Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Last updated: 9 Jan 2018 Update History
Report Status: Archived
Report Pages: 130
Analyst: Phil Harpur
This report covers extensive statistics and forecasts for the Australian telecoms and Digital Media markets over a wide range of topics including:
Researchers:- Phil Harpur
Current publication date:- January 2018 (30th Edition)
While fixed-line telephony traffic and revenue are declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily. Fixed-line broadband on the copper network is also declining as fibre and fixed-wireless broadband services become more widely available, through the National Broadband Network (NBN)’s multi-technology architecture, with its emphasis on VDSL with Fibre-to-the Node (FttN). In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as Voice over Long-term Evolution (VoLTE).
Mobile subscriber growth is being driven by population increases as well as a rise in the number of people using two or more mobile subscriptions. Very slow growth is predicted over the next five years to 2022 with penetration rates predicted to rise only slightly above projected population increase. Revenue for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in recent years has been characterised by the continuing take up of services based on LTE technology, and to the rising proportion of mobile data to overall revenue.
For all operators, price competition combined with a focus on managing their mobile businesses as they adapt to new technologies being brought into play, have led to considerable pressure in recent years.
The release of spectrum for LTE mobile broadband use, as well as an increased uptake by consumers and businesses, is helping to offset the decline in revenue from fixed-line services, although as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed.
Other sources of revenue for the major telcos include broadband, data and IP access, business services and applications, cloud computing and other telco services. New revenue streams from fibre and cloud computing in particular are assisting the telcos to compensate for revenue losses from traditional revenue streams.
The second-tier telco market continues to grow strongly. Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation a process that is set to continue over coming years, in particular from Vocus and TPG, both of which continue to grow through increased scale via mergers and acquisitions.
Within the market there is a dynamic shift among customers to fibre networks, as this infrastructure is being built out by nbn (NBN Co), the company responsible for the national broadband deployment. Australia’s broadband sector is making improved progress in its migration to a multi-technology NBN.
Growth in the overall number of broadband subscribers is expected to continue to slow further into 2018, with most growth coming from the mobile wireless and fibre broadband markets.
The DSL sector is expected to shrink as customers are migrated to the NBN in areas where services become available, while subscribers on HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided by existing cable within the NBN’s multi-technology mix.
Internationally, the adoption of broadband ranks Australia below many other developed countries, however there has been a moderate improvement over the past two years due to the continued rollout of the nbn.
There are two major categories of paid online video content: Pay-per-view video-on-demand (PVOD) and subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services. SVOD has emerged as the major category of paid online content in Australia. The global streaming revolution is gathering pace. Streaming is closing in on broadcast TV. Rapid increase in rate of adoption of SVOD is occurring where high quality broadband is already available. NBN will accelerate this trend as the mass deployment of high quality (fibre) broadband takes place which will significantly decrease cost of delivery of SVOD.
Key companies mentioned in this report:
SingTel, Vodafone, 3, VHA, Optus, Telstra, Hutchison Australia, 3, NBN, Virgin Mobile, Macquarie Telecom, Foxtel, Fetch TV, Netflix, Stan, Facebook, Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn, iiNet, TPG, Vocus.
As you know, I have resigned from the Labor Ministry and have decided not to re-contest the seat of Charlton at the next election – both for personal reasons.
Before leaving Parliament, I particularly wish to record my thanks to you for your generous and constructive participation in the deliberations that generated significant economic policy reforms for the Australian community. Continuous economic transformation is a key challenge that faces all Governments.
The development of sound public policy should always be contestable. Ultimately, good and equitable outcomes are not concessions to any particular interest group, but the careful balancing of interests to create the greatest possible benefit for the nation. You have contributed to that, and I sincerely thank you for it.
Greg Combet, Former Minister for Climate Change, Industry and Innovation
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