most competitive markets. It includes data from the regulator’s 2010 annual report, telcos’ operating and financial data to March 2012 and market developments to mid-2012.

Economic background

Having joined the EU in mid-2004, Poland enjoyed a sustained period of economic growth until the regional financial turmoil led to declining demand for its exports, a slowdown of credit activity, and lower foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, Poland’s GDP increased by an estimated 4.5% in 2011, year-on-year, and growth of 3-4% is anticipated for 2012. Overall economic recovery has been reflected in the telecoms market, where both revenue and investment have increased steadily since 2009. This is largely supported by the strong mobile and broadband sectors which have partly compensated for falling fixed-line voice telephony revenue.

Telecom market overview

Poland’s telecoms market has been reformed in line with the policies of the EU. Competition has been introduced though the incumbent operator, the rebranded Orange Poland, retains a major share of the overall market. The fixed-line market has contracted due to the migration to VoIP and mobile alternatives. The market remains fluid, with continuing consolidation among the smaller cable operators, and with the telcos TK Telekom and Exatel due to be sold later in 2012. The main players together with the regulator have stepped up efforts and strategies to complete a national broadband infrastructure, and so benefit from trans-sector and capabilities which broadband can deliver.

Mobile market

The mobile sector is now the largest comms market in terms of revenue. High penetration rates have focussed MNOs’ attentions to mobile data services. These are set to develop swiftly in 2013 following the anticipated auction of spectrum in the 2.6GHz and 800MHz bands. LTE services will become a dominant feature of the mobile landscape, while the additional spectrum will facilitate rural broadband connectivity in coming years.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013

Sector	2010	2013 (e)
Subscribers by sector (million):
Fixed broadband subscribers	5.86	6.56
Mobile broadband	3.5	9.3
Mobile phone	46.9	49.3
Fixed-line telephony	8.3	7.0
Penetration by sector:
Fixed broadband	18%	22%
Mobile	123%	128%
Fixed-line	24%	21%

(Source: BuddeComm)

Market Highlights

ASO has been confirmed for mid-2013, though satellite and digital cable TV remain the most common form of receiving TV.
The regulator’s recent agreement with Ukraine concerning the use of frequencies in the 790-862MHz band in border areas will help the development of 4G services in Poland for mobile services. The agreement follows similar ones already undertaken with Russia and Belarus.
FttX deployments remain low key though the government’s broadband policy has provisioned for network infrastructure access to promote fibre deployments.
The dominant cable UPC Polska, which merged the operations of Aster in early 2012, continues to upgrade networks, offering up to 150Mb/s. The higher data rate will help reduce customer churn to FttX networks as the latter are built out in coming years.
Further market changes are expected later in 2012 and 2013 pending the sale of some operators. This includes Polish State Railways proposed sale of TK Telekom and PGE’s sale of the regional telco Exatel.
The regulator may extend its responsibilities to include the cable sector, with a decision expected by mid-2013.

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Poland. It provides further information on:

Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
The impact of the global economic crisis;
Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards;
3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
ARPU statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications Market
- 2.1 Overview of Poland’s telecom market
3. Regulatory Environment
- 3.1 History
  - 3.1.1 Telecommunications Act (2001)
  - 3.1.2 Telecommunications Act (2004)
  - 3.1.3 EU Regulatory Framework
  - 3.1.4 Revised NFR
- 3.2 Regulatory authority
  - 3.2.1 Office of Electronic Communications (UKE)
- 3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Poland
  - 3.3.1 Local
  - 3.3.2 Long distance
  - 3.3.3 International
- 3.4 Privatisation
- 3.5 Interconnection
- 3.6 Carrier selection and carrier preselection
- 3.7 Access
- 3.8 Functional separation
- 3.9 Number Portability (NP)
4. Fixed Network Operators in Poland
- 4.1 Market overview
- 4.2 Orange Poland
- 4.3 Netia
- 4.4 Telefonia Dialog
- 4.5 Telekomunikacja Kolejowa (TK Telekom)
- 4.6 GTS Energis
- 4.7 Exatel
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
- 5.1 Fixed-line statistics
- 5.2 Orange Poland
- 5.3 Alternative operators
- 5.4 Wholesaling
  - 5.4.1 Overview
6. Fixed Broadband Market
- 6.1 Overview
- 6.2 Government and EU support
- 6.3 Poland’s emerging internet society
  - 6.3.1 E-commerce
  - 6.3.2 E-government
  - 6.3.3 E-health
- 6.4 Fixed broadband statistics
- 6.5 Cable broadband
- 6.6 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
- 6.7 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
- 6.8 Wireless broadband
  - 6.8.1 WiFi
  - 6.8.2 WiMAX
  - 6.8.3 Internet via satellite
- 6.9 Mobile broadband
7. Digital Media
- 7.1 Overview of Digital Media market
- 7.2 Business models
  - 7.2.1 Bundled services
  - 7.2.2 EmiTel
  - 7.2.3 TVP
  - 7.2.4 Telewizja Polsat
  - 7.2.5 TVN
- 7.3 Digital TV (DTV)
  - 7.3.1 Broadband TV (IPTV)
  - 7.3.2 Video-on-Demand (VoD)
  - 7.3.3 Cable TV (CATV)
  - 7.3.4 Satellite-based digital pay TV developments
  - 7.3.5 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
8. Mobile Communications
- 8.1 Overview of Poland’s mobile market
  - 8.1.1 Mobile statistics
- 8.2 Regulatory issues
  - 8.2.1 GSM licences
  - 8.2.2 Third Generation licences awarded
  - 8.2.3 Fourth GSM licence/fourth 3G licence auction
  - 8.2.4 800MHz spectrum
  - 8.2.5 2.6GHz
  - 8.2.6 1800MHz spectrum
  - 8.2.7 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
  - 8.2.8 Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
  - 8.2.9 Roaming
  - 8.2.10 Network sharing
- 8.3 Mobile technologies
  - 8.3.1 Digital
  - 8.3.2 Third Generation mobile
  - 8.3.3 Fourth Generation mobile
- 8.4 Major mobile operators
  - 8.4.1 PTK Centertel/Orange
  - 8.4.2 Polkomtel/Plus GSM
  - 8.4.3 T-Mobile
  - 8.4.4 Centernet
  - 8.4.5 Mobyland
  - 8.4.6 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
- 8.5 Mobile voice services
  - 8.5.1 Prepaid cards
- 8.6 Mobile Messaging
  - 8.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
  - 8.6.2 Mobile data services
  - 8.6.3 Mobile content and applications
9. Forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers – 2010 - 2013; 2020
- 9.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
- 9.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
  - 9.2.1 Notes on scenario forecasts
10. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Country statistics – 2011 (e)
Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 3 – Internet user statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 4 – Broadband statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 5 – Mobile statistics – 2012 (e)
Table 6 – National telecommunications authority
Table 7 – Telecom revenue – 2008 - 2013
Table 8 – Market share of revenue and subscribers by operator – 2010
Table 9 – IT market revenue and growth – 2004 - 2012
Table 10 – TP interconnection rates – 2006 - 2009
Table 11 – LLU as proportion of DSL lines – 2008 - 2012
Table 12 – Numbers ported – 2009 - 2010
Table 13 – Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers – 2005 - 2012
Table 14 – Market share of revenue by operator – 2010
Table 15 – Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets – 2006 - 2012
Table 16 – Market share of revenue, TP and altnets – 2006 - 2012
Table 17 – Orange Poland total retail lines and ARPU – 2009 - 2012
Table 18 – Orange Poland fixed-line ARPU – 2009 - 2012
Table 19 – Orange Poland Group financial data – 2006 - 2012
Table 20 – Netia financial data – 2007 - 2012
Table 21 – Netia subscribers by type – 2008 - 2012
Table 22 – Exatel financial data – 2009 - 2010
Table 23 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 2000 - 2013
Table 24 – Wholesale lines by type – 2009 - 2010
Table 25 – Cost of local loop unbundling and shared access – 2006 - 2009
Table 26 – Broadband market revenue by sector – 2006 - 2012
Table 27 – Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector – 2006 - 2010
Table 28 – Broadband penetration by technology – 2009 - 2012
Table 29 – Fixed-line broadband market share by operator – 2011
Table 30 – Workplace network usage by network type – 2006 - 2011
Table 31 – E-education usage by individuals – 2007 - 2011
Table 32 – E-education usage by businesses – 2007 - 2011
Table 33 – Online purchases by individuals – 2005 - 2012
Table 34 – Uptake of e-government services by businesses – 2004 - 2011
Table 35 – Uptake of e-government services by individuals – 2004 - 2011
Table 36 – Internet users, subscribers and penetration rates – 2000 - 2012
Table 37 – ISP market share – 2008 - 2010
Table 38 – Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate – 2001 - 2012
Table 39 – Fixed broadband subscribers by data speed – 2010
Table 40 – Orange Poland broadband and IPTV ARPU – 2008 - 2012
Table 41 – UPC Poland subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 42 – Cable market share of subscribers by operator – 2010
Table 43 – Multimedia Polska broadband subscribers – 2009 - 2012
Table 44 – Orange Poland DSL subscribers – 2003 - 2012
Table 45 – Netia broadband subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 46 – DSL market share of subscribers by operator – 2010
Table 47 – Mobile broadband market share of subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2010
Table 48 – Mobile broadband subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 - 2013
Table 49 – Orange dedicated mobile broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 50 – Proportion of subscribers to bundled services by type – 2010
Table 51 – Market share of TV and broadband bundles by operator – 2010
Table 52 – Pay TV market share by operator – 2011
Table 53 – Orange Poland Livebox, IPTV customers – 2008 - 2012
Table 54 – Cable TV market share by operator – Mar 2011
Table 55 – Cable TV subscribers – 2009 - 2011
Table 56 – UPC – homes passed – 2003 – 2012
Table 57 – UPC – subscribers by service type – 2003 - 2012
Table 58 – Multimedia Polska financial data – 2009 – 2012
Table 59 – Multimedia Polska subscribers – 2009 - 2012
Table 60 – Multimedia Polska triple play subscribers by service – 2009 - 2012
Table 61 – Cyfrowy Polsat financial data – 2004 - 2012
Table 62 – Cyfrowy Polsat operational data – 2004 - 2012
Table 63 – Cyfrowy Polsat ARPU, SAC – 2004 - 2012
Table 64 – N financial data – 2010 - 2011
Table 65 – N subscriber data – 2010 - 2011
Table 66 – Orange DTH subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 67 – Mobile market revenue – 2009 - 2012
Table 68 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1995 - 2012
Table 69 – Mobile market share of revenue by operator – 2009 - 2010
Table 70 – Mobile market share of subscribers by operator – 2009 - 2010
Table 71 – Mobile market traffic and annual change – 2006 - 2013
Table 72 – Mobile number portings – 2010 – 2011
Table 73 – Retail roaming charges, voice, SMS, data – 2010, 2012; 2014
Table 74 – Roaming traffic (voice, SMS, data) – 2007 - 2010
Table 75 – Orange mobile revenue – 2010 - 2012
Table 76 – Orange subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 77 – Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU – 2008 - 2012
Table 78 – Orange data ARPU share – 2008 - 2012
Table 79 – Polkomtel subscribers – 2009 - 2010
Table 80 – Polkomtel financial data – 2009 - 2011
Table 81 – Polkomtel annualised ARPU – 2008 - 2009
Table 82 – T-Mobile subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 83 – T-Mobile financial data – 2005 - 2012
Table 84 – T-Mobile ARPU and churn – 2005 - 2012
Table 85 – Play (Netia) mobile subscribers – 2011 - 2012
Table 86 – Ratio of prepaid to postpaid subscribers – 2003 - 2012
Table 87 – Orange prepaid subscribers – 2003 - 2012
Table 88 – T-Mobile prepaid subscribers – 2005 - 2012
Table 89 – Polkomtel prepaid subscribers – 2005 - 2010
Table 90 – SMS messages sent and annual growth– 2006 - 2012
Table 91 – MMS messages sent and annual growth– 2006 - 2012
Table 92 – Mobile data traffic– 2008 - 2013
Table 93 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
Table 94 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020

Chart 1 – Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers – 2005 – 2012
Chart 2 – Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets – 2006 – 2012
Chart 3 – Market share of revenue, TP and altnets – 2006 – 2012
Chart 4 – Orange Poland total retail lines and ARPU – 2009 – 2012
Chart 5 – Orange Poland Group financial data – 2006 – 2012
Chart 6 – Netia financial data – 2007 – 2012
Chart 7 – Netia subscribers by type – 2008 – 2012
Chart 8 – Exatel financial data – 2009 – 2010
Chart 9 – Broadband market revenue by sector – 2006 – 2012
Chart 10 – Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector – 2006 – 2010
Chart 11 – Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate – 2001 – 2012
Chart 12 – UPC Poland subscribers – 2008 – 2012
Chart 13 – Orange Poland Livebox, IPTV customers – 2008 – 2012
Chart 14 – UPC – subscribers by service type – 2003 – 2012
Chart 15 – Multimedia Polska financial data – 2009 – 2012
Chart 16 – Multimedia Polska subscribers – 2009 – 2012
Chart 17 – Cyfrowy Polsat financial data – 2004 – 2012
Chart 18 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2000 – 2012
Chart 19 – Orange subscribers – 2007 – 2012
Chart 20 – Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU – 2008 – 2012
Chart 21 – Polkomtel subscribers – 2009 – 2010
Chart 22 – Polkomtel financial data – 2009 – 2011
Chart 23 – T-Mobile financial data – 2005 – 2012

Exhibit 1 – The EU Regulatory Framework for communications
Exhibit 2 – Access, the local loop and unbundling – an overview
Exhibit 3 – 2G spectrum awarded in Poland

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