2010 Latin American Telecoms, Broadband and Mobile Forecasts

Publication Overview

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts, provides scenario forecasts, addressing the major fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets of Latin America and the Caribbean. The countries covered are:- Argentina, Belize, Chile, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Researcher:- Lucia Bibolini, Lawrence Baker
Current publication date:- November 2010 (9th Edition)
Next publication date:- September 2011

 

Executive Summary

Mobile races ahead while broadband has a way to go in Latin America

Telecommunications is generally a high-growth industry in Latin America, particularly the mobile and broadband sectors, but the fixed-line market is mostly stagnant.

In fact, in the lower growth scenarios, Latin America’s fixed-line market could even shrink over the years to 2020. Incumbents generally seem reluctant to invest in fixed infrastructure, although new entrants using VoIP, wireless technologies, or triple play solutions are attracting a growing number of subscribers. The market share of these companies, however, remains comparatively small, and the incumbents continue to dominate the region’s fixed line industry.

In the higher fixed-line growth scenarios, on the other hand, assuming healthy GDP growth rates and appropriate regulatory measures, the number of fixed lines could begin to increase again, because teledensity is low and operators may eventually need to roll out more lines to meet the demand for ADSL broadband. Furthermore, a few governments are looking into network sharing and Local Loop Unbundling (LLU), which could boost both the fixed-line and broadband markets. The implementation of fixed number portability in several Latin American countries may also help the new market entrants.

Like the rest of the world, Latin America is turning increasingly towards mobile solutions and away from the traditional telephone. Actually, Latin America is well ahead of the world average, having reached 93% mobile penetration in mid-2010 against a global rate of around 73%.

Many Latin American countries have passed or are close to passing the 100% mobile penetration milestone, and growth is set to continue beyond this mark. More and more people own multiple mobile accounts – either one phone for work and one for personal use, or one phone for each mobile company in order to take advantage of special offers. The growing popularity of mobile broadband also means that an increasing number of users require at least two SIM cards, one for their mobile phone and one for their USB modem.

The fixed broadband market in Latin America should increase substantially over the years to 2020, as regional penetration is low compared with the world average (in early 2010, it was about 6.3% versus 8.0% global rate). With the growing awareness of how important broadband penetration can be for a country’s economic development, governments are looking at ways to promote Internet access through universalisation projects and regulatory reforms.

On the other hand, fixed broadband is close to saturation in some of the region’s major urban centres, while provincial towns and rural areas may end up turning to mobile rather than fixed broadband. Although ADSL penetration still has some room for growth within the existing infrastructure, eventually it may hit a bottleneck due to the low number of fixed lines. In this scenario, fixed broadband may be replaced by mobile broadband, especially when the faster speeds of 4G mobile (LTE) become available.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Argentina
    • 1.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 1.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 1.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 1.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 1.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 1.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 1.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 1.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 1.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 2. Brazil
    • 2.1 Overview
    • 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 2.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 2.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 2.3 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 2.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 2.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 2.4.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 2.4.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 3. Chile
    • 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 3.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 3.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 3.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 3.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 3.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 3.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 3.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 3.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 4. Colombia
    • 4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 4.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 4.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 4.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 4.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 4.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 4.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 4.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 4.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 5. Dominican Republic
    • 5.1 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2015
    • 5.2 Forecast cellular subscribers – 2011 - 2015
  • 6. Ecuador
    • 6.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 6.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 6.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 6.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 6.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 6.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 6.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 6.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 6.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 7. Mexico
    • 7.1 Fixed-line subscriber and penetration forecasts – 2011 - 2016
    • 7.2 Broadband forecasts scenario – 2011 - 2016
    • 7.3 Mobile market forecasts – 2011 - 2016
  • 8. Panama
    • 8.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 8.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 8.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 8.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 8.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 8.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 8.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 8.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 8.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 9. Peru
    • 9.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 9.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 9.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 9.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 9.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 9.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 9.3 Forecasts – mobile market 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 9.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 9.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 10. Puerto Rico
    • 10.1 Forecasts – Mobile services – 2011 - 2016
  • 11. Uruguay
    • 11.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 11.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 11.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 11.2 Forecasts – broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 11.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 11.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 11.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 11.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 11.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 12. Venezuela
    • 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 12.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed line growth
      • 12.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed line growth
    • 12.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 12.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 12.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2015; 2020
      • 12.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 12.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 13. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Forecast fixed lines in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 2 – Forecast fixed lines in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 3 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 4 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 5 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Argentina – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 6 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Argentina – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 7 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 8 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 9 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 10 – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 11 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Brazil – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 12 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Brazil – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 13 – Forecast fixed lines in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 14 – Forecast fixed lines in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 15 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 16 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 17 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Chile – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 18 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Chile – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 19 – Forecast fixed lines in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 20 – Forecast fixed lines in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 21 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 22 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 23 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Colombia – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 24 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Colombia – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 25 – Forecast broadband subscribers in the Dominican Republic – 2011 - 2015
  • Table 26 – Forecast cellular subscribers in the Dominican Republic – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2015
  • Table 27 – Forecast cellular subscribers in the Dominican Republic – higher market scenario – 2011 - 2015
  • Table 28 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 29 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 30 – Forecast broadband growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 31 – Forecast broadband growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 32 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Ecuador – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 33 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Ecuador – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 34 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 35 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 36 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 37 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 38 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 39 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Mexico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 40 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 41 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 42 – Forecast broadband growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 43 – Forecast broadband growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 44 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Panama – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 45 – Forecast mobile subscriber growth in Panama – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 46 – Forecast fixed line growth in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 47 – Forecast fixed line growth in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 48 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 49 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 50 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Peru – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 51 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Peru – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 52 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Puerto Rico – lower growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 53 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Puerto Rico – higher growth scenario – 2011 - 2016
  • Table 54 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 55 – Forecast fixed line subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 56 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 57 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 58 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Uruguay – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 59 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Uruguay – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 60 – Forecast fixed lines in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 61 – Forecast fixed lines in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 62 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 63 – Forecast broadband subscribers in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 64 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Venezuela – higher growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 65 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Venezuela – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015; 2020

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Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 55

Status Archived

Last updated 14 Sep 2010
Update History

Analyst: Lucia Bibolini

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