New Zealand - Telecoms - Market Forecasts 2015, 2020


The dynamic and competitive telecom market in New Zealand has seen considerable regulatory changes in recent years, particularly since 2008 following the structural separation of the incumbent operator. These changes have allowed the market to develop, providing an excellent infrastructure as the basis for IP-delivered content to consumers.

Further market and regulatory changes are anticipated in the period to the end of 2020, by which time the infrastructure of the government funded Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) network and the undertakings of the Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI) will be complete.

This fibre-backbone network will become the predominant infrastructure. It will provide its services to the other market sectors including energy, manufacturing, healthcare, education. It will be available to rural areas through wireless access. With all these sectors involved, we are beginning to see telcos morph from being traditional telephony access providers to content service providers. Telcos, ISPs and the other service operators will have an opportunity to become the deliverers of ICT to these market sectors.

The larger sectors, in particular, will create a large demand for value-added infrastructure services. All of this will assist the industry to double its size to more than $14 billion by 2020. This report provides scenario-based forecast for the mobile sector as well as some forecasts and background information on other markets within the wider economy.

More extensive details on the companies mentioned in this report are covered in separate reports at:

Key developments:

Subscribers, market share, mobile voice, mobile data, ISPs MoIP, 4G, RSPs, LTE.

Companies covered in this report include:

Crown Fibre Holdings, Chorus, Vodafone, Spark.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Market overview
    • 2.1 Media market
    • 2.2 Total overhaul of the telecoms industry
    • 2.3 Infrastructure market
    • 2.4 The retail market
    • 2.5 The trans-sector market
  • 3. The fixed broadband market
    • 3.1 Setting the scene
    • 3.2 Fixed broadband market forecasts
  • 4. The mobile market
    • 4.1 Overview of changes
    • 4.2 Mobile market scenarios
  • 5. Forecasting notes
  • 6. Related reports
  • Table 1 – Size of fixed trans-sector market – 2020
  • Table 2 – Size of mobile trans-sector market – 2020
  • Table 3 – Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 4 – Telecommunications services revenue share by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 5 – Forecast DSL subscribers – 2008 - 2015; 2020
  • Table 6 – Forecast mobile voice subscribers – 2008 - 2015; 2020

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