Australia Telecommunications - Market Forecasts 2005-2015


The telco crisis from the early 00s threw our long-term forecasts out by three to five years. While our underlaying growth elements all remain in place it will take several more years to realise their results. Demand across all telco markets remains strong, even during the crisis. It is however, the structure of the industry which is totally dominated by Telstra that is stifling growth. It is unlikely that the incumbent will see significant growth before 2007. The report provides long-range forecast by markets, products and industry groups up to 2015.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Forecasts
    • 2.1 Bright future ahead
    • 2.2 Developments will be non-linear
    • 2.3 The market in ten years time
  • 3. Forecasting discussion with Terry Retter (PwC)
    • 3.1 Setting the scene with PwC forecast
    • 3.2 New technologies – new business processes – new business models
    • 3.3 Higher ARPUs in broadbanded countries
    • 3.4 Australia is rapidly becoming outdated
    • 3.5 Expect dramatic changes between 2005 and 2008
  • 4. Disruption: consumer behaviour or industry problems?
  • 5. Glimpses of the future
    • 5.1 New developments
    • 5.2 New companies based on nextgen
    • 5.3 Need for bandwidth in the CAN
    • 5.4 Wireless broadband a disruptive parallel technology
    • 5.5 IP and broadband TV
  • 6. Fastest-growing industry on the planet
    • 6.1 No problems at the demand side
    • 6.2 More at stake than shareholders’ value
    • 6.3 Massive structural industry changes
  • 7. Related reports
  • Exhibit 1 – New public network concept
  • Exhibit 2 – Market developments not pre-empted by the industry
  • Exhibit 3 – Nextgen telecoms
  • Exhibit 4 – A changing industry - 2000 - 2008
  • Exhibit 5 – Massive restructuring is now overdue

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Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 9

Status Archived

Last updated 30 Jun 2004
Update History

Analyst: Peter Evans

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