Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

Publication Overview

This report covers extensive statistics and forecasts for the Australian telecoms industry over a wide range of topics including:

  • Overall Telecoms Industry segmented by major provider (including second tier markets) and by telecommunications service. 
  • Mobile and Mobile Broadband segment.
  • Smartphones, Tablets and Handset Market.
  • Fixed Broadband Market: NBN, FTTN, VDSL, FTTP, FTTB and HFC Networks.
  • Fixed Wireless and Satellite Networks.
  • Pay TV and Free-to-Air TV. 
  • Video Streaming.

Researchers:- Phil Harpur
Current publication date:- November 2018 (31st Edition)

Executive Summary

Mobile broadband and Fibre-to-the Node (FttN) are driving the Australian telco market

While fixed-line telephony traffic and revenue are declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily. Fixed-line broadband on the copper network is also declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available, through the NBN’s multi-technology architecture, with its emphasis on VDSL with Fibre-to-the Node (FttN). In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as Voice over Long-term Evolution (VoLTE).

The release of spectrum for LTE mobile broadband use, as well as increased uptake by consumers and businesses, is helping to offset the decline in revenue from fixed-line services, although as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed.

Other sources of revenue for the major telcos include broadband, data and IP access, business services and applications, cloud computing and other telco services. New revenue streams from fibre and cloud computing in particular are assisting the telcos to compensate for losses from revenues from traditional revenue streams.

Revenue for mobile operators in recent years has been characterised by the continuing take up of services based on LTE technology, and to the rising proportion of mobile data to overall revenue.

By 2018, competition among operators is having a braking effect on ARPU however ARPU growth from mobile data services going forward is offsetting declines in voice ARPU. Pricing competition and market saturation is eroding voice revenue, while the continued substitution of cheaper OTT services for mobile SMS messages and the SMS is also eroding SMS revenue.

For all operators, price competition combined with a focus on managing their mobile businesses as they adapt to new technologies being brought into play, have led to considerable pressure in recent years.

The second-tier market continues to grow strongly although this has eased off to some degree during 2018. Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation a process that is set to continue over coming years, in particular from Vocus and TPG, both of which continue to grow through increased scale via mergers and acquisitions.

This report provides statistics on revenue and market forecasts as well as analyses for the Australian telecommunications market by major providers and according to telecommunications service. The telecoms service market is segmented according to the major providers Telstra, Optus, Vodafone, as well by second-tier market providers including Vocus- M2, TPG and Macquarie Telecom.

Key Developments

  • The mobile broadband market is predicted to grow steadily over the next five years to 2023.
  • Fixed-line DSL broadband is declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available.
  • The second-tier market continues to grow strongly although eased off to some degree during 2018.
  • Competition among operators is having a braking effect on ARPU.
  • Very slow mobile subscriber growth is predicted over the next five years to 2023.
  • All three Australian mobile operators are now investing billions of dollars in their networks annually.

Key companies mentioned in this report:

Vodafone, 3, VHA, Optus, Telstra, iiNet, TPG, Vocus, Macquarie Telecom

Table of Contents

  • 1. Overall telecoms Industry
    • 1.1 Total telco market by major service
      • 1.1.1 Market analysis
      • 1.1.2 Revenue statistics and market forecast
    • 1.2 Total telco market by major provider
      • 1.2.1 Market analysis
      • 1.2.2 Revenue statistics and market forecast by major provider
    • 1.3 2nd-Tier telcos
      • 1.3.1 Market analysis
      • 1.3.2 Revenues statistics and market forecast 2nd Tier Telcos
    • 1.4 Fixed line statistics
  • 2. Mobile subscribers, revenues and forecasts
    • 2.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
      • 2.1.1 Total mobile subscribers and market forecast
      • 2.1.2 Mobile operator – subscriber market shares and growth
      • 2.1.3 Prepaid and postpaid subscribers by operator
      • 2.1.4 2G, 3G and 4G subscribers
      • 2.1.5 Wholesale market
      • 2.1.6 International comparisons
    • 2.2 Mobile services revenues, forecast and market analysis
    • 2.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
      • 2.3.1 Revenue by major operator
      • 2.3.2 Revenue market share and trends by operator
      • 2.3.3 Revenue trends by service
    • 2.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
      • 2.4.1 Overview of ARPU
      • 2.4.2 Blended ARPU
      • 2.4.3 Prepaid and postpaid ARPU
  • 3. Mobile broadband
    • 3.1 Mobile broadband statistics
  • 4. Smartphones, tablets and handset market
    • 4.1 Smartphone usage statistics
    • 4.2 Smartphone and tablet shipments
    • 4.3 Handset supplier market shares
    • 4.4 Tablets
    • 4.5 Device statistics
  • 5. Fixed broadband market
    • 5.1 Fixed broadband – subscriber statistics and forecasts
      • 5.1.1 Total market statistics
      • 5.1.2 Market share statistics by platform
      • 5.1.3 Market share statistics by provider
      • 5.1.4 Internet usage trends
      • 5.1.5 Household usage survey - 2018
      • 5.1.6 Fixed broadband subscriber Forecast
    • 5.2 Other broadband statistics
      • 5.2.1 Broadband speeds
      • 5.2.2 Broadband traffic
    • 5.3 Australian business broadband market
    • 5.4 DSL infrastructure
  • 6. National Broadband Network
    • 6.1 NBN market statistics
      • 6.1.1 Revenue statistics
      • 6.1.2 Subscriptions
      • 6.1.3 Broadband market share by provider
      • 6.1.4 FTTP Statistics
  • 7. Pay TV and Free-to-Air TV
    • 7.1 Pay TV
      • 7.1.1 Subscriber statistics
      • 7.1.2 Consumer penetration statistics
      • 7.1.3 Usage statistics
      • 7.1.4 Revenue statistics
      • 7.1.5 Advertising revenue
      • 7.1.6 ARPU and churn statistics
    • 7.2 Free-to-Air usage statistics – 2017 - 2018
  • 8. Video streaming
    • 8.1 2018 Statistics
    • Table 1 – Total telecoms market, retail revenue and forecast – 2007 - 2023
    • Table 2 – Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2007 - 2020
    • Table 3 –Total telecoms market – annual growth by service – 2008 - 2020
    • Table 4 –Total telecoms market – market share by service – 2007 - 2020
    • Table 5 – Historic - Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2001 - 2015
    • Table 6 – Historic - Total telecoms market – annual retail growth by service – 2001 - 2015
    • Table 7 – Historic - Total telecoms market – retail market share by service – 2000 - 2015
    • Table 8 – Total telecoms revenue by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
    • Table 9 – Total telecoms revenue annual growth by major provider / category – 2015 - 2020
    • Table 10 – Total telecoms revenue market share by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
    • Table 11 – Historic - Total telecoms revenues by major providers – 2000 - 2013
    • Table 12 – Historic - Total telecoms revenues by smaller operators, and total – 2005 - 2013
    • Table 13 –Second-tier telcos – total revenue and annual change – 2010 - 2020
    • Table 14 –Second-tier telcos – revenue ($million) by major provider – 2014 - 2018
    • Table 15 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider – 2010 - 2014
    • Table 16 –Second-tier telcos – Revenue and market share by major provider – 2018
    • Table 17 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – annual change – 2010 - 2014
    • Table 18 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2010 - 2014
    • Table 19 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider (historic) – 2004 - 2007
    • Table 20 – Historic - Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2004 - 2007
    • Table 21 – Fixed-line telephone services in operation (retail) (millions) – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 22 – Percentage of Australians with a fixed-line telephone service at home – 2013 - 2017
    • Table 23 – Mobile subscribers, penetration and annual change (with forecast) – 2000 - 2023
    • Table 24 – Mobile subscribers (millions) by MNO (with forecast) – 2009 - 2020
    • Table 25 – Annual change of mobile subscribers by MNO – 2010 - 2020
    • Table 26 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2010 - 2020
    • Table 27 – Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2009
    • Table 28 – Historic - Retail mobile subscriber market share by MNO and MVNO – 2015 - 2016
    • Table 29 – MNO prepaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 30 – MNO market share of prepaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 31 – MNO postpaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 32 – MNO market share of postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 33 – MNO total market of prepaid and postpaid subscribers (millions) – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 34 – MNO total market proportion of prepaid and postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 35 – Prepaid as % of Total Subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2018
    • Table 36 – Postpaid as % of Total Subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2018
    • Table 37 – Historic - Share of postpaid subscribers by MNO and MVNO – 2014 – 2015
    • Table 38 – Historic Share of prepaid subscribers by MNO and MVNO – 2014 – 2015
    • Table 39 – Historic - 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2003 - 2011
    • Table 40 – Historic - Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2011
    • Table 41 – Historic - Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
    • Table 42 – Historic - 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
    • Table 43 – Historic - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
    • Table 44 – Telstra wholesale subscribers – 2007 - 2018
    • Table 45 – Vodafone wholesale (MVNO) subscribers – 2014 - 2016
    • Table 46 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change (with forecast) – 2005 - 2020
    • Table 47 – Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 - 2009
    • Table 48 – Mobile market revenue per major operator – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 49 – Mobile market revenue market share per major operator – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 50 – Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 2005 - 2018
    • Table 51 – Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator – 1993 - 2004
    • Table 52 – Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
    • Table 53 – Total telecoms revenues by major providers – 2005 - 2014
    • Table 54 – Mobile market share in revenue per major operator – 2000 - 2018
    • Table 55 – Telstra mobile broadband revenue – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 56 – Blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2000 - 2017
    • Table 57 – Telstra mobile ARPU - prepaid, postpaid, mobile broadband – 2004 – 2018
    • Table 58 – Optus mobile subscriber - Monthly ARPU – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 59 – VHA Monthly ARPU – 2015- 2018
    • Table 60 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 61 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2018
    • Table 62 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2009 - 2018
    • Table 63 – Internet connections via mobile handsets – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 64 - Use of mobile phones and ownership of smartphones – 2013 - 2017
    • Table 65 - Percentage of Australians mobile-only / no fixed-line telephone at home 2013 - 2017
    • Table 66 – Historic - Australian handset shipments (historic) – 2004 - 2016
    • Table 67 – Australian handset platform market share – 2018
    • Table 68 – Historic - Australian handset brand market share – major suppliers – 2010 - 2014
    • Table 69 – Historic - Estimated tablet users – 2010 - 2012; 2015 - 2016
    • Table 70 – Historic - Tablet market share by manufacturer – 2014 - 2015
    • Table 71 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 72 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, annual growth – 2012 - 2018
    • Table 73 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, market share – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 74 – Historic - Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2011
    • Table 75 – Total broadband subscribers by access type – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 76 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, annual growth – 2012 - 2018
    • Table 77 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, market share – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 78 – Fixed broadband subscribers – DSL, Cable, Fibre – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 79 – Historic - Broadband market share by technology – 2008 - 2015
    • Table 80 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers (thousands) by major provider – 2010 - 2018
    • Table 81 – Fixed broadband retail subscriber annual growth by major provider – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 82 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers market share by major provider – 2014 - 2018
    • Table 83 – Historic - Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2014
    • Table 84 – Telstra broadband subscribers by retail / wholesale – 2007 – 2018
    • Table 85 – Accessing the Internet by Service, Usage Patterns – 2013; 2017
    • Table 86 – Fixed broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) – 2010 - 2023
    • Table 87 – Subscribers’ average broadband speed – 2010 - 2017
    • Table 88 – Average SVoD streaming speed by broadband service provider (Mb/s) – 2015 - 2017
    • Table 89 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2016 - 2018
    • Table 90 – Historic - Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2015
    • Table 91 – Historic - Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 - 2015
    • Table 92 – Volume of data downloaded (Terrabytes) by access connection - 2013 - 2018
    • Table 93 – Historic - Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology – 2008 - 2016
    • Table 94 – Historic - Annual change in data downloaded by access technology – 2011 - 2016
    • Table 95 – Historic - Average data downloaded per subscriber (fixed-line and mobile) – 2013 - 2016
    • Table 96 – DSL broadband subscribers – 2008 – 2018
    • Table 97 – NBN revenue ($million) statistics – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 98 – NBN ARPU – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 99 – NBN capital expenditure – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 100 – Cost per premises – 2014 -2017
    • Table 101 – Historic - Property, plant, equipment and intangible Assets
    • Table 102 – NBN premises activated, Ready for Service (thousands) – 2011 - 2018
    • Table 103 – Cumulative End User subscriptions by technology – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 104 – Market Share – subscriptions – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 105 – Cumulative Premises Ready for Service – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 106 – Historic - Market Share Premises Ready for Service – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 107 – Fixed Line Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 108 – Fixed Wireless Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 109 – Sky Muster Satellite Service Speed Tier Mix – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 110 – NBN premises activated by platform – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 111 – NBN premises serviceable by platform – 2016 - 2017
    • Table 112 – Historic - NBN premises activated by platform – 2014 - 2016
    • Table 113 – Historic - NBN fibre premises serviceable by type – 2012 – 2016
    • Table 114 – Historic - NBN fibre premises activated – 2011 – 2016
    • Table 115 – FTTP - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 116 – FTTB -- Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 117 – FTTN- Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 118 – HFC - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 119 – Wireless - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 120 – Satellite - Market Share - by Provider – June 2018
    • Table 121 – NBN revenue statistics FTTP / FTTP– FY 2013 - 2017
    • Table 122 – FTTP subscriber statistics – 2013 - 2018
    • Table 123 – Annual FTTP / FTTP capital expenditure – FY 2013 - 2017
    • Table 124 – FTTP Cost per premise – FY 2014-2016
    • Table 125 – FTTP Greenfields rollouts 2014 - 2016
    • Table 126 – Pay TV subscribers, Foxtel, others and total – 2008 - 2018
    • Table 127 – Historic - Pay TV subscribers – annual change by major operator– 1997 - 2014
    • Table 128 – Historic – AUSTAR pay TV subscribers – 2008 - 2011
    • Table 129 – Pay TV household penetration rates – 2005 - 2019
    • Table 130 – Historic - Pay TV household penetration rates – 1997 - 2004
    • Table 131 – Pay TV revenue by major operator – 2005 - 2017
    • Table 132 – Historic - Pay TV revenue by major operator – 1997 - 2004
    • Table 133 – Historic - Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator – 1998 - 2004
    • Table 134 – Percentage change of pay TV revenue by major operator – 2005 - 2017
    • Table 135 – Subscription TV advertising revenue and annual change – 2000 - 2017
    • Table 136 –ARPU levels per operator AUSTAR versus FOXTEL – 2003 - 2017
    • Table 137 – Pay TV industry annual churn rates – 1996 - 2017
    • Table 138 – SVOD Subscribers by Category – 2017 - 2018
    • Chart 1 - Total telecoms market – retail revenue ($ million) and forecast – 2007 - 2023
    • Chart 2 - Total telecoms market – retail revenue ($ million) by service– 2007 - 2020
    • Chart 3 - Total telecoms market – market share by service – 2007 - 2020
    • Chart 4 - Total telecoms revenue ($ billion) by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
    • Chart 5 - Total telecoms revenue market share by major provider / category – 2014 - 2020
    • Chart 6 – Second-tier telcos – total revenue ($ million) and annual change – 2010 – 2020
    • Chart 7 – Mobile subscribers and penetration (with forecast) – 2007 - 2023
    • Chart 8 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2009 - 2020
    • Chart 9 – MNO market share of prepaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
    • Chart 10 – MNO market share of postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2018
    • Chart 11 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change (with forecast) – 2010 - 2020
    • Chart 12 – Overview of mobile revenue share per major operator – 2010 - 2018
    • Chart 13 – Historic - PC, desktop and Mobile Device Ownership - 2016
    • Chart 14 – Total broadband Subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless – 2011 - 2018
    • Chart 15 – Fixed broadband subscribers –DSL, Cable, Fibre – 2011 - 2018
    • Chart 16 – Accessing the Internet by Service, Usage Patterns – 2013; 2017
    • Chart 17 – Device used to go online – 2013; 2017
    • Chart 18 – Fixed broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) - 2010 - 2023
    • Chart 19 - Devices uses for Traditional video viewing by device - June 2017
    • Chart 20 - Devices uses for online video viewing by device - June 2017

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