2011 Latin America - Telecoms, Broadband and Mobile Forecasts

Publication Overview

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Latin America - Telecoms, Broadband and Mobile Forecasts, provides scenario forecasts, addressing the major fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The countries covered in this report include:

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Researchers:- Lucia Bibolini, Lawrence Baker, Henry Lancaster
September 2011 (10th Edition)

Executive Summary

Mobile and broadband sector growth compensating for falling fixed-voice revenue

The telecoms sector across Latin America during the next few years will be characterised by strong growth in the broadband and mobile voice and data sectors, itself compensating for the continuing decline in the fixed-voice market.

Fixed-voice revenue will steadily fall in line with the loss of subscribers as these migrate to VoIP and mobile-only alternatives, while broadband growth will be stimulated by ongoing consumer demand for high-bandwidth applications made more readily available through operator investments in network upgrades. The mobile data sector will be a key focus for sector investment as operators seek to generate revenue from emerging data applications and as governments and regulators promote high-end mobile technologies such as HSPA and LTE to deliver effective broadband to rural areas and smaller towns.

In the fixed-line sector generally, investments among incumbents and alternative operators alike will be focussed on developing upgraded networks capable of supporting bundled services, offering combinations of cable TV, IPTV, broadband, VoIP, mobile services and fixed-voice telephony. A by-product of consumer demand for services is that the number of fixed lines is likely to increase in some markets where teledensity is particularly low, since new lines as much as upgraded ones will be required to deliver these services.

Although the market for bundled services remains nascent, growth is expected to follow rapidly once existing copper networks have been upgraded with ADSL2+ and VDSL or replaced with fibre: although FttH has had scarce uptake in Latin America, primarily due to high investment and engineering costs, a number of existing projects concentrated in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile are likely to be the precursor for stronger growth in coming years, initially in urban areas but inexorably including less densely populated areas.

This investment will be stimulated by operators exploiting the bundled services sector, which requires higher capacity networks, and be facilitated by the know-how of major players such as Portugal Telecom and Telefónica which have considerable experience in this field in their European markets.

Another nascent development is with Local Loop Unbundling (LLU), which has been the catalyst for phenomenal growth in the broadband sector across Europe and other regions, both in terms of consumer take-up and competition, but which thus far in Latin America has been poorly legislated for and inadequately regulated.

Nevertheless, given government awareness of the importance of broadband infrastructure to overall socio-economic development, if sympathetic regulatory measures are put in place and enforced in some key markets this should considerably stimulate the sector, allowing for the emergence of new market entrants and lower consumer prices. Thus during the next decade the fixed broadband market across the region is expected to develop substantially, albeit from a relatively low penetration base. An important proviso is that in rural regions growing broadband penetration is likely to be characterised by mobile networks rather than through DSL.

In the mobile phone market, dominated by the lower cost prepaid sector, most countries now have above 100% penetration. The market has benefitted from a number of stimuli, not least of which are inadequate fixed-telephone infrastructures and topographical issues which render the laying of such infrastructure to many non-urban areas uneconomical. As for traffic, mobile telephony reached a par with fixed-line services as early as 2001, and now commands about 85% of the market, far ahead of the dynamics of Europe and other regions.

The trend for the region in coming years will be the continuing roll out of 3G services: by mid-2011 at least 27 countries had 3G networks in place from a range of operators. Many have launched HSPA and HSPA+ technologies to provide services including mobile broadband, multimedia services, mobile games, video calling and mobile TV. Although mobile data use is forecast to grow at 50-60% annually on the back of this infrastructure, supported by the growth in the use of smartphones, it will not be matched by revenue which is unlikely to reach beyond 5-10% in most markets, given the pressure from competition and the emergence of flat rate tariffs.

The rapid increase in the number of 3G subscribers has also affected the 2G market: the number of 2G subscribers will diminish towards the end of the decade as they migrate to 3G plans and as new subscribers sign up for 3G in the first instance. In addition, by 2014, 4G (LTE) services, expected to be launched initially in Chile and Colombia, will be widespread following the ongoing auctions of suitable spectrum.

Market highlights:

  • Broadband growth is expected to remain at about 16-18% across the region in both 2011 and 2012, stimulated by operator investments in networks in part aimed at satisfying consumer demand for bundled services.
  • Broadband population penetration is expected to approach 9-12% by 2012/13. This remains far below Europe and some Asian markets, but strong growth from a relatively low base will see some parity with these more mature markets by the end of the decade.
  • The first LTE services are expected to see commercial launches by the end of 2011, with a growing number of operators offering services by 2014.
  • Telefónica’s rebranding as Movistar across its markets is part of a restructure aimed at unifying fixed, mobile, broadband, and pay TV services under a single brand, and so associating the company with a range of cross-platform bundled offers.
  • Fixed-mobile substitution will exacerbate the decline in fixed-voice traffic in coming years, though since most incumbent operators offer both services revenue from subscribers will largely be retained.
  • The growth in the 3G subscriber base may reach 140% in 2011, accounting for a quarter of all mobile telephony subscribers. While 2G is expected to show steady growth for the next few years, by the end of the decade the sector will be dominated by 3G and, increasingly, 4G as LTE networks are commercialised.
  • Cable broadband, accounting for a third of all regional broadband subscribers, should show continued growth in coming years as cablecos invest in DOCSIS3.0 technology capable of providing download speeds of up to 120Mb/s. This capability is ahead of current hybrid VDSL/FttB networks, which have a limited footprint, and may encourage churn from DSL customers seeking higher bandwidth.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Overview of Latin America’s fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets
  • 2. Argentina
    • 2.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 2.1.1 Country overview
      • 2.1.2 Overview of Argentina’s telecom market
      • 2.1.3 Market analysis – 2011
    • 2.2 Forecasts
      • 2.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 2.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 2.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 3. Brazil
    • 3.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 3.1.1 Country overview
      • 3.1.2 Overview of Brazil’s telecom market
      • 3.1.3 Market analysis - 2011
    • 3.2 Forecasts
      • 3.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 3.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 3.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 4. Chile
    • 4.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 4.1.1 Country overview
      • 4.1.2 Telecommunications market
    • 4.2 Forecasts
      • 4.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
      • 4.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2015; 2020
      • 4.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
  • 5. Colombia
    • 5.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 5.1.1 Country overview
      • 5.1.2 Telecommunications market
    • 5.2 Forecasts
      • 5.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 5.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 5.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 6. Dominican Republic
    • 6.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 6.1.1 Country Overview
      • 6.1.2 Overview of the Dominican Republic’s telecom market
    • 6.2 Forecasts
      • 6.2.1 Forecast broadband subscribers
      • 6.2.2 Forecast cellular subscribers
  • 7. Ecuador
    • 7.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 7.1.1 Country overview
      • 7.1.2 Overview of Ecuador’s telecom market
      • 7.1.3 Market analysis – 2011
    • 7.2 Forecasts
      • 7.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020
      • 7.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020
      • 7.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020
  • 8. Mexico
    • 8.1 Telecommunications Market overview
      • 8.1.1 Background
      • 8.1.2 Overview
    • 8.2 Forecasts
      • 8.2.1 Broadband forecasts
      • 8.2.2 Mobile market forecasts – 2011 - 2016
  • 9. Panama
    • 9.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 9.1.1 Country overview
      • 9.1.2 Overview of Panama’s telecom market
      • 9.1.3 Market analysis – 2010
    • 9.2 Forecasts
      • 9.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 9.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 9.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 10. Paraguay
    • 10.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 10.1.1 Country overview
      • 10.1.2 Telecommunications market
    • 10.2 Forecasts
      • 10.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 10.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 10.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 11. Peru
    • 11.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 11.1.1 Country overview
      • 11.1.2 Overview of Peru’s telecom market
      • 11.1.3 Market analysis – 2011
    • 11.2 Forecasts
      • 11.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2015; 2020
      • 11.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2015; 2020
      • 11.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2015; 2020
  • 12. Puerto Rico
    • 12.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 12.1.1 Country Overview
      • 12.1.2 Telecoms overview
    • 12.2 Forecasts
      • 12.2.1 Forecasts – Mobile services – 2011-2016
  • 13. Uruguay
    • 13.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 13.1.1 Country overview
      • 13.1.2 Telecommunications market
    • 13.2 Forecasts
      • 13.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 13.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 13.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 14. Venezuela
    • 14.1 Telecoms market overview
      • 14.1.1 Country overview
      • 14.1.2 Outlook
      • 14.1.3 Overview of Venezuela’s telecom market
      • 14.1.4 Market analysis – 2011
    • 14.2 Forecasts
      • 14.2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 14.2.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 14.2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • 15. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Evolution of GDP in Argentina – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 2 – Fixed and mobile market share in Argentina – 1998 - 2011
  • Table 3 – Telecommunications revenue in Argentina – 2001 - 2011
  • Table 4 – Telecom revenue by segment in Argentina – 2006 - 2011
  • Table 5 – Forecast fixed lines in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 6 – Forecast fixed lines in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 7 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 8 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 9 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 10 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 11 – Evolution of GDP in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 12 – Fixed and mobile market share in Brazil – 1997 - 2011
  • Table 13 – Telecommunications revenue in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 14 – Telecom revenue by segment in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 15 – Telecommunications investment in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 16 – Telecom investment by segment in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 17 – Forecast fixed lines in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 18 – Forecast fixed lines in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 19 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 20 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 21 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 22 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 23 – Evolution of GDP in Chile – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 24 – Fixed and mobile market share in Chile – 1997 - 2011
  • Table 25 – Telecommunications revenue in Chile – 2005 - 2011
  • Table 26 – Telecom revenue by segment in Chile – 2010
  • Table 27 – Telecom revenue by operator in Chile – 2010
  • Table 28 – Forecast fixed lines in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 29 – Forecast fixed lines in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 30 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 31 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 32 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 33 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 34 – Evolution of GDP in Colombia – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 35 – Telecommunications revenue in Colombia – 2000 - 2009
  • Table 36 – Telecom revenue by segment in Colombia – 2006 - 2011
  • Table 37 – Forecast fixed lines in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 38 – Forecast fixed lines in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 39 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 40 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 41 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 42 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 43 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Dominican Republic – 2009 - 2013
  • Table 44 – Forecast cellular subscribers in Dominican Republic – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2015
  • Table 45 – Forecast cellular subscribers in Dominican Republic – higher market scenario – 2011 - 2015
  • Table 46 – Evolution of GDP in Ecuador – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 47 – Fixed and mobile market share in Ecuador - 1997 - 2011
  • Table 48 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 49 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 50 – Forecast broadband growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 51 – Forecast broadband growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 52 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 53 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 54 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 55 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 56 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2012; 2016
  • Table 57 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2010 - 2012; 2016
  • Table 58 – Evolution of GDP in Panama – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 59 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 60 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 61 – Forecast broadband growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 62 – Forecast broadband growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 63 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 64 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 65 – Evolution of GDP in Paraguay – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 66 – Fixed and mobile market share in Paraguay – 1998 - 2011
  • Table 67 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers in Paraguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 68 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers in Paraguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 69 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers in Paraguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 70 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Paraguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 71 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Paraguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 72 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Paraguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 73 – Evolution of GDP in Peru – 2000 - 2012
  • Table 74 – Fixed and mobile market share in Peru - 1997 - 2011
  • Table 75 – Telecommunications revenue in Peru – 2001 - 2016
  • Table 76 – Forecast fixed line growth in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 77 – Forecast fixed line growth in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 78 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 79 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 80 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 81 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2015; 2020
  • Table 82 – Evolution of GDP in Uruguay – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 83 – Telecommunications revenue in Uruguay – 2005-2011
  • Table 84 – Telecom revenue by segment in Uruguay – 2005-2011
  • Table 85 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 86 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 87 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 88 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 89 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 90 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 91 – Evolution of GDP in Venezuela – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 92 – Fixed and mobile market share in Venezuela – 1998 - 2011
  • Table 93 – Telecom revenues and investments in Venezuela – 2001 - 2011
  • Table 94 – Telecom revenues by segment in Venezuela – 2008 - 2011
  • Table 95 – Forecast fixed lines in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 96 – Forecast fixed lines in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 97 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 98 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 99 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 100 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Chart 1 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Argentina – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 2 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Argentina by market share – 1998 - 2011
  • Chart 3 – Evolution of telecom revenue in Argentina – 2001 - 2011
  • Chart 4 – Telecom revenue in Argentina – breakdown at a glance – 2006 - 2011
  • Chart 5 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Brazil – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 6 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Brazil by market share – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 7 – Evolution of telecom revenue in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Chart 8 – Evolution of telecom investment in Brazil – 2000 - 2011
  • Chart 9 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Chile – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 10 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Chile by market share – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 11 – Evolution of telecom revenue in Chile – 2005 - 2011
  • Chart 12 – Revenue breakdown by segment in Chile – 2010
  • Chart 13 – Revenue breakdown by operator in Chile – 2010
  • Chart 14 – Telecommunications revenue in Colombia – 2000 - 2009
  • Chart 15 – Telecom revenue by segment in Colombia – 2006 - 2011
  • Chart 16 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Ecuador at a glance – 1997 – 2011
  • Chart 17 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2010 – 2016
  • Chart 18 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2010 – 2016
  • Chart 19 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Paraguay – 1998 - 2011
  • Chart 20 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Peru – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 21 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Peru by market share – 1997 - 2011
  • Chart 22 – Evolution of telecom revenue in Peru – 2001 - 2016
  • Chart 23 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Puerto Rico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Chart 24 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Puerto Rico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Chart 25 – Telecommunications revenue in Uruguay – 2005-2011
  • Chart 26 – Telecom revenue by segment in Uruguay – 2005-2011
  • Chart 27 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Venezuela – 1998 - 2011
  • Chart 28 – Evolution of revenues and investments in Venezuela – 2001 - 2011
  • Chart 29 – Telecom revenue breakdown at a glance in Venezuela – 2011
  • Exhibit 1 – Map of Argentina
  • Exhibit 2 – Map of Brazil
  • Exhibit 3 – Map of Chile
  • Exhibit 4 – Map of Colombia
  • Exhibit 5 – Map of Ecuador
  • Exhibit 6 – Map of Paraguay
  • Exhibit 7 – Map of Peru
  • Exhibit 8 – Map of Uruguay
  • Exhibit 9 – Map of Venezuela

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 117

Status Archived

Last updated 21 Sep 2011
Update History

Analyst: Lucia Bibolini

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