Afghanistan continues to be confronted by challenges. After many years of war and civil strife, an encouraging aspect of the country’s efforts to rebuild has been the considerable success evident in the creating of a functional telecommunications sector virtually from nothing. The telecommunications network now covers over 90% of the population.
Efforts are being made to roll out fixed-line services, but the country’s telecommunications services rely heavily on its mobile infrastructure.
Fixed-line broadband market penetration has not grown significantly over the last five years. Over the next five years to 2024 growth is expected to continue but overall market penetration will remain extremely low.
Afghanistan is making good progress on the roll-out of the government project for a nationwide optical fibre backbone. The work on the ‘Wakhan Corridor Fibre Optic Survey Project’ officially started with the first phase of a plan to install a cross-border fibre link connecting Afghanistan with China.
Afghanistan’s mobile market experienced reasonably strong growth between 2012 and 2017 but faced a serious slowdown in 2018, with the number of subscribers falling 8% year-on-year. This was partly due to increasing violence in the country (creating population displacement as well as damage to infrastructure), and also to a downturn in the regional economy. However, there were positive signs of recovery in 2019, with slow growth despite the uncertainty created by the presidential election. Overall, the mobile market has experienced reasonable growth since 2014, with mobile penetration rising from 55% in 2014 to 60% in 2019 and the number of subscribers reaching 22.9 million.
Further moderate growth is predicted over the next five years (through to 2024), though this assumes stable governance and an improving economic environment. Subscriber penetration is expected to reach 69% by 2024, with the market estimated to grow at a CAGR of 5% between 2019 and 2024.
Afghanistan has seen a strong increase in mobile broadband penetration over the past five years, with penetration reaching to 22% in 2019 compared to only 1% in 2013. The sector is still at an early stage of development and penetration remains relatively low compared to other Asian nations, though stronger growth is anticipated over the next five years in line with operator investments in 4G and increased competition among operators encouraging lower pricing for end-users and improved service offerings. Mobile broadband penetration could reach 35% by 2024, with a subscriber base of 14.8 million. A CAGR of 12% is forecast between 2019 and 2024.
Afghan Telecom/Aftel/Salam Telecom/Networks, Afghan Wireless Communications Company/AWCC, Roshan/ Telecom Development Company Afghanistan Ltd (TDCA), Etisalat Afghanistan, MTN Afghanistan, Wasel Telecom.
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Number of pages 94
Last updated 6 Jan 2020
Analyst: Sebastien De Rosbo
As you know, I have resigned from the Labor Ministry and have decided not to re-contest the seat of Charlton at the next election – both for personal reasons.
Before leaving Parliament, I particularly wish to record my thanks to you for your generous and constructive participation in the deliberations that generated significant economic policy reforms for the Australian community. Continuous economic transformation is a key challenge that faces all Governments.
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