2009 Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts

Publication Overview

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts, provides scenario forecasts for the years 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018, addressing the major fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets of Latin America and the Caribbean. The countries covered in the report include: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.

 

Lucia Bibolini and Lawrence Baker

Current publication date:- July 2009 (8th Edition)

Next publication date:- August 2010

Executive Summary

Telecoms services have become an increasingly essential item not only for businesses but also for residential consumers in Latin America. Therefore, demand should not collapse in 2009 despite the recession. Telecom revenues should continue to grow in most countries, driven by mobile telephony and broadband, but growth rates will be quite small compared with previous years.

 

The services worst affected by the economic slowdown are likely to be those that provide entertainment, such as pay TV, digital media, and non-corporate mobile data services. Also, equipment renewal will suffer, because although corporate and residential users are not going to stop using their cell phones and computers, they will wait for the economic crisis to lift before they spend money on upgrades.

 

The fixed-line market is likely to remain in its present stagnant condition. In some of the major economies, mobile telephony operators may need to seek additional revenues from SMS and low-cost value added services rather than from new subscriptions, the market being close to saturation.

 

Broadband development may require governmental and regulatory efforts, particularly with a view to public wellbeing such as e-health, e-education, e-government, and other social services. Universalisation projects, however, could be paralysed by fund shortages, unless they are included in the governments’ anti-crisis measures.

 

Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018

Year

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2008

148.81

77.1%

2013

207.37

101.1%

2018

235.28

108.9%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

 

The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:

·         This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.

·         The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.

·         All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Argentina
    • 1.1 Overview
    • 1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
      • 1.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 1.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 1.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
      • 1.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 1.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 1.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
      • 1.4.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 1.4.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 2. Brazil
    • 2.1 Overview
    • 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
    • 2.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
    • 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
  • 3. Chile
    • 3.1 Overview
    • 3.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
    • 3.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
    • 3.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
  • 4. Colombia
    • 4.1 Overview
    • 4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
      • 4.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 4.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 4.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
      • 4.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 4.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 4.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
      • 4.4.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 4.4.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 5. Dominican Republic
    • 5.1 Forecast broadband subscribers
    • 5.2 Forecast cellular subscribers
  • 6. Mexico
    • 6.1 Overview
    • 6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2015
    • 6.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2015
    • 6.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2015
  • 7. Panama
    • 7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
      • 7.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 7.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 7.2 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
      • 7.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 7.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 8. Peru
    • 8.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
      • 8.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 8.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 8.2 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
      • 8.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 8.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 8.3 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
      • 8.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 8.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 9. Puerto Rico
    • 9.1 Forecasts – mobile market to 2015
  • 10. Venezuela
    • 10.1 Overview
    • 10.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
      • 10.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed-line growth
      • 10.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed-line growth
    • 10.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
      • 10.3.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband growth
      • 10.3.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband growth
    • 10.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
      • 10.4.1 Scenario 1 – higher mobile market growth
      • 10.4.2 Scenario 2 – lower mobile market growth
  • 11. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 2 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 3 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 4 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 5 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 6 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Argentina – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 7 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity – lower growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 8 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity – higher growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 9 – Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration – lower growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 10 – Forecast broadband s subscribers & penetration – higher growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 11 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 12 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 13 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity – lower growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 14 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity – higher growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 15 – Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration – lower growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 16 – Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration – higher growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 17 – Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration rate – lower growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 18 – Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration rate – higher growth scenario in Chile – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 19 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers & teledensity – higher growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 20 – Forecast fixed line subscribers & teledensity – lower growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 21 – Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration – higher growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 22 – Forecast broadband subscribers & penetration – lower growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 23 – Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration – higher growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 24 – Forecast mobile subscribers & penetration – lower growth scenario in Colombia – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 25 – Forecast broadband subscribers in the Dominican Republic – 2009 - 2013
  • Table 26 – Forecast cellular subscribers – lower growth scenario in the Dominican Republic – 2009 - 2013
  • Table 27 – Forecast cellular subscribers – higher market scenario in the Dominican Republic – 2009 - 2013
  • Table 28 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 29 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 30 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 31 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 32 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 33 – Forecast mobile subscribers – upper growth scenario in Mexico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 34 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario in Panama – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 35 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario in Panama – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 36 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Panama – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 37 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Panama – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 38 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 39 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 40 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 41 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 42 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 43 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Peru – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 44 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Puerto Rico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 45 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Puerto Rico – 2010; 2015
  • Table 46 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – higher growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 47 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – lower growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 48 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 49 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 50 – Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 51 – Forecast mobile subscribers – lower growth scenario in Venezuela – 2008; 2013; 2018

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 65

Status Archived

Last updated 15 Jul 2009
Update History

Analyst: Lucia Bibolini

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