2015 Latin America - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

Publication Overview

Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Latin America, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, broadband and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 14 countries across the region. 

The countries covered in this report include:

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay, Venezuela.

Researchers:- Henry Lancaster
Current publication:- February 2016 (13th Edition)

 

Executive Summary

Internet the main real growth area in Latin America for 2016

Latin America provides significant geographic and practical opportunities as well as difficulties for telcos, governments and telecom regulators. The diversity of the markets poses its own challenges in terms of maturity, the physical development of networks, economic prosperity and the disposable income available to consumers. In addition there are considerations related to the business environment in the region, particularly in relation to the ease of doing business, investment opportunities and the level of sympathy provided by local regulatory regimes. Investment opportunities abound in the Latin American region, though conditions vary significantly between countries. Some governments retain a protective stance towards the incumbent players, which limits the opportunities for competitors in practice.

Mexico a showcase for regulatory progress

Mexico has been at the forefront in this regard in recent years, having passed legislation in late 2013 aimed at reforming its over-concentrated market and encouraging the ability of smaller players to compete against the incumbents Telmex and Telcel. This process is showing dividends into 2016, particularly with the greater involvement of the other key market players Telefonica and AT&T.

Pay TV gaining strength

Across the region, though, the key developments into 2016 will focus on pay TV, where developments have been rapid in recent years, as also in mobile broadband.

These two segments are feeding on the success of satellite and cable TV as well as the proliferation of videostreaming services. These have been able to expand as a result of upgraded fixed-line infrastructure. Mobile broadband has similarly benefitted from operator investments in mobile networks and technologies, particularly with LTE which in early 2016 is commonly providing population coverage of up to 70%. Within the next few years LTE coverage will be far more extensive, and some operators will begin to close down their 2G infrastructure to concentrate on LTE and on upcoming 5G technologies.

FttP networks on the rise

Fibre broadband is also a strong area for growth in coming years. Much of the stimulus for investment is provided by competitive pressure, as well as encouragement from governments which, like their European and North American counterparts, have instituted plans to built national broadband networks. These are aimed at closing the digital divide between urban and rural areas, and at enabling all citizens to make greater use of the socio-economic benefits provided by access to fast broadband infrastructure.

Investments supporting bundled services

Examples of government and telco investment schemes in the region abound. América Móvil, to cite one case, has in train a $50 billion five-year investment program to deploy a 500,000km FttP network across its Latin American markets. The move was in part prompted by the arrival of AT&T into its home Mexican market. For its part, AT&T, which recently acquired two Mexican mobile network operators as well as the regional pay TV operator DirecTV, has ambitions to build up a North American Mobile Service area covering more than 400 million people in Mexico and the US.

Table of Contents

  • 1. National comparisons
    • 1.1 Fixed-Line, Internet and Broadband
    • 1.2 Mobile subscribers
  • 2. Argentina
    • 2.1 Forecasts – broadband market
    • 2.2 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 3. Bolivia
    • 3.1 Forecasts – broadband market
    • 3.2 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 4. Brazil
    • 4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market
    • 4.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
      • 4.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 4.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 4.3 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 5. Chile
    • 5.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
    • 5.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers
  • 6. Colombia
    • 6.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
    • 6.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers
  • 7. Dominican Republic
    • 7.1 Forecasts - mobile subscribers
  • 8. Ecuador
    • 8.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband
    • 8.2 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 9. Jamaica
    • 9.1 Forecasts – broadband Market
    • 9.2 Forecasts – mobile Market
  • 10. Mexico
    • 10.1 Forecasts – broadband market
    • 10.2 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 11. Panama
    • 11.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market
      • 11.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 11.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 11.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
      • 11.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 11.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 11.3 Forecasts – mobile market
      • 11.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 11.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 12. Paraguay
    • 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market
      • 12.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 12.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 12.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
      • 12.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 12.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market
      • 12.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 12.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 13. Peru
    • 13.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
    • 13.2 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 14. Puerto Rico
    • 14.1 Forecasts – mobile market
  • 15. Uruguay
    • 15.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market
      • 15.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 15.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 15.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market
      • 15.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 15.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 15.3 Forecasts - mobile market
      • 15.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 15.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 16. Venezuela
    • 16.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 16.2 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 1 – LAC countries – estimated broadband and internet subscribers, penetration - 2015 (e)
    • Table 2 – LAC countries – mobile subscribers and penetration - 1998 – 2015(e)
    • Table 3 – LAC countries – mobile subscribers, penetration - 2011 - 2015
    • Table 4 – Argentina - Forecast broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 5 – Argentina - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 6 – Bolivia - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2012 – 2013; 2015; 2017
    • Table 7 – Bolivia - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - 2012 – 2013; 2015; 2017
    • Table 8 – Brazil - Forecast fixed lines –– 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 9 – – Brazil - Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017, 2020
    • Table 10 – – Brazil - Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 11 – – Brazil - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 12 – – Brazil - Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 13 – Chile - Forecast broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 14 – Chile - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 15 – Colombia - Forecast broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 16 – Colombia - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 17 – Dominican Republic - Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
    • Table 18 – Dominican Republic - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher market scenario – 2011 - 2016
    • Table 19 – Ecuador - Forecast broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 20 – Ecuador - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 21 – Jamaica - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 22 – Jamaica - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 23 – Mexico - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 24 – Mexico - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 25 – Panama - Forecast fixed-line growth – higher growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 26 – Panama - Forecast fixed-line growth – lower growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 27 – Panama - Forecast broadband growth – higher growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 28 – Panama - Forecast broadband growth – lower growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 29 – Panama - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – higher growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 30 – Panama - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – lower growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 31 – Paraguay - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 32 – Paraguay - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 33 – Paraguay - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 34 – Paraguay - Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2013; 2015; 2020
    • Table 35 – Paraguay - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 36 – Paraguay - Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 37 – Peru - Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 38 – Peru - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 39 – Puerto Rico - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 40 – Uruguay - Forecast fixed line subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 41 – Uruguay - Forecast fixed line subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 42 – Uruguay - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 43 – Uruguay - Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
    • Table 44 – Uruguay - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 45 – Uruguay - Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 46 – Venezuela - Forecast broadband subscribers –– 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 47 – Venezuela - Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2017; 2020

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 38

Status Archived

Last updated 5 Feb 2016
Update History

Analyst: Henry Lancaster

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