Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Poland’s telecommunications market. The report analyses the fixed-line, mobile and broadband sectors. Subjects include:
Researcher:- Henry Lancaster
Current publication date:- June 2019 (18th Edition)
Poland’s liberalised telecom market has seen considerable development in the broadband and mobile sectors. The incumbent telco, Orange Poland, dominates the broadband market and has invested in fibre infrastructure to support the growing adoption of bundled services among customers.
The regulatory environment has also been shaped by EU principles designed to facilitate competition, allowing competing operators to enter the market. This extended to opening Orange Poland’s fibre network to access and pricing regulation, while in May 2019 the regulator also instituted new rules governing wholesale access to cable networks.
The mobile market in recent years has been characterised by the rapid extension of LTE networks and the development of mobile data services based on newly released and re-farmed spectrum. The regulator is preparing to release additional spectrum in several bands for 5G, though delays to the process mean that 700MHz spectrum is unlikely to be available before mid-2022.
Operators have invested in 5G, with T-Mobile Poland having launched a pre-commercial service in Warsaw at the end of 2018, and with full commercial services expected to be available in early 2020.
Mobile penetration in Poland is above the European average, standing at 137% by mid-2019. This reflects the continuing popularity among consumers to keep two or more SIM cards, which has distorted the real mobile penetration rate. Nevertheless, the distortion has been addressed on two fronts: by network operators being encouraged to disconnect dormant SIM cards, and by legislation, effective from February 2017, which obliges subscribers of prepaid services to register their details. These forces have resulted in a significant readjustment in the number of subscribers in the market.
The market has effective competition from four MNOs, and has room for more than two dozen MVNOs though many of these are small operators with marginal market share. ARPU has been adversely affected by retail tariff competition and by regulatory mandated reductions in mobile termination rates and roaming tariffs. However, operators anticipate that ARPU will rise in line with consumer adoption of mobile data services, facilitated by improved network infrastructure.
The fixed broadband market has benefited from excellent cross-platform competition, with comprehensive DSL infrastructure complemented by extensive cable networks and a growing fibre presence. Commercial considerations meant that fibre was for some years restricted to a number of urban areas, though more recently the sector has received considerable financial support from the government and the European Union. This support is aimed at building fibre-based networks across the country (particularly in eastern areas) and promoting fibre connectivity to end-users. As a result, the proportion of broadband subscribers receiving a service of at least 100Mb/s has increased sharply in recent years.
This report covers key aspects of Poland’s developing telecom market, presenting data and analyses on market operators, fixed-line networks and technologies, and the key regulatory developments. The report reviews the fixed broadband market, including an assessment of technology platforms and recent market developments. In addition, the report profiles the main mobile network operators, and analyses recent regulatory measures and spectrum auction results, and evaluates LTE deployments and operator strategies for 5G.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
CenterNet, Polkomtel (Plus), T-Mobile Poland, P4/Play, Mobyland, UPC Poland, Orange Poland (Telekomunikacja Polska), Netia, Aster, Multimedia Polska, Vectra, Telefonia Dialog, GTS Energis, Exatel, Telekomunikacja Kolejowa.
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