Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Last updated: 28 Apr 2020 Update History
Report Pages: 99
Analyst: Sebastien De Rosbo
Mongolia possesses a liberalised and competitive telecoms market served by multiple competing players and an incumbent operator that no longer holds a dominant share of its market. The growing popularity of mobile broadband has underpinned overall broadband and telecoms growth. This trend is consolidating Mongolia’s position as a “mobile first” telecoms market and shaping the future direction of Mongolia’s developing digital economy.
The penetration of fixed lines in Mongolia has increased strongly over the past five years as a higher proportion of residences decide to take a fixed line access option. Penetration is however predicted to only increase slightly over the next five years to 2023.
Fixed broadband penetration in Uzbekistan remains low mainly due to a limited number of fixed lines and the dominance of the mobile platform. Fixed broadband remains an attractive proposition where it is available due to the inherent bandwidth advantages of fixed platforms compared with wireless.
Mongolia’s mobile market has experienced fairly slow growth over the past five years in a relatively mature market. Slow to moderate growth is predicted over the next five years to 2023. The market will be constrained from higher growth due to strong local competition and a further maturing market.
Mobile broadband penetration has grown very strongly over the past five years. With the launch of 4G LTE services by all the major operators, mobile broadband customers will continue to grow strongly over the next five years to 2023.
South Korea’s KT Corp completed the sale of its 40% stake in Telecom Mongolia back to the Mongolian government.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
Paul, Many thanks for your inputs yesterday. You provided a compelling different perspective to our traditional infrastructure focus and this is valuable for our future planning. I also had very favourable feedback from our participants on your involvement.
Stephen Negus, Aurecon
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