2009 Mexico - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

BuddeComm’s annual publication, ‘Mexico - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts,’ profiles the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets in Mexico. It also examines the convergence of these technologies with each other and with digital media such as digital TV and the emergence of new telecommunication services such as VoIP.

Because of Mexico’s geographical position and its strong trading connection with the USA, the economic climate of the country follows that of the USA. Mexico’s principal import and export partner is the USA; hence, when the USA is in recession, Mexico tends to follow. Indeed, the US economy contracted by approximately 0.5% in the third quarter 2008 and a further 1.5% in the fourth quarter, with Mexico following suit at negative growth of 1% for the fourth quarter 2008.

In relation to the telecoms industry specifically, industry growth has long outpaced the broader economic growth. Although growth for 2008 was a healthy 27% (compared with economy-wide growth of 1.3%), the effect of the economic downturn was becoming evident as the year progressed. Industry growth dropped from a record high of 36% in the second quarter 2008, down to 24% in the third quarter and to 14% for the fourth quarter. This trend is expected to continue through 2009 before increasing again in 2010.

The implementation of mobile number portability in mid-2008 together with the planned wireless spectrum auctions in 2009 are expected to boost competition in the mobile market and facilitate the launch of next generation mobile technology. The predominance of mobile phones over fixed lines, prevalent in all of Latin America, is expected to continue in Mexico.

This report provides overviews, analyses and detailed statistics of the Mexican fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets including developments in emerging technologies such as wireless broadband and VoIP and scenario forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets.

Key highlights:

·         During 2008 and early 2009 Mexico’s telecom industry remained in double figure revenue growth despite the broader economy entering a period of recession. With a population of around 110 million and fixed-line teledensity of less than 20%, Mexico’s telecom sector retains significant potential for growth over the next 5-10 years.

·         Mexico’s growth in fixed-lines has been steadily declining for the past eight years, from 13% in 2000 to 4% in 2008. Thus teledensity in early 2009 continued to languish at approximately 19%, around average for Latin America. In addition, there are significant disparities in fixed-line penetration between urban and rural areas. Despite liberalisation, Telmex still dominates the fixed market with around 90% of lines. Mexico remains the last country in the OECD yet to unbundle its local loop.

·         Driven by a booming GSM sector, Mexico’s mobile industry is growing at a rate of approximately 15% per annum, achieving more than 70% penetration by early 2009.

·         By early 2009 Telmex’s sister company, América Móvil (Telcel), still accounted for around 72% of the mobile market.

·         Broadband is one of the highest growth sectors in Mexico’s telecom market, the revenue of which remained in double digit growth for the fourth quarter 2008 despite the broader economy posting negative growth for that period. For instance, Telmex’s ADSL product, Prodigy Infinitum, continued to post very strong growth rates for the year and is expected to continue to do so during 2009.

·         The main cable TV providers, Megacable, Cablemás and Cablevisión, have begun to incentivise the purchase of triple play bundles of cable TV, broadband and telephony, and as a result their broadband subscriber base, and in particular their VoIP subscriber numbers, witnessed healthy growth during 2008 and into early 2009.

·         Despite the economic downturn, it is expected that during 2009 broadband growth will remain in double figures as there is still significant scope for additional growth given Mexico’s broadband penetration is merely around one-quarter of the OECD average.

·         During 2009 the DTH satellite market will begin to enjoy some long overdue competition in the sector, following the entry in November 2008 of Dish Mexico.

·         Cofetel still requires greater independence and regulatory power in order to be able to properly foster a more competitive market. Calls for increased competition in the sector continue to mount. Thus, the competition agency, the CFC, announced separate investigations into the fixed, mobile and broadband sectors. Regulatory gamesmanship continues to typify the sector; for instance, in early 2009 when Cofetel published new interconnection regulations (known as PTFII) requiring all operators to provide third party access, Telmex responded by cutting planned investments in 2009 by a third.

Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2010; 2015

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

·         This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.

·         The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.

·         All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.