Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
While fixed-line telephony traffic and revenue in Australia are declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily. Fixed-line broadband on the copper network is also declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available. In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as VoLTE.
Penetration in the fixed-line market has been falling at an increasing rate over the past five years. A major reason for this is the dominance of the mobile segment and the growth of mobile broadband. The market is predicted to further decline over the next few years as both mobile and mobile broadband penetration continue to increase.
There has been some consolidation in the market through the merger of the key players VHA and TPG, as also a number of acquisitions involving fixed-line suppliers. The second-tier market continues to grow strongly although it has eased off to some degree.
Within the Australian fixed broadband market, there is a dynamic shift among customers to fibre networks. This infrastructure is being built out by nbn (rebranded from NBN Co in 2015), the company responsible for deploying the National Broadband Network (NBN) which is based on a multi-technology mix including VDSL, fibre, HFC, fixed wireless, and satellite. The DSL sector will steadily shrink as customers are migrated to the NBN, while subscribers on HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided by existing cable within the NBN’s multi-technology mix.
The mobile market is dominated by the three MNOs Telstra, Optus, and TPG Telecom. These offer LTE services on a wholesale basis, thus encouraging growth in the LTE sector, while also deploying services based on 5G. The sector is supported by a significant number of MVNOs, including amaysim, Kogan Mobile, Aldi Mobile, Ovo Mobile, and Boost Mobile.
BuddeComm notes that the pandemic continues to have a significant impact on consumer spending due to pressure from the financial effects of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. Network operators, too, are likely to exercise caution and scale back on discretionary capital expenditure. However, due to the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
42-24, AARNET, Aldi Mobile, Alcatel Submarine Networks, Altice Portugal, amaysim, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Austar, Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC), Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), Aware Super, Basslink Telecoms, Bechtel, Boost Mobile, BTB Australia, Bureau of Communications, Arts and Regional Research (BCARR), Disney, EnergyAustralia, Ericsson, Facebook, FetchTV, Fibercorp, Foxtel, Google, H2 Cable, Hawaiki Submarine Cable LP, Hayu, Huawei, Hulu, iiNet, Indosat Ooredoo, Inmarsat, Kogan, KPN, LBNCo, Lebara Mobile, Linfox, LoRa Alliance, M2, Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets (MIRA), Macquarie Telecom. Microsoft, MTData, Myriota, nbn (NBN Co), Netflix, New Skies Satellite, NICTA, NNNCo, Nokia, NSW Road and Management Services, NTT, O3b, Omantel, OneWeb, OPENetworks, OptiComm, OPT-NC, Optus, Orange Business Services, Ovo Mobile, PCCW, Pivit, Primus, RedTrain, Samsung, Securatrak, SES, Sigfox, SingTel, Softbank Corp, Software AG, SpaceX, Spark New Zealand, Stan, SUB.CO, Superloop, Sydney Water, TasNetworks, Telkom South Africa, Telstra, Thinxtra, TPG Telecom, TransACT, Uniti Group, Unwired, VHA, Viasat, Virgin Mobile, Visionstream, Vividwireless, Vocus, Vodafone, Vodafone Hutchison Australia.
for this – it’s been a real pleasure dealing with you – great service!
Jo Chaffer, British Council
BuddeComm's strategic business reports contain a combination of both primary and secondary research statistics, analyses written by our senior analysts supported by a network of experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the world as well as our own scenario forecasts.
For more details, please see:
A selection of downloadable samples from our Annual Publications catalogue.
Have the latest telecommunications industry news delivered to your inbox by subscribing to Paul's FREE weekly News & Views.