2008 European - Cable and Fibre Market

Publication Overview

This report covers developments in Europe’s cable and fibre broadband markets

 

The countries covered in this report include: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia (FYROM), Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and United Kingdom.

 

Researchers:- Henry Lancaster, Paul Kwon

Current publication date:- March 2009 (5th Edition)

Next publication date:- Jan 2010

Executive Summary

The cable sector, having lost broadband market share to DSL alternatives, has recently been revitalised by the continuing consolidation among operators, particularly in Germany, which has enabled them to invest in network upgrades. Using DOCSIS 3.0 technology, Virgin Media in the UK and UPC in its several European markets provide the fastest copper-based services available. Their plans to upgrade to a 200Mb/s service by 2012 will place them on a par with Europe’s FttH providers. Cable broadband also continues to enjoy popularity in Central Eastern Europe and the Baltic region where a handful of major players have emerged following merger and acquisition activity. Cable is also popular in Russia, Bulgaria and Romania. Most major cablecos have also launched triple play offerings.

Europe’s fibre market has out-performed cable and DSL in terms of growth since 2007, yet the region still lags behind Asia and the USA. Most of the growth in FttH is based in only a few countries, while more than half of all connections are managed by only five operators. The rest of the region lags far behind, and new-build activity – particularly in the ten new EU member states (Slovenia being the exception) – remains low. Yet
stimulated by government policies and favourable regulatory regimes, new access network deployments are now centred on fibre. The financial factors which initially restricted deployments to densely populated areas will be partly overcome during the next few years as national governments and the EC allocate funds to improve broadband infrastructure. Regulated access models aimed at facilitating competition and reducing civil engineering costs will also result in faster growth in the fibre market. Within Eastern Europe significant FTTx networks have been deployed across the region, including Albania, Russia, Estonia and the Czech Republic. FTTx deployments have a bright future in the region in coming years given the lack of extensive fixed line infrastructure in many countries.

 

Key highlights:

France

France is among the top three countries in Europe for fibre deployment. Since 2005, central and municipal governments have been at the forefront in pushing a national fibre strategy. Much of the market’s success has been achieved by alternative operators, which in turn has stimulated France Telecom to adopt an aggressive fibre roll-out as well as promote equal network access among providers. The August 2008 Economic Modernisation Law (EML) included a number of provisions for network sharing, and forms a key component of France’s regulatory framework designed to achieve widespread fibre deployment. As a result, the major providers Numéricable, Orange and SFR have agreed to share fibre installations between themselves and open them to other operators. Given the regulatory provisions and operator co-operation, in coming years France will retain its position as a leading fibre nation both in terms of network deployment and in effective strategies.

 

The UK

The UK was comparatively slow to develop its fibre sector, but considerable changes are expected by 2012 as a newly adopted regulatory regime provides operators with guaranteed returns on investments, so stimulating the business case for developing network builds. BT’s NGN, providing hybrid VDSL / FttC to up to ten million households, is expected to be supplemented by up to one million households with FttH connections in a program costing up to £1.5 billion. The regulator’s approach of removing wholesale access regulatory barriers should stimulate fibre builds in coming years, and so propel the country to the forefront f fibre infrastructure in Europe.

 

The Netherlands

The Netherlands is one of Europe’s top markets for both cable and fibre. The incumbent KPN and its part-owned provider Reggefiber operate a wholesale access service through their joint venture Glashart. Some of the conditions required from the Dutch regulator and cartel authority include a guarantee that other telcos have non-discriminatory access to the network at a fixed wholesale rate. The Netherlands has also benefited from innovative municipal involvement in fibre roll-outs, particularly in Amsterdam and Rotterdam. The sector has also been characterised by the wide range of non-telco activity, including the direct involvement of construction companies, individuals digging their own trenches, real estate investors and pension funds. Given these collective efforts, The Netherlands has shown the rest of Europe than FttH can be developed through the initiative of players other than the major telcos and cabelcos.

 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

 

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

·         This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.

·         The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.

·         All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Fibre Regulatory Overview
    • 1.1 The need for fibre
      • 1.1.1 Arguments for fibre
      • 1.1.2 Supporting the triple play market
    • 1.2 Regulating access
      • 1.2.1 The EC’s strategy
    • 1.3 Structural separation
      • 1.3.1 Fibre networks
      • 1.3.2 Regulating access
      • 1.3.3 Operators’ strategy
    • 1.4 Examples of open access
      • 1.4.1 France
      • 1.4.2 Sweden
      • 1.4.3 The Netherlands
  • 2. Albania
    • 2.1 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
      • 2.1.1 Albanian Fibre Backbone (AFB)
  • 3. Austria
    • 3.1 FttH networks
    • 3.2 Cable modems
      • 3.2.1 UPC Austria
  • 4. Belarus
    • 4.1 Cable modems
  • 5. Belgium
    • 5.1 Cable modems
      • 5.1.1 Telenet
      • 5.1.2 UPC Broadband
      • 5.1.3 Interkabel
    • 5.2 FttH networks
      • 5.2.1 Digital Metropolis Antwerp
  • 6. Bosnia-Herzegovina
    • 6.1 Overview
  • 7. Bulgaria
    • 7.1 Cable
    • 7.2 FttH networks
  • 8. Croatia
    • 8.1 Cable modems
    • 8.2 FttH networks
  • 9. Cyprus
    • 9.1 Cable broadband
    • 9.2 FttH networks
  • 10. Czech Republic
    • 10.1 Cable modems
    • 10.2 FttH networks
  • 11. Denmark
    • 11.1 Cable modems
    • 11.2 FttH networks
      • 11.2.1 Community networks
  • 12. Estonia
    • 12.1 Cable modems
    • 12.2 FttH networks
  • 13. Finland
    • 13.1 Cable modems
    • 13.2 FttH networks
  • 14. France
    • 14.1 Cable modems
      • 14.1.1 Cable network agreements
      • 14.1.2 Cable consolidation
      • 14.1.3 Numéricable
      • 14.1.4 UPC France
    • 14.2 FttH networks
      • 14.2.1 Regulatory issues
      • 14.2.2 Regional support
      • 14.2.3 Local authorities
      • 14.2.4 Fibre operators and projects
  • 15. Germany
    • 15.1 Cable modems
      • 15.1.1 Cable market consolidation
      • 15.1.2 Cable players
    • 15.2 FttH networks
      • 15.2.1 Deutsche Telekom
      • 15.2.2 Other developments
  • 16. Hungary
    • 16.1 Cable modems
    • 16.2 FttH networks
  • 17. Iceland
    • 17.1 FttH networks
      • 17.1.1 Statstics
  • 18. Ireland
    • 18.1 Cable modems
    • 18.2 FttH networks
  • 19. Italy
    • 19.1 Cable modems
    • 19.2 FttH networks
      • 19.2.1 Telecom Italia
      • 19.2.2 FASTWEB
  • 20. Latvia
    • 20.1 Cable modems
    • 20.2 FttH networks
  • 21. Lithuania
    • 21.1 Cable modems
    • 21.2 FttH networks
  • 22. Luxembourg
    • 22.1 Cable modems
    • 22.2 FttH networks
  • 23. Macedonia (FYROM)
    • 23.1 Overview
  • 24. Malta
    • 24.1 Cable modems
  • 25. Moldova
    • 25.1 Overview
  • 26. Montenegro
    • 26.1 Overview
  • 27. Netherlands
    • 27.1 Cable modems
      • 27.1.1 Ziggo
      • 27.1.2 UPC Nederland
    • 27.2 FttH networks
      • 27.2.1 Government support
      • 27.2.2 Regulating fibre
      • 27.2.3 Government, councils and telcos involved
  • 28. Norway
    • 28.1 Cable modems
    • 28.2 FttH networks
  • 29. Poland
    • 29.1 Cable modems
    • 29.2 FttH networks
  • 30. Portugal
    • 30.1 Cable modems
    • 30.2 FttH networks
  • 31. Romania
    • 31.1 Cable modems
    • 31.2 FttH networks
  • 32. Russia
    • 32.1 Cable modems
    • 32.2 FttH networks
  • 33. Serbia
    • 33.1 Cable broadband
      • 33.1.1 Kosovo
  • 34. Slovakia
    • 34.1 Cable modems
    • 34.2 FttH networks
  • 35. Slovenia
    • 35.1 Cable modems
    • 35.2 FttH networks
  • 36. Spain
    • 36.1 Cable modems
      • 36.1.1 Statstics
      • 36.1.2 ONO
    • 36.2 FttH networks
      • 36.2.1 Regulatory issues
      • 36.2.2 Telefónica
      • 36.2.3 Asturcón network
      • 36.2.4 22@Barcelona project
  • 37. Sweden
    • 37.1 Cable
      • 37.1.1 Com Hem
    • 37.2 FttH networks
      • 37.2.1 Overview
      • 37.2.2 TeliaSonera
      • 37.2.3 Regulating dark fibre
      • 37.2.4 Bredbandsbolaget
      • 37.2.5 PiteEnergi
  • 38. Switzerland
    • 38.1 Cable modems
      • 38.1.1 Cablecom
    • 38.2 FttH networks
  • 39. Ukraine
    • 39.1 Cable modems
    • 39.2 FttH networks
  • 40. United Kingdom
    • 40.1 Cable modems
    • 40.2 FttH networks
      • 40.2.1 Costing fibre
      • 40.2.2 Fibre access and Community Broadband Access networks
      • 40.2.3 BT
      • 40.2.4 Other developments
  • 41. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Free projections - Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
  • Table 2 – Forecast fibre subscribers – weaker and stronger scenarios in the Netherlands - 2008 - 2011; 2017
  • Table 3 – Fibre broadband subscribers in Austria – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 4 – UPC Austria broadband subscribers – 2005 - 2007
  • Table 5 – UPC Austria revenue – 2005 - 2007
  • Table 6 – Cable modem subscribers in Belgium – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 7 – Telenet broadband subscribers – 2002 - 2008
  • Table 8 – Telenet subscribers by sector – 2008
  • Table 9 – UPC Belgium subscriber data (historic) – 2006
  • Table 10 – FttH subscribers in Bulgaria – 2007
  • Table 11 – Cable subscribers in Cyprus – 2007
  • Table 12 – Broadband subscribers by access type in the Czech Republic – 2007
  • Table 13 – Cable broadband market shares by operator in Denmark – 2004 - 2007
  • Table 14 – Market share of cable broadband by data speed in Denmark – 2006 - 2007
  • Table 15 – Fibre broadband subscribers in Denmark – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 16 – Broadband coverage by technology in Denmark – 2001; 2003; 2007
  • Table 17 – Broadband subscribers by alternative technologies in Denmark – 2005 - 2007
  • Table 18 – Broadband subscribers by access type in Estonia – 2007
  • Table 19 – Cable modem subscribers in France – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 20 – Numéricable subscribers by type – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 21 – UPC France operating data (historic) – 2005
  • Table 22 – France Telecom fibre subscribers – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 23 – Free projections – Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
  • Table 24 – Cable subscribers in Germany – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 25 – Kabel BW subscribers – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 26 – Kabel Deutschland financial data – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 27 – Kabel Deutschland subscribers and annual change – June 2008
  • Table 28 – Unitymedia subscribers – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 29 – Unitymedia financial data – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 30 – T-Kabel broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2007
  • Table 31 – FttH subscribers in Hungary – 2007
  • Table 32 – Total broadband subscribers and penetration rate in Iceland – 2001 - 2007
  • Table 33 – Broadband penetration by access type in Iceland – 2004 - 2008
  • Table 34 – Fibre subscribers in Iceland – 2005 - 2007
  • Table 35 – UPC Ireland subscribers – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 36 – UPC Ireland subscribers – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 37 – Fibre accesses in Italy – 2004 - 2008
  • Table 38 – Telecom Italia fibre accesses – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 39 – Telecom Italia fibre cabinet network – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 40 – FttH subscribers in Latvia – 2007
  • Table 41 – Broadband subscribers by access type in Lithuania – 2007
  • Table 42 – FttH subscribers in Luxembourg – January 2008
  • Table 43 – Cable broadband penetration in Malta – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 44 – Broadband subscribers by access type and penetration rate in Moldova – 2001 - 2007
  • Table 45 – Cable modem subscribers in the Netherlands – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 46 – Ziggo financial data – 2006 - 2007
  • Table 47 – Ziggo operating and subscriber data – 2006 - 2007
  • Table 48 – UPC Nederland subscribers – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 49 – Total broadband subscribers (cable modem, xDSL, fibre) in the Netherlands – 1999 - 2008
  • Table 50 – FttH connections and subscribers in the Netherlands – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 51 – Planned FttH connections in the Netherlands – 2007 - 2011
  • Table 52 – Cable subscribers in Norway – 1999 - 2008
  • Table 53 – Get subscribers and operating statistics (historic) – 2005 - 2006
  • Table 54 – Fibre subscribers in Norway – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 55 – ZON Multimédia cable broadband subscribers – 2004 - 2008
  • Table 56 – Cable subscriptions in Serbia – 2004 - 2007
  • Table 57 – FttH subscribers in Slovakia – 2007
  • Table 58 – Broadband subscribers by access type in Slovenia – 2007
  • Table 59 – Cable modem subscribers in Spain – 2000 - 2009
  • Table 60 – Share of cable accesses in Spain – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 61 – Cable subscribers by operator in Spain – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 62 – Share of cable broadband revenue in Spain – 2007
  • Table 63 – ONO financial data – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 64 – ONO cable subscribers – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 65 – ONO subscribers by sector – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 66 – ONO broadband monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 67 – Cable broadband subscribers in Sweden – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 68 – Com Hem subscriber statistics – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 69 – Com Hem financial data – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 70 – Fibre connections in Sweden – June 2008
  • Table 71 – Bredbandsbolaget subscribers by sector – 2004 - 2008
  • Table 72 – Bredbandsbolaget financial data – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 73 – Cablecom operational data: home and subscriber statistics – 2005 - 2008
  • Table 74 – Virgin Media subscribers by sector – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 75 – Virgin Media ARPU – 2007 - 2008
  • Table 76 – Virgin Media broadband subscribers by speed of service – 2007 - 2008
  • Exhibit 1 – Structural separation developments – 2009
  • Exhibit 2 – Overview of FttH and FttB
  • Exhibit 3 – Plan of action and targets in the Netherlands – 2003 - 2015
  • Exhibit 4 – Estimated cost of fibre by deployment technology in the UK – 2008

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Number of pages 112

Status Archived

Last updated 11 Mar 2009
Update History

Analyst: Henry Lancaster

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