2011 Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

FttH network reach expected to grow by a third in 2012

BuddeComm’s half-yearly publication, Denmark - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecoms and digital media sectors in one of Europe’s more progressive markets. The report includes the regulator’s market data for the first half of 2011, data from its ‘Broadband Survey 2011’ report, telcos’ operating and financial data to end-2011, and market developments into 2012.

Telecom sector background

Denmark’s competitive telecom sector has been stimulated by the government’s efforts to develop wide-scale FttH services capable of 1Gb/s by 2020. The excellent fixed-line platform is complemented by regulatory measures to allow MNOs to refarm spectrum for 3G and 4G use, while an imminent auction for 800MHz spectrum will further push mobile broadband connectivity in coming years. Fixed-line telephony penetration is low, and continues to fall as consumers adopt VoIP and mobile alternatives. Overall revenue has been affected by the poor economic climate, being stagnant since 2008. This has also affected investment among telcos, which have concentrated on expanding their mobile and fibre-based networks, and securing spectrum.

Broadband sector

Denmark’s broadband penetration is among the highest in the world. DSL accounts for more than half of all lines though this lead will diminish steadily in coming years as consumers are migrated to alternative FttH networks. The cable sector, which reaches two-thirds of premises, is likely to be resilient as a result of network upgrades by the dominant players YouSee, Stofa and Dansk Kabel. Fibre is the fastest developing sector, with the number of reached premises expected to grow by a third in 2012. By the end of 2012 more than half of all premises will be able to access 100Mb/s services.

Mobile sector

The mature mobile market in coming years will be focussed on the data sector. MNOs have expanded HSPA and LTE capabilities using the recently auctioned 2.6GHz band, while an auction later in 2012 will make 800MHz frequencies available. MNOs have also begun marketing LTE-compatible smartphones and tablets, enabling consumers to move away from dongles. Mobile data will represent a growing proportion of revenue in coming years, offsetting declining voice revenue.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013

(Source: BuddeComm)

Market Highlights

• Licensees for spectrum the 800MHz band must provide mobile broadband services of at least 10Mb/s. Spectrum will be available from the beginning of 2013 with coverage obligations to be fulfilled by 2015.
• The cable sector has been consolidated to two main players: TDC’s YouSee and Stofa. These operators now enjoyed greater scale to invest in DOCSIS3.0 technology and so retain customers in areas where FttH is being rolled out.
• The government has continued with measures to facilitate municipal access to fibre infrastructure in a bid to ensure that 80% households have a 50Mb/s service by 2013, and that 1Gb/s services are widely available by 2020. Sympathetic regulatory treatment will propel the fibre sector in coming years, with Denmark expected to have among the more concentrated FttH networks in Europe within the next decade. In 2012, the reach of FttX networks is expected to increase by at least 35%.

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Denmark. It provides further information on:

• Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
• The impact of the global economic crisis;
• Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
• Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards in 2012;
• 3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
• Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
• Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
• ARPU statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.