2009 Peru - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Peru - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, profiles the country with the highest GDP growth forecast for Latin America. Although Peru’s economy will inevitably decelerate as a result of the global financial crisis, it is expected to grow by 5% in 2009. This should hopefully serve to increase the country’s GDP per capita, which is well below the regional average.

Mobile telephony, broadband, and pay TV have been the fastest growing telecom sectors in Peru. Despite the downturn, these sectors are expected to grow in 2009-2011, albeit at a slower pace. Even the fixed-line sector may continue to inch forward, helped by universalisation strategies. The government aims to bridge the digital divide through FITEL, a fund that finances rural operators under the rule of less-bid subsidy.

Competition is strongly encouraged in Peru; for this purpose, regulations include a single concession regime to facilitate convergence; infrastructure sharing; a multicarrier system for long distance services; and mobile number portability, which is to become be compulsory for all operators in January 2010.

Several government-subsidised broadband projects are underway or up for tender. WiMAX and mobile spectrum auctions are planned for 2009.

This report presents a concise overview of sector liberalisation and privatisation in Peru; government initiatives and regulations in the telecom industry; company profiles for the major operators in the various telecom sectors; the development of mobile and broadband technologies; the emergence of convergence and IP solutions; essential country and operator statistics in all telecom sectors; and scenario forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets.

Key highlights:

·         Peru’s fixed-line teledensity is among the lowest in Latin America; telecom infrastructure reflects the country’s poverty map, with most of the fixed lines concentrated in Lima. Despite liberalisation, Peru’s local telephony market is still dominated by the incumbent Telefónica del Perú.

·         Peru’s mobile penetration is slightly below average for Latin America, and this compares favourably with the country’s low GDP per capita. There are, however, huge discrepancies between urban and rural regions, ranging from 102% in the capital city to 8% in some of the poorer parts of the country.

·         Internet user penetration is remarkably high compared with Peru’s other economic indicators. The success of the Internet in Peru is primarily due to the mushrooming of cheap public Internet facilities known as cabinas públicas. In fact, Peru is a world leader in terms of users who access the Internet in public places.

·         Although still restricted to the higher-income bracket of the population, subscription television and triple play solutions are fast growing markets in Peru.

Peru – key telecom statistics – September 2008

(Source: BuddeComm based on company data)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.

The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.

All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

For those needing high-level strategic information and objective analysis on this region, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

·         Regulatory developments and spectrum auctions;

·         Fixed-line developments, including the adoption of alternative technologies such as VoIP;

·         Mobile telephony growth and the uptake of mobile data services;

·         Broadband growth and incursions into wireless technologies such as WiMAX;

·         Convergence, triple play, IPTV, and other emerging technologies;

·         Scenario forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets.