India - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

Publication Overview

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in India’s telecommunications market. The report analyses the Telecoms Infrastructure, mobile, fixed broadband, Digital Media and Digital Economy sectors. Subjects include:

Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
Regional market comparisons
Telecoms Maturity Index
Industry and regulatory issues;
Infrastructure;
Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU;
Mobile voice and data markets;
Broadband (FTTH, DSL);
Internet of Things, 5G developments
Mobile, broadband and mobile broadband forecasts to 2023.

Researcher:- Phil Harpur
Current publication date:- October 2018 (24th Edition)

Executive Summary

India’s mobile market continues to consolidate causing massive market upheaval

India continues to be one of the fastest growing major telecom markets in the world. It is also one of the largest. Sweeping reforms introduced by successive Indian governments over the last two decades have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. The Indian government has been proactive in its efforts to transform India into a global telecommunication hub.

India's telecom industry is expected to see a major expansion of its network infrastructure during the 2018 to 2020 period. Each of the top three mobile operators: Reliance Jio, Airtel and Vodafone-Idea are now planning to extend coverage to address a surge in data consumption.

The fixed line market in India remains highly underdeveloped due to the dominance of the mobile segment. Further, the number of fixed telephone lines is slowly declining as the mobile segment continues to expand.

As well as its huge national network, India’s investment in telecommunications infrastructure over the last decade has extended to a heavy involvement in the international market. Under the leadership of international operator VSNL/Tata Indicom the country has been assembling an extensive infrastructure of gateways, satellite earth stations and fibre optic submarine cables.

India’s fixed broadband market remains highly under-developed due to the dominance of the mobile platform and in turn by the uptake of mobile broadband. Fixed broadband penetration is expected to grow at a moderate rate over the next five years to 2023 from a very small base.

Leading Indian fixed broadband service providers have a limited pan-India fixed broadband presence and are mainly focused on metros, and selected tier-1 cities.

The digital economy will help the country align to its goals of expanding the wider Indian economy as well as enhancing jobs. Sectors such as communications, including telecoms, IT services and eCommerce in the coming years will expand further contributing to the country’s digital economic growth.

India is one of the fastest growing eCommerce markets globally however India will take more than 10 years to reach the level of the US and China markets in online retail.

There are several trends in the Indian online education segment that are contributing to the growth opportunities ahead. These included a continuous need for working professionals to learn new skills as well as the emergence of technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence that is enabling online education vendors to design customized content.

India’s mobile market has experienced very strong growth over the last six years. The market remains highly competitive, but rather than a focus only on growth in subscribers the market is shifting to value-added. The roll-out of 4G / LTE services is driving a significant shift to mobile data services across the country.

Particularly strong growth was seen in the 2016-2018 period as newcomer Reliance Jio aggressively entered the market. With its totally 4G offering, Reliance Jio has evolved to become a nationwide mobile operator focused heavily on data, with voice and data services at half the average market rates. This has seen a sharp drop in ARPU amongst most mobile operators and a sharp loss of subscribers by some operators. Operations of smaller-scale mobile operators is becoming increasingly unviable, forcing them to merge or be acquired by larger providers or exit the market entirely.

Slower growth is predicted over the next five years to 2023. The market will be constrained from higher growth due to very strong local competition and an increasingly saturated mobile market.

Mobile broadband penetration has grown strongly in India over the past few years driven by a strong and growing mobile subscriber base and strong adoption of 4G LTE services. Further strong growth is predicted over the next few years, driven by further adoption of 4G and eventually 5G services particularly as the penetration rate is well below a number of other nations.

Uptake of next generation technologies such as Internet-of-things (IoT), and evolving trends such as smart cities, and new devices offering virtual reality experiences will all enhance data usage going forward. Operators will increasingly focus on infrastructure investments such as optical fibre and small cells for expanding 4G coverage and capacity. India has taken initial steps towards the eventual rollout of 5G services

Key Developments

The mobile market continues to be the main focus of the Indian telecom sector;
India's telecom industry is expected to see a major expansion of its network infrastructure during the 2018 to 2020 period;
The Reserve Bank of India drafted guidelines that allows for direct money transfers between the apps of different mobile wallet providers;
IoT focus areas will include agriculture, health, transportation, security, automobile, and smart cities;
Video will remain the main driver for online content consumption;
Fixed broadband penetration is expected to grow at a moderate rate over the next five years to 2023;
India has taken initial steps towards the eventual rollout of 5G services;
Market competition is intensifying in the mobile sector, significant market consolidation amongst the mobile operators is underway.

Key companies mentioned in this report:

Aircel, Bharti Airtel, Loop Mobile (BPL Mobile), Idea, Reliance Communications, Tata Teleservices, Videocon, S Tel, Bharti Telenet, Reliance Infocomm, Tata Teleservices, Sistema (Shyam Telelink), Swan Telecom, Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), Vodafone, Spectra, Reliance Jio Infocomm (RJI), Sistema.

Phil Harpur
October 2018

Table of Contents

Key statistics
Telecommunications market

Market overview and analysis
Regional Asian Market Comparison
Background
Telecommunications investment

Infrastructure projects – 2018 – 2020
Investment in digital projects
Rural projects
2018-19 telecoms projects

Regulatory environment

Overview
Regulatory authorities

Ministry for Communications (MoC)
Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
Telecom Commission
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
Communications Commission of India (CCI)
Department of Electronics and Information Technology (DeitY)

Licensing circles
Licensing – VNO’s
Net neutrality
Access
Fibre access
Interconnect
Regulatory developments

Regulatory developments – 2015
Regulatory developments – 2014

Government policies

12th Five Year Plan (2012 – 2017)

Fixed network operators

Fixed-line statistics by operator
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
Bharti airtel
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
Quadrant
Reliance Communications

SSTL (Sistema)

Tata Teleservices
Videocon
Vodafone
NTT

Telecommunications infrastructure

Overview of the national telecom network
Statistics
Telecom towers

Overview
Developments

Rural and regional networks

Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
Public Call Offices (PCOs)

BharatNet / National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN)
Next Generation Networks (NGN)
International infrastructure

Background

Satellite communications

INSAT
Intelsat
Thaicom (formerly ShinSat)

Submarine cable networks

FLAG
Network i2i
Tata-Indicom cable
SEA-ME-WE 4
Bharat Lanka cable
India, Middle East, Western Europe (I-ME-WE) cable
Europe India Gateway (EIG) cable
Southeast Asia Japan Cable System (SJC)
Submarine cable developments

Specific IT developments

Data Centres
Cloud Computing

Smart infrastructure

Internet-of-Things (IoT)
Smart cities
Artificial Intelligence

Broadband market

Introduction and statistical overview

Market overview and analysis
Broadband statistics and Forecast
National Broadband Policy
National Broadband Plan

Fixed Broadband Service Providers

Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
Bharti Airtel
Hughes Telecom
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
Atria Convergence Technologies (ACT)
Vodafone
Spectra
Internet Service Providers (ISPs)

Fixed Broadband Technologies

Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) networks
Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) networks
Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) and Fibre-To-The-Home (FttH)
Fixed wireless

Digital economy

Overview
e-Commerce
e-Payments
e-Education
Smart meters

Digital media

Videostreaming

IPTV

Broadcasting market

Overview
Market statistics
Cable TV and Satellite TV
Satellite TV Direct-to-Home (DTH) TV

Mobile communications

Market overview and analysis

Geographic segments
Rural expansion

Mobile statistics

Mobile statistics and Forecast
Mobile broadband statistics and forecast

Regulatory issues

Spectrum
Mobile subscriber verification
Call drop investigation
Operators directed to issue data usage messages
Interconnection
Roaming
Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
Network sharing

Mobile infrastructure

Introduction
GSM
CDMA
3G
4G / LTE
5G Developments
Other infrastructure developments

Major mobile operators

Subscribers by operator
Merger activities – 2016 – 2018
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
Bharti Airtel
Idea Cellular
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
Quadrant
Reliance Communications (RCOM)
Aircel
Reliance Jio Infocomm (Jio)
Tata Teleservices
Vodafone
Reach mobile
MVNOs

Mobile content and applications

Introduction
m-Banking (payments/loans)
m-TV
m-Health
Apps

List of Tables

Table 1 – Country Statistics, Major Operators and Telco Authorities – 2018 (e)
Table 2 – Top Level Country Statistics – 2018 (e)
Table 3 – Telephone services to villages (Universal Services) – 2016
Table 4 – Fixed-line subscribers (millions) by operator – 2010 – 2014; 2016 – 2018
Table 5 – Fixed Line Service Provider by Rural, Urban Segment – 2018
Table 6 – Historic - Fixed Line Service Provider by Rural, Urban Segment – 2017
Table 7 – BSNL fixed-line subscribers – 2002; 2012 – 2018
Table 8 – Bharti fixed-line subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 9 – MTNL fixed-line subscribers – 2004; 2007; 2010 – 2018
Table 10 – Quadrant fixed-line subscribers – 2012 – 2018
Table 11 – Reliance fixed-line subscribers – 2005 – 2018
Table 12 – Historic - Sistema fixed-line subscribers – 2010 – 2017
Table 13 – Tata fixed-line subscribers – 2011 – 2018
Table 14 – Historic - Videocon mobile subscribers – 2010 – 2015
Table 15 – Vodafone Fixed Line subscribers – 2011 – 2018
Table 16 – Fixed-line subscribers and penetration – 2007 – 2018
Table 17 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) – 1995 – 2005
Table 18 – PCOs in operation – 2003 – 2004; 2008 – 2018
Table 19 – Fixed Broadband Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2008 – 2023
Table 20 – Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type (Historical) – 2014
Table 21 – Internet penetration – 2006 – 2018
Table 22 – Historic - Dial-up internet subscribers – 2007 – 2013
Table 23 – International internet bandwidth – 2000 – 2017
Table 24 – Historic - Number of licensed ISPs – 2002 – 2003; 2005; 2008 – 2013
Table 25 – Historic - Cable modem subscribers – 2001 - 2014
Table 26 – Historic - DSL subscribers – 2001 – 2014
Table 27 – Historic - FttX subscribers – 2010 – 2014
Table 28 – Historic - Broadcasting market overview – 2016
Table 29 – DTH subscribers – 2008 – 2018
Table 30 – Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2008 – 2023
Table 31 – Historic - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) – 2002 – 2018
Table 32 – Mobile penetration in urban and rural areas – 2007; 2009 – 2018
Table 33 – Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) – 2005 – 2018
Table 34 – Mobile Broadband Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2010 – 2023
Table 35 – Percentage of Population Covered by Type of Mobile Network
Table 36 – GSM ARPU – 2003 – 2018
Table 37 – CDMA ARPU – 2003 – 2018
Table 38 –Mobile subscribers and market share – 2017 – 2018
Table 39 – Historic - Mobile subscribers and market share – 2017
Table 40 – Historic - Mobile operators, subscribers and market share (wireless) – 2015 - 2016
Table 41 – Historic - Mobile operators, subscribers and market share (fixed and wireless) – 2016 – 2017
Table 42 – Historic - Mobile operators, subscribers and market share (fixed and wireless) – 2015 - 2016
Table 43 – Mobile operators – Systems and Launch
Table 44 – BSNL mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 45 – Bharti Airtel mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 46 – Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU – 2004 – 2018
Table 47 – Historic - Telenor mobile subscribers – 2009 – 2017
Table 48 – Idea Cellular mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 49 – Idea Cellular mobile ARPU – 2007 – 2011; 2013 - 2018
Table 50 – MTNL mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 51 – Historic - Quadrant mobile subscribers – 2012 – 2017
Table 52 – Reliance mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 53 – Reliance mobile ARPU – 2007 – 2017
Table 54 – Historic - Sistema mobile subscribers – 2008 – 2017
Table 55 – Aircel mobile subscribers – 2004 – 2018
Table 56 – Reliance Jio mobile subscribers – 2017 – 2018
Table 57 – Reliance mobile ARPU – 2018
Table 58 – Tata Teleservices mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 59 – Vodafone mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2018
Table 60 – Vodafone - mobile ARPU – 2008 – 2018

List of Charts

Chart 1 – Mobile, Mobile Broadband & Fixed Broadband Penetration – 2018; 2023
Chart 2 – Asian Telecoms Maturity Index by Market Category
Chart 4 –Telecoms Maturity Index – Central Asia
Chart 5 - Fixed-line subscribers and penetration – 2007 – 2018
Chart 6 – Fixed Broadband Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2008 – 2023
Chart 7 - Internet penetration – 2007 – 2018
Chart 8 – Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2008 - 2023
Chart 9 – Mobile Broadband Subscribers and Penetration (with Forecast) – 2010 – 2023

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 – Key Market Characteristics by Market Segment
Exhibit 2 – Central Asia -Key Characteristics of Telecoms Markets by Country
Exhibit 3 – Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 4 – ISRO satellite network
Exhibit 5 – International submarine cable systems with landing points in India
Exhibit 6 – CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Broadcasting
Companies (Major Players)
Digital Media
Internet
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Regulations & Government Policies
Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 220

Status Current

Last updated 9 Oct 2018
Update History

Analyst: Phil Harpur

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Paul, Many thanks for your inputs yesterday. You provided a compelling different perspective to our traditional infrastructure focus and this is valuable for our future planning. I also had very favourable feedback from our participants on your involvement.

Stephen Negus, Aurecon