2015 Australia - Telecoms Market Analyses - Top Trends Moving into 2016
This annual publication provides analysis on the telecoms market moving into 2016. It includes forecasts, overviews and discussions on:
Industry consolidation and cost cutting set to continue;
Video streaming puts pressure on the quality of the NBN;
Mobile broadband traffic explosion driven by transactions initiated by smartphone devices;
Telco industry slow in its transformation;
Winners are assets and people light and use horizontal collaboration and the sharing economy;
New opportunities in: healthcare, education, government services, smart grids, smart cities, connected homes, wearable technologies, IoT and M2M;
Telstra is taking a leadership role in some of these developments, not just here also internationally;
NBN – FttH passed 1 million, FttN roll out start in all earnest after a 3 year delay in 2016;
LTE (4 ½ G) is fuelling developments in IoT and M2M;
Data analytic capabilities are opening up opportunities for new wealth creation and new jobs;
Well connected communities are leading the trend towards smart cities;
Data retention and web blocking laws will not solve the cybercrime problems .
Researchers:- Paul Budde, Henry Lancaster Current publication date:- July 2015 (28th Edition)
Disruption: challenges and opportunities for the telco industry
The Australian telecommunications market is continuing to see consolidation, as traditional services are being further commoditised and digital media companies are offering new communication services, free or at significantly lower cost. Thanks to new video streaming services such as Netflix, and an increased use of mobile broadband for a range of applications, people’s use of broadband has increased; however a squeeze on margins of services such as broadband access doesn’t mean that such increased usage of telecommunications also accounts for any significant increases in industry revenues.
The industry will still need to further transform itself in order to be able to handle the dynamics of the market, which include lower margins, commoditisation, new technologies and competition from outside the traditional market. The new billion dollar companies in the digital media are light on assets and light on staff; and their business models are based on transactions facilitated by their software-based services and done in an automated way by the users of their assets, using algorithms, big data, cloud computing and datacentres.
There are plenty of new opportunities in the market. Now that the quality of broadband access is improving – albeit still rather slowly – new markets are opening up in healthcare, education, government services, smart grids, smart cities, connected homes, wearable technologies, IoT and M2M – the list goes on. Telecommunications companies should take a leadership role in these developments but so far the key developments in these areas come from other organisations. Telstra is an exception here, with the leadership role it plays in the development of the e-health market in Australia.
For the time being, however, cost-cutting, consolidation and mergers will continue to dominate the telco industry. At the same time an ongoing barrage of innovations, new technologies, new apps and new services will shape the telecoms market. It is an extremely dynamic market with lots of twists and turns, set to continue into 2016 and beyond.
Other key topics that are discussed in this report include
National Broadband Network - Developments and Analyses 2015
By mid-2015 over a million premises were able to connect to the NBN – so far most of them have access to the original NBN, three-quarters have access to FttH, the remainder to wireless and satellite networks. The revised rollout of the so-called multi-mix technology (DSL and HFC) will start in earnest in 2016.There still is no long-term plan for when and how to upgrade from the older technologies to proper FttH; however the Opposition has indicated that if it wins the next election it will revive the FttH plan, but will take into account the circumstances that exist at that time.
M2M and The Internet of Things
With the NBN and LTE now well and truly underway it is important to look at what will be the real value of this new infrastructure.
This ‘Internet of Things’ (M2M, Pervasive Internet and Industrial Internet) is going to be a real game-changer. It will transform every single sector of society and the economy and it will be out of this environment that new businesses – and indeed new industries – will be born. This is one of the reasons so many overseas ICT companies are increasing their presence in Australia. The LTE will take a leadership role in the development of M2M but the NBN is also an ideal test-bed for such developments. A great deal of attention is being paid to cloud computing and the NBN can be viewed as one gigantic cloud.
The number of connected M2M devices will grow to somewhere between 25 million and 50 million by 2020.
BuddeComm describes ‘big data’ as looking at intelligent outcomes that can be achieved from data collaboration.
The most critical issue here is strategic management, rather than technology. However the fact that big data has become a vital tool in competition is forcing many companies to transform their organisations from a company-centric approach to a customer-centric one.
Connected information management, however, can go much further. There are many other players involved in the broader ecosystem, and by sharing and combining relevant data sets and then analysing those large data sets we can find new correlations that can be used to spot business trends, assess customer behaviour, prevent diseases, combat crime and so on.
Smart Cities, Smart Infrastructure
The development of smart cities and indeed smart countries require vision and recognition of the fact that many of today’s social, economic and sustainability problems can only be solved with the assistance of ICT. In many situations the ubiqueness, affordability, capacity, robustness, security and quality necessary for this calls for fibre optic and high-speed wireless infrastructures. This need will increase dramatically over the next 5 to 10 years as industries and whole sectors (healthcare, energy, transport, water) carry out the process of transforming themselves in order to much better address the challenges ahead.
Cyber Crime, Privacy and Copyright issues
With the internet having become critical national and international infrastructure a whole range of privacy and issues have come to the fore in relation to the digital economy and the digital society.
Some of these issues are in relation to national and international security and tens of billions are spent by governments using the internet as a surveillance tool. This has led to a frenzy of activity by governments to, on the one hand, protect their sovereignty and, on the other, use the internet for their own security activities.
Separate to this are the commercial issues. With internet services becoming pervasive it can be argued, rightly or wrongly, that there are some services that people simply have to have. This is exploited by the companies involved, with requests for a range of highly private data in exchange for the free use of these applications and services.
Table of Contents
1. Analyses Telecoms Market – 2015
1.1 General Analyses
1.1.1 The Budget: good initiatives to assist the digital transformation
1.1.2 How to better balance the Federal Budget?
1.1.3 50 Year Anniversary of “Moore’s Law”: Optimism or Pessimism for the Future?
1.1.4 Strategic scenario forecasting validated
1.2 Australia International Analyses relevant to Oz
1.2.1 The big business model clash in Barcelona
1.2.2 Let’s address inequality
1.3.1 Is LTE going to impact on free WiFi?
1.3.2 What makes 5G special?
1.3.3 Will telcos be able to harness the new business opportunities of 5G?
1.3.4 Mobile Connect – Mobile ID
1.3.5 Report from the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona
1.3.6 What do customers want from mobile operators?
1.3.7 Can mobile operators afford a mobile-only strategy?
1.3.8 Data mining – the next driver of mobile revenue
1.4.1 Broadband changing telco business model from retail to wholesale
1.4.2 Low cost economy depends on ubiquitous affordable high speed broadband
1.4.3 The next stage of the broadbanding of the world
1.4.4 Downstream speeds vs upstream speeds
1.5 Digital Transformation
1.5.1 Government lags in digital leadership
1.5.2 The effect of big data on the advertising industry
1.5.3 Online advertising does not improve the overall result for advertisers
1.5.4 Telstra leading the e-health market
1.5.5 Medieval education system hard to reform
1.5.6 A different approach to employment
1.5.7 Banks under e-pressure
1.6 Digital Media
1.6.1 Broadcasting sector adjusts to competition from OTT video services
1.6.2 Competition is hotting up in Australian Video Entertainment market
1.6.3 Slow Netflix – send your complaints to Minister Turnbull
1.6.4 Streaming threat to Pay TV
1.6.5 E-books and human behaviour
1.6.6 Is the IPTV market ready for consolidation?
1.6.7 Content – the next regulatory war zone
1.6.8 In the digital media revolution, consumer choice is the key
2. National Broadband Network – Developments and Analyses 2015
2.1 Political Developments
2.1.1 NBN – this is as good as it gets
2.1.2 Labor’s NBN 3.0 back to FttH
2.1.3 After the storm – do we need a national inquiry into the reliability of our telecoms networks?
2.1.4 Should taxpayers pay for a NBN based on MTM?
2.1.5 The Minister for Lost Opportunities
2.1.6 Staying focused on the NBN outcomes and bypassing political roadblocks
2.1.7 Biggest threat to NBN is political panic
2.1.8 The unravelling of the NBN
2.2 The NBN company
2.2.1 How independent is NBN Co?
2.2.2 NBN Co threat to proper broadband competition
2.3 Technology Issues
2.3.1 Whatever happened to the rollout of the fixed wireless NBN in regional Australia?
2.3.2 The difference between FttH and FttP
2.3.3 Why Australia needs a Fibre-to-the-Premises policy
2.3.4 Market-led demand for FttH is picking up
2.4 Competition Issues
2.4.1 Open up the metropolitan NBN market to competition
2.4.2 Competition in the telecoms industry is dwindling
2.4.3 TPG highlights the fragile NBN environment
2.5 Other Issues
2.5.1 Broadband services in rural Australia worse than we thought
2.5.2 Australia vs America – what leaders say about broadband speeds
2.5.3 Content – the next regulatory war zone
2.5.4 NBN-related jobs increase by 248% since review
3. The Broadcasting Market in 2015
3.1 Disruptive content is heating up the competition
3.2 International competition needs infrastructure
3.3 Free-to-Air TV still going strong
3.4 Should the Pay TV model be retained – even though it is wrong?
3.5 Fast-forward, re-wind, catch-up all aim to deliver content
3.6 Netflix is forcing the transformation of the broadcasting industry
3.7 Customers moving to streaming media delivery
3.8 Digital TV moved to 100% penetration
3.9 Restacking the digital channel spectrum
3.10 Budget cuts to the ABC and SBS
3.11 Digital radio
3.12 Revenue trends in the media sector
3.13 In the digital media revolution, consumer choice is the key
3.14 Why Australia needs a Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) policy
3.15 Fetch TV championing the one-stop-shop approach to video entertainment
3.16 Broadcasting is moving to broadband
3.17 Will broadcasting move to the cloud?
4. M2M and The Internet of Things
4.1 Market and Industry Analyses
4.1.1 Analysis of the market in 2015
4.1.2 IoT transforming product-based economies to ones based on services
4.1.3 M2M hype and reality
4.1.4 2014 was the year of M2M, but …
4.1.5 Who will dominate the IoT market?
4.1.6 The Internet of Everything
4.2 Statistical information
4.2.1 Results from early IoT adopters
4.2.2 M2M keeps growing into 2016
4.2.3 High adoption rates for IoT
4.2.4 Ovum/Vodafone study tips the market at A$530 million by 2019
Paul is by far, the leading telecommunications analyst in Australia. Not only is his company's research first class and timely, it is superbly contextual to the complexities of today's modern media and communications technology. He is always extremely generous in sharing his knowledge with others and has a great ability to connect people together and be a thought leader on topics of National interest such as the NBN, FttH and Smart Grids.
Bruce Duyshart, Director Strategic Technology, Lend Lease