2014 Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Last updated: 22 Jan 2014 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 71

Analyst: Peter Evans

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Researchers:- Peter Evans
Current publication date:- January 2014 (17th Edition)

Executive Summary

As mobile growth across Asia shifts to new generation services, data usage sees massive increase

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2015 and 2020.

Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2009	4.8	17.2%	4.8	17.2%
2010	4.9	17.2%	4.9	17.2%
2011	4.1	14.2%	4.1	14.2%
2012	3.9	13.3%	3.9	13.3%
2015	3.7	12.5%	4.2	14.2%
2020	3.5	10.7%	4.9	14.9%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia - Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers¹ (million)	HH² penetration	Subscribers¹ (million)	HH² penetration
2009	3.5	42%	3.5	42%
2010	4.7	56%	4.7	56%
2011	5.7	62%	5.7	62%
2012	6.4	66%	6.4	66%
2015	8.0	70%	13.5	75%
2020	11.0	80%	22.0	100%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Note: ¹includes all fixed and mobile wireless broadband subscribers; ²HH = household

Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2009	30.4	106%	30.4	106%
2010	33.9	119%	33.9	119%
2011	36.7	128%	36.7	128%
2012	41.3	142%	41.3	142%
2015	42.0	138%	46.0	151%
2020	48.0	145%	60.0	181%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

1. Background notes to market forecasts
2. Afghanistan
- 2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 2.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
3. Azerbaijan
- 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 3.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 3.3 Forecasts –mobile market – 2015; 2020
4. Bangladesh
- 4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 4.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 4.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
5. Cambodia
- 5.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 5.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 5.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
6. China
- 6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013-2018
- 6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2013-2018
- 6.3 Forecast internet users – 2013-2018
- 6.4 Forecast Mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
  - 6.4.1 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
  - 6.4.2 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers
7. Georgia
- 7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 7.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 7.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
8. Hong Kong
- 8.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013-2014; 2018
- 8.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2013-2014; 2018
9. India
- 9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
- 9.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2020
- 9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2020
10. Indonesia
- 10.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
- 10.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 10.3 Forecasts – mobile market: 2015; 2020
11. Japan
- 11.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- 11.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017
- 11.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017
12. Kazakhstan
- 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 12.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
13. Kyrgyzstan
- 13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 13.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 13.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
14. Laos
- 14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
- 14.2 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020
- 14.3 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020
15. Macau
- 15.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2012-2013; 2017
16. Malaysia
- 16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 16.2 Forecasts – broadband internet services – 2015; 2020
- 16.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
17. Nepal
- 17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 17.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
18. Pakistan
- 18.1 Forecast – fixed line market – 2015; 2020
- 18.2 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2020
- 18.3 Forecast – mobile market – 2015; 2020
19. Philippines
- 19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
20. South Korea
- 20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2017
- 20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- 20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012- 2013; 2017
21. Sri Lanka
- 21.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 21.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
- 21.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
22. Taiwan
- 22.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013 and 2018
- 22.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018
- 22.3 Forecast total mobile subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018
- 22.4 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018
23. Thailand
- 23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 23.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- 23.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
24. Uzbekistan
- 24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 24.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 24.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020
25. Vietnam
- 25.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
- 25.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
- 25.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
- Table 1 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 2 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 3 – Afghanistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 4 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 5 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 6 – Azerbaijan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 7 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 8 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 9 – Bangladesh – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 10 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed-line growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 11 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed internet subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 12 – Cambodia – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
- Table 13 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 14 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 15 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 16 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 17 – China – Forecast internet users and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 18 – China – Forecast internet users and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 19 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 20 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 21 – China – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2013 - 2014, 2018
- Table 22 – Georgia – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 23 – Georgia – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 24 – Georgia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 25 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 26 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band – 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 27 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 28 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 29 – India – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 30 – India – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 31 – India – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 32 – Indonesia – Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 33 – Indonesia – Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 34 – Indonesia – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 35 – Japan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013-2014; 2018
- Table 36 – Japan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013-2014; 2018
- Table 37 – Japan – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
- Table 38 – Japan – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012-2013; 2017
- Table 39 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
- Table 40 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2012; 2017
- Table 41 – Kazakhstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 42 – Kazakhstan – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 43 – Kazakhstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 44 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 45 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 46 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 47 – Laos – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 48 – Laos – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 49 – Laos – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 50 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 51 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
- Table 52 – Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 53 – Malaysia – Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 54 – Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 55 – Nepal – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 56 – Nepal – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 57 – Nepal – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 58 – Pakistan – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 59 – Pakistan – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 60 – Pakistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 61 – Philippines – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 62 – Philippines – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 63 – Philippines – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 64 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 65 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 66 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 67 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
- Table 68 – South Korea – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- Table 69 – South Korea – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
- Table 70 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 71 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 72 – Sri Lanka – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 73 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 74 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 75 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual), 2013; 2018
- Table 76 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual); 2013; 2018
- Table 77 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 78 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 79 – Taiwan – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 80 – Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
- Table 81 – Thailand – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 82 – Thailand – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
- Table 83 – Thailand – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
- Table 84 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 85 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
- Table 86 – Uzbekistan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 87 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 88 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
- Table 89 – Vietnam – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020

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