2011 Mexico - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

Publication Overview

For those seeking high level strategic information and objective analysis on Mexico, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

  • Forecast growth in select telecommunication markets;
  • The emerging trends and convergence in the Mexican voice, broadband and digital TV sectors;
  • How Mexico is faring in terms of global broadband development;
  • The growth of wireless voice and data and the deployment of 3G and 4G technologies;
  • Key information on the major telecommunication operators;
  • Scenario forecasts for the fixed line, mobile, and broadband markets.

Researcher:- Lawrence Baker
Current publication date:- August 2011 (10th Edition)

Executive Summary

Mexico setting the stage for increased mobile sector competition

BuddeComm’s annual publication, ‘Mexico - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts’, profiles the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets in Mexico. The publication also examines the convergence of these technologies with each other and with digital media such as digital TV and the emergence of new telecommunication services such as VoIP.

Mexico’s GDP plunged 6.5% in 2009 however recorded positive growth of 5% in 2010, with exports leading the way, while domestic consumption and investment lagged. As the economy recovers, ongoing economic and social concerns include low real wages, underemployment for a large segment of the population and inequitable income distribution. In the lead up to the 2012 elections, top economic priorities remain reducing poverty and creating jobs.

In relation to the telecommunications industry specifically, industry growth has long outpaced the broader economic growth. For instance in the decade from 1990 to 2000, the industry grew at an average three times faster per year then the broader economy. The robust growth of recent years has been driven primarily by the mobile and broadband sectors.

The predominance of mobile phones over fixed lines, prevalent in all of Latin America, is expected to continue in Mexico. The satellite TV broadcasting sector will continue to enjoy robust growth in 2011/12 and cable TV companies will continue to drive the growth in VoIP and triple play services.

This report contains overviews, analyses and detailed statistics of the Mexican fixed-line, mobile, digital broadcasting and broadband markets including developments in emerging technologies such as wireless broadband and VoIP and scenario forecasts for the mobile and broadband markets.

Market highlights:

  • Into 2011 Mexico’s telecommunications industry maintained double figure annual growth.
  • Mexico remains the last country in the OECD yet to unbundle its local loop. Thus despite liberalisation, Telmex still dominates the fixed-line market with over 80% of lines. Teledensity continues to languish at approximately 17%, around average for Latin America. Moreover, there are significant disparities in fixed-line penetration between urban and rural areas.
  • The mobile sector remains one of the main drivers of telecom industry growth and grew at approximately 10% per annum, achieving more than 85% penetration by mid 2011.
  • By 2011 Telmex’s sister company, América Móvil (Telcel), still accounted for 70% of the mobile market.
  • Telefonica’s Movistar was successful in spectrum auctions in 2010 and the market is set for further upheaval after Televisa bought a 50% stake in Iusacell thus injecting capital for investment.
  • Broadband is the other principal driver of growth in Mexico’s telecommunications market. Both cable modem and ADSL continued to enjoy strong subscriber growth into 2011 at a combined average growth rate of over 20%.
  • The main cable TV providers, Megacable, Cablemás and Cablevisión, were making strong gains by successfully incentivising the purchase of triple play bundles of cable TV, broadband and telephony. As a result their broadband subscriber base and in particular their VoIP subscriber numbers witnessed healthy growth during 2009 and into 2010 although this had dropped off moving into 2011.
  • During 2009 the DTH satellite TV market enjoyed some of its highest growth rates for the decade, following the entry of Dish Mexico in 2008. Into 2011 sectoral growth remained at 10% in the first quarter.
  • Regulatory gamesmanship continues to typify the sector and Cofetel still requires greater independence and regulatory power in order to be able to properly foster a more competitive market.

Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2012; 2016

Year

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2010 (BYE)

90

81%

2011

96

85%

2012

102

89%

2016

117

98%

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

Notes: BYE is Base Year Estimate.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Key Statistics
  • 2. Country Overview
    • 2.1 Background
    • 2.2 Mexico’s economy
  • 3. Telecommunications Market
    • 3.1 Background
    • 3.2 Overview
  • 4. Regulatory Environment
    • 4.1 Overview
      • 4.1.1 Privatisation
      • 4.1.2 Deregulation
      • 4.1.3 Foreign investment rules
    • 4.2 Regulatory authorities
  • 5. Fixed Network Market
    • 5.1.1 Background
    • 5.1.2 Overview
    • 5.1.3 Fixed-line statistics
    • 6. Internet Market
      • 6.2 Overview
      • 6.3 Internet statistics
        • 6.3.1 Internet and broadband statistics
    • 7. Broadband Market
      • 7.1 Overview
      • 7.2 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
        • 7.2.1 Prodigy Infinitum (Telmex)
      • 7.3 Cable broadband
        • 7.3.1 Megacable
        • 7.3.2 Cablemás
        • 7.3.3 Cablevisión
      • 7.4 Wireless broadband
        • 7.4.1 WiFi
        • 7.4.2 Early WiMAX developments
      • 7.5 Internet via satellite
      • 7.6 Utilities broadband
        • 7.6.1 Utilities communications
        • 7.6.2 Smart grid technology
      • 7.7 Triple play and VoIP developments
    • 8. Digital Media
      • 8.1 Digital TV broadcasting
        • 8.1.1 Overview
        • 8.1.2 Cable TV (CATV)
        • 8.1.3 Direct-to-Home (DTH) Satellite TV
        • 8.1.4 Pay TV statistics
    • 9. Mobile Communications
      • 9.1 Overview of Mexico’s mobile (cell phone) market
        • 9.1.1 Mobile market statistics
      • 9.2 Regulatory issues
        • 9.2.1 Regulatory authorities
        • 9.2.2 Spectrum auctions
      • 9.3 Mobile technologies
        • 9.3.1 Overview
      • 9.4 Major mobile operators
        • 9.4.1 Telcel
        • 9.4.2 Movistar
        • 9.4.3 Grupo Iusacell
        • 9.4.4 Nextel de México
      • 9.5 Mobile voice services
        • 9.5.1 Minutes of Use (MOU)
        • 9.5.2 Prepaid
        • 9.5.3 Satellite mobile
      • 9.6 Mobile data services
        • 9.6.1 SMS Text Messaging
        • 9.6.2 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
        • 9.6.3 Push-to-Talk (PTT)
    • 10. Forecasts
      • 10.1 Broadband forecasts
      • 10.2 Mobile market forecasts – 2011 - 2016
      • 10.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
    • 11. Glossary of Abbreviations
    • Table 1 – Country statistics – 2011
    • Table 2 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2009 - 2011
    • Table 3 – Telephone network statistics – 2011
    • Table 4 – Internet provider statistics – 2011
    • Table 5 – Internet user statistics – 2011
    • Table 6 – Broadband statistics – 2011
    • Table 7 – Mobile statistics – 2011
    • Table 8 – National telecommunications authorities
    • Table 9 – Fixed lines in service, annual change and teledensity – 1996 - 2011
    • Table 10 – Internet users, annual change and penetration rate - 2000 – 2012
    • Table 11 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2000 - 2011
    • Table 12 – Location of computer use - 2005 - 2010
    • Table 13 - Prodigy Infinitum ADSL subscriber lines and annual change – 2002 – 2011
    • Table 14 – Megacable cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2001 – 2011
    • Table 15 – Megacable internet ARPU – 2007 - 2011
    • Table 16 – Cablemás cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2002 – 2011
    • Table 17 – Cablemás broadband ARPU and churn – 2006 - 2010
    • Table 18 – Cablevisión cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2002 – 2011
    • Table 19 – Cable VoIP subscribers of major providers – 2006 - 2011
    • Table 20 – Pay TV subscribers by technology, annual change and penetration rate – 1998 - 2011
    • Table 21 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – 2010
    • Table 22 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate – 2000 - 2011
    • Table 23 – Mobile market share by major operator – 2001 - 2011
    • Table 24 – Telcel subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2010
    • Table 25 – Telcel churn, monthly minutes of use and ARPU – 2008 - 2010
    • Table 26 – Movistar subscribers and annual change – 2001 - 2010
    • Table 27 – Movistar churn, minutes of use and ARPU – 2008 - 2010
    • Table 28 – Iusacell subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2010
    • Table 29 – Unefón subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2007
    • Table 30 – Monthly and yearly minutes of use and annual change – 2000 - 2011
    • Table 31 – Prepaid / postpaid subscribers and annual change – 1997 - 2011
    • Table 32 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
    • Table 33 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
    • Table 34 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2012; 2016
    • Table 35 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher growth scenario – 2010 - 2012; 2016
    • Chart 1 – Internet users and penetration rate – 2000 – 2012
    • Chart 2 – Prodigy Infinitum ADSL subscriber lines and annual change – 2002 – 2011
    • Chart 3 – Megacable cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2001 – 2011
    • Chart 4– Cablemás cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2002 – 2010
    • Chart 5– Cablevisión cable modem subscribers and annual change – 2002 – 2011
    • Chart 6 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2000 – 2010
    • Chart 7 – Telcel subscribers and annual change – 2000 – 2010
    • Chart 8 – Movistar subscribers and annual change – 2001 – 2010
    • Chart 9 – Iusacell subscribers and annual change – 2000 – 2010
    • Chart 10 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower growth scenario – 2010 – 2016
    • Chart 11 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher growth scenario – 2010 – 2016
    • Exhibit 1 – Map of Mexico
    • Exhibit 2 – Triple play case study – Megacable

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