2013 Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts

Publication Overview

In this report we provide an overview and analysis of the fixed and mobile broadband market including infrastructure statistics, major internet service provider statistics and information on the key providers. BuddeComm’s 2013 Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts annual publication profiles key sectors in Australia’s broadband market.

This report also provides a statistical overview of the residential and business broadband market in Australia and includes an overview of the major network operators, wholesalers and retail service providers. The report also provides emerging statistical information on the NBN. The statistical sections of the report provide historical data as well as forecasts relating to fixed and mobile broadband usage, internet service providers and the business broadband market/sector.

Companies covered in this report include:

BigAir, Vividwireless, Unwired, VHA, TPG, Vodafone, Optus, Telstra, NBN Co, iiNet, TransACT, AUSTAR, FOXTEL, Neighbourhood Cable, M2, Primus.

Researchers:- Paul Budde, Henry Lancaster
Current publication date:- July 2013 (12th Edition)

Executive Summary

Post-election migration to the NBN secured

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Australia - Broadband Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in Australia’s fast moving broadband market. It includes surveys by government departments such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as also the regulator’s market data reports, operator data to Q1 2013 and market developments to mid-2013.

The report assesses key sectors in the market and provides an analysis of market dynamics, including statistics on infrastructure and data on the major ISPs and key providers. The report analyses both the retail and wholesale broadband service providers and examines key developments in HFC networks as well as emerging DSL technologies such as vectoring VDSL. Statistical tables and charts provide historical data as well as forecasts relating to fixed and mobile broadband usage, the operational performance of ISPs, and a break-down of business broadband market.

Fixed broadband market edging to the high-speed NBN

Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) has received widespread support from subscribers. Its implementation to the end of the decade has been secured regardless of political power-play given the Coalition’s acceptance of the infrastructure as a national asset. The progress of the NBN has been slowed by a range of commercial and operational difficulties, but NBN Co is pressing ahead as fast as is practicable, with greater uptake among subscribers as the work proceeds. These developments are bringing faster broadband to Australians, with profound consequences for the country’s economic and social framework. More detailed developments regarding the NBN are discussed in a separate report Australia - The National Broadband Network.

In this report BuddeComm analyses the fixed and mobile broadband market by separate sectors, including the business and residential sectors, the wholesale and retail sectors, and the ADSL and HFC markets. In mid-2013 the ACCC set out the terms and conditions for wholesale DSL services, setting out a pricing structure through a Final Access Determination (FAD) effective to June 2014. Wholesale prices will fall by around 15%, with lower pricing making it easier for ISPs to compete effectively in areas where it has been uneconomic to deploy their own DSL networks.

In the DSL sector there are emerging developments with DSL vectoring which could be utilised in some areas as the copper network transitions to the NBN. Yet vectoring is incompatible with some current regulatory measures and capacity remains related to distance from exchanges. Though the technology has been adopted by a small number of European ISPs it remains a cheaper stop-gap measure to provide faster broadband while fibre networks are being deployed for long term solutions.

Among Internet Service Providers (ISPs) there continues to be some consolidation with takeovers leading to a lower number of players. Further consolidation is expected into 2013/14.

In the business sector we have seen universal adoption of broadband and a growing awareness among companies for services such as video media and cloud computing. Businesses are among the keenest to switch to the NBK where it has become available.

The report’s assessment of the residential broadband market includes analyses of the key drivers behind internet adoption among Australian households, backed by data from market surveys and official statistics covering consumer usage and behavioural patterns.

HFC networks are dominated by the two major operators in Australia, Telstra and Optus. Parts of these networks have been recently upgraded to DOCSIS 3.0, in many instances providing faster broadband capability than competing DSL. Possibilities with DOCSIS 3.1 should improve download speeds further, though with broadband subscribers being migrated to the NBN these new advantages will be geared towards the cable TV sector.

Market highlights:

  • Household internet penetration is among the highest in the region, at more than 80%;
  • Broadband access revenue continues to grow, expected to reach some $3.7 billion for 2013;
  • Cloud-based usage by business increasing as backups and shared data come from faster connections;
  • Data usage is growing rapidly, particularly in the mobile broadband sector as consumers make greater use of broadband-enabled devices;
  • Average connection speeds remain low by international standards, with less than 4% of connections having a capacity above 10Mb/s, compared to 49% in South Korea;
  • The cable broadband subscriber base is expected to grow only 1% in 2013. Despite the advantages of higher data rates than in possible in many areas from DSL;
  • Developments in DOCSIS3.1 technology will help preserve the longevity and capability of HFC networks for cable TV.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013

Sector

2010

2013 (e)

Fixed broadband subscribers (million)

9.27

12.50

Wireless broadband subscribers (million)

3.47

6.04

Data traffic (PB)

191

650

(Source: BuddeComm)

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Australia. It provides further information on:

  • Technological and regulatory issues;
  • The impact of the migration to the NBN;
  • Telecoms operators – M&A activity, market developments;
  • Mobile broadband market developments in light of spectrum auctions and WiMAX/LTE deployments;
  • Revenue forecasts;
  • Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Fixed Broadband - Statistical Overview
    • 1.1 Overall size of the market
      • 1.1.1 Total broadband subscribers
      • 1.1.2 Subscribers by major providers/technology
      • 1.1.3 Market shares
    • 1.2 Access revenues
      • 1.2.1 Statistical overview
      • 1.2.2 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
    • 1.3 Other surveys and statistics
      • 1.3.1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey – update 2012
      • 1.3.2 Statistical information by technology
      • 1.3.3 Broadband speeds
      • 1.3.4 Broadband traffic
      • 1.3.5 Unmet broadband demand in Victoria
    • 1.4 ISP market overview
      • 1.4.1 The market in 2013
      • 1.4.2 Data limiting
      • 1.4.3 ISP market statistics
      • 1.4.4 ISPs contracting but some sectors may expand
      • 1.4.5 Digital Media – Triple play business models
      • 1.4.6 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) added to naked DSL
    • 1.5 Benchmarking with other countries
      • 1.5.1 Fixed broadband
      • 1.5.2 Wireless broadband
  • 2. DSL Market, Overview, Statistics and Providers
    • 2.1 Brief overview of the NBN
      • 2.1.1 Fibre to match DSL in 2015
    • 2.2 Regulatory environment – analysis
      • 2.2.1 Background
      • 2.2.2 The impact of fibre optic networks on digital subscriber line (DSL) regulation
      • 2.2.3 Unbundling of the local loop (ULL) and line sharing
      • 2.2.4 Wholesale DSL pricing
    • 2.3 DSL infrastructure
      • 2.3.1 Overview
      • 2.3.2 Tool for competitors
      • 2.3.3 DSLAM infrastructure
      • 2.3.4 Street cabinet IP DSLAM2 upgrades (Top Hat)
      • 2.3.5 VDSL developments
      • 2.3.6 VDSL vectoring
    • 2.4 Brief overview of broadband providers market
      • 2.4.1 Market consolidation
      • 2.4.2 The shrinking of ISPs
      • 2.4.3 ISP customer satisfaction
      • 2.4.4 Market share statistics
  • 3. HFC Cable Networks - Overview and Statistics
    • 3.1 Technology
      • 3.1.1 Hybrid fibre coax (HFC)
      • 3.1.2 The DOCSIS standard
      • 3.1.3 The next development for DOCSIS
    • 3.2 Market statistics and estimates
    • 3.3 Austar United Communications Ltd (AUSTAR)
      • 3.3.1 Overview
    • 3.4 BES/e-wire
      • 3.4.1 Overview
    • 3.5 TransACT
      • 3.5.1 Overview
    • 3.6 Telstra
      • 3.6.1 Background information
      • 3.6.2 DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded
    • 3.7 Optus
      • 3.7.1 Overview
      • 3.7.2 Network DOCSIS 3.0 upgraded
    • 3.8 Industry analysis
      • 3.8.1 Do we need infrastructure-based competition?
      • 3.8.2 Moving on from the HFC of the past
      • 3.8.3 No long-term future in HFC cable broadband
      • 3.8.4 HFC to be decommissioned as NBN rolls out
      • 3.8.5 From HFC to fibre-to-the-home (FttH)
  • 4. Mobile Broadband - Statistical Overview and Forecasts
    • 4.1 Market overview and analysis
      • 4.1.1 The market in 2013
      • 4.1.2 Uptake in 4G adds to mobile broadband users
      • 4.1.3 Vodafone launches LTE
      • 4.1.4 Mobile data and messaging exceeds voice revenues
      • 4.1.5 Globalgig hotspot local and international data roaming
      • 4.1.6 Capital expenditure builds into the future
      • 4.1.7 Overview of 4G frequency usage
      • 4.1.8 Spectrum reallocations
      • 4.1.9 Hardware drives applications
      • 4.1.10 Mobile broadband to drive structural change
      • 4.1.11 Mobile broadband slowly substitutes fixed services.
    • 4.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
      • 4.2.1 Mobile broadband subscribers
      • 4.2.2 Mobile broadband revenues
      • 4.2.3 Fixed wireless broadband market
    • 4.3 Forecasts and other developments
      • 4.3.1 Watch out for the next WiFi wave
      • 4.3.2 Mobile broadband boom the killer app FttH
      • 4.3.3 4G fixed-Wireless NBN for regional Australia
      • 4.3.4 Fixed/mobile call market
      • 4.3.5 Revenue forecasts
      • 4.3.6 Overview of mobile broadband worldwide
    • 4.4 Australia - mobile media – premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps
  • 5. Business Market Statistics
    • 5.1 Market trends
      • 5.1.1 Business market overview
      • 5.1.2 ISPs targeting business
      • 5.1.3 Broadbanded companies moving forward
      • 5.1.4 The NBN and the business market
      • 5.1.5 Business need faster speeds to communicate
    • 5.2 Business market surveys
      • 5.2.1 NBN Business Readiness Survey – 2013
      • 5.2.2 Remote access and operation needed
      • 5.2.3 Small Business Telecommunications Service Use and Experience
      • 5.2.4 Survey reveals moving online benefits businesses – 2013
      • 5.2.5 Telstra Productivity Indicator 2012
      • 5.2.6 Sensis – 2012 e-business report
      • 5.2.7 Optus Future of Business Report
    • 5.3 Business customer expenditure on telecoms
      • 5.3.1 Overall telecom spend – business market
      • 5.3.2 SME market statistics
  • 6. Residential Market Statistics
    • 6.1 Statistical overview residential market – total telecoms
    • 6.2 Internet household statistics
      • 6.2.1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys and internet connectivity
      • 6.2.2 Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) surveys
    • 6.3 Trends in the residential market
      • 6.3.1 Problems with broadband technology
      • 6.3.2 Data increases in volume
      • 6.3.3 Mobile broadband – no alternative to fixed line services.
      • 6.3.4 Dial-up internet not hanging up, just yet
    • 6.4 Household use of technology
      • 6.4.1 Computer technologies
      • 6.4.2 Broadband technologies
      • 6.4.3 Internet social media activities
    • 6.5 Other residential market surveys
      • 6.5.1 Stats on children and technology
      • 6.5.2 Internet hours – usage increasing in 2012
      • 6.5.3 New generations survey
      • 6.5.4 Customer service issues and the Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman (TIO)
  • 7. The National Broadband Network
    • 7.1 Introduction and Overview
      • 7.1.1 General overview of the plan
      • 7.1.2 How Australia got its NBN
      • 7.1.3 National interest utility
      • 7.1.4 NBN national infrastructure, not just telecomms
      • 7.1.5 Economic reforms
      • 7.1.6 Where is the user in all of this?
      • 7.1.7 Why wireless broadband is no alternative to FttH
    • 7.2 Surveys, Statistics and Forecasts
      • 7.2.1 Market Surveys
      • 7.2.2 Industry transformation
      • 7.2.3 Penetration Updates and forecasts
      • 7.2.4 The mobile market
      • 7.2.5 The digital economy - trans-sector market
      • 7.2.6 Business market survey
      • 7.2.7 Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
      • Table 1 – Historical - Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2004
      • Table 2 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
      • Table 3 – Broadband subscribers – total market by technology – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 4 – Broadband market – overall market share by technology – 2003 - 2013
      • Table 5 – Broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
      • Table 6 – Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2013
      • Table 7 – Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
      • Table 8 – Estimated fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2013
      • Table 9 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 10 – Broadband market share by technology and annual change – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 11 – Business, government and household internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
      • Table 12 – Subscribers’ average speed in Australia versus selected countries – 2010 - 2012
      • Table 13 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
      • Table 14 – Business, government and household internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
      • Table 15 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 16 – Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology (historic) – 2008 - 2009
      • Table 17 – Annual change in data downloaded by access technology – 2011 - 2012
      • Table 18 – Terabytes of data downloaded by sector (historic) – 2008 - 2009
      • Table 19 – Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 20 – Number of ISPs – 2001 - 2013
      • Table 21 – Fixed broadband access among internet households – selected countries – 2008 - 2013
      • Table 22 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions – Jun 2012
      • Table 23 – Wholesale DSL pricing, per month per user – 2008 – 2012
      • Table 24 – Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges – 2007 - 2008; 2010 - 2011
      • Table 25 – Number of ADSL broadband subscribers –2 008 – 2012
      • Table 26 – Number of DSLAMs by major providers – 2009 - 2012
      • Table 27 – Total number of DSLAMs – 2006 - 2012
      • Table 28 – Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges – 2013
      • Table 29 – Top Hat enabled exchanges – 2011 - 2013
      • Table 30 – ISP customer satisfaction ratings of selected ISPs – 2010 - 2011
      • Table 31 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 32 – Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
      • Table 33 – Telstra broadband subscribers by sector – 2007 – 2012
      • Table 34 – Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change – 2002 - 2013
      • Table 35 – Cable subscribers versus other broadband technologies – 2009 - 2012
      • Table 36 – Optus financial data – 2012 - 2013
      • Table 37 – Optus financial data by sector – 2012 - 2013
      • Table 38 – Optus on-net broadband subscribers – 2012 - 2013
      • Table 39 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change – 2007 - 2013
      • Table 40 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
      • Table 41 – Mobile broadband subscriber growth – 2008 - 2013
      • Table 42 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
      • Table 43 – Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2007 - 2013
      • Table 44 – Mobile broadband monthly ARPU – 2007 - 2013
      • Table 45 – Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator – 2008 - 2013
      • Table 46 – WiFi hotspots at the peak in the late 2000s
      • Table 47 – Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues – 2008; 2013; 2018
      • Table 48 – Worldwide mobile broadband subscriptions – 2010 - 2013
      • Table 49 – OECD mobile broadband subscriptions – 2011- 2012
      • Table 50 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions – 2011 - 2012
      • Table 51 – Business uptake of broadband by access type – 2010 - 2012
      • Table 52 – SME online trends – websites versus social media – 2010 - 2012
      • Table 53 – SME computer equipment ownership trends – 1999 - 2012
      • Table 54 – Computer software and hardware expenditure – SMEs versus medium businesses – 2001 - 2012
      • Table 55 – Business trends in internet connections – 1998 - 2012
      • Table 56 – SMEs internet access methods, by technology – 2010 - 2012
      • Table 57 – Top 10 current uses of the internet by SMEs – 2010 - 2012
      • Table 58 – Meeting customer expectations using internet applications – 2011 - 2012; 2015
      • Table 59 – Expectations of customer e-payments – 2011 - 2012; 2015
      • Table 60 – Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend – 2013
      • Table 61 – Estimated business and government market spending – 2013
      • Table 62 – Providers’ market share and revenue – 2013
      • Table 63 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – SME market – 2013
      • Table 64 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – residential market – 2013
      • Table 65 – Service providers’ market share and revenue in the residential market – 2013
      • Table 66 – Total households versus internet enabled households – 1999 - 2012
      • Table 67 – Broadband component of internet enabled households – 2005 - 2012; 2015
      • Table 68 – Internet access households with children – 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2011
      • Table 69 – Internet usage by age group – 2010
      • Table 70 – Data usage by users – 2008 - 2012
      • Table 71 – Dial-up and non-dial-up internet subscribers – 2003 - 2012
      • Table 72 – Computerisation in the home – 2012
      • Table 73 – Top 5 social networking age groups – 2011 - 2012
      • Table 74 – Weekly internet usage by age group – 2012
      • Table 75 – Total new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
      • Table 76 – Number of complaints to the TIO – by levels – 2009 - 2012
      • Table 77 – NBN take up rates first release sites (pre-sales indications)
      • Table 78 – Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts – 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
      • Table 79 – Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
      • Chart 1 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
      • Chart 2 – Overview of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
      • Chart 3 – Overview of annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2013
      • Chart 4 – Overview of market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2013
      • Chart 5 – Overview of fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2013
      • Chart 6 – Overview of number of ISPs by major technology – 2009 - 2011
      • Chart 7 – Overview of number of DSLAMs by top 5 providers – 2008 - 2012
      • Chart 8 – Overview of the top six ISPs with excellent customer service satisfaction ratings – 2009 - 2011
      • Chart 9 – Overview of total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
      • Chart 10 – Overview of cable broadband subscribers by operator and annual change – 2002 - 2013
      • Chart 11 – Overview of cable subscribers versus other broadband technologies – 2009 – 2012
      • Chart 12 – Overview of mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2013
      • Chart 13 – Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes – 2007 - 2013; 2015
      • Chart 14 – Business uptake of broadband by access type – 2010 – 2012
      • Chart 15 – Overview of ICT uptake issues by businesses – 2009 - 2012
      • Chart 16 – Overview of SME computer equipment ownership trends by type – 2004 - 2012
      • Chart 17 – Overview of SME versus medium-sized business computer expenditure – 2005 - 2012
      • Chart 18 – Overview of market share by major provider – 2013
      • Chart 19 – Overview of residential market – revenue and market share by major provider – 2013
      • Chart 20 – Overview of households with internet access – 2004 - 2012
      • Chart 21 – Consumer internet usage hours by category – 2006; 2010
      • Chart 22 – Overview of the decline in dial-up subscriptions – 2004 - 2012
      • Chart 23 – Overview of new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
      • Chart 24 – Overview of consumer and SME complaints by level – 2009 - 2012
      • Chart 25 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
      • Chart 26 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
      • Chart 27 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020
      • Exhibit 1 – HFC network status
      • Exhibit 2 – Business web activity and online ordering – a snapshot from the ABS – 2013
      • Exhibit 3 – Overview of the TIO complaint handling process
      • Exhibit 1- Trans-sector vs. Cross-sector
      • Exhibit 4 – Economic benefits of broadband – overview of surveys

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Regulations & Government Policies
Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)

Number of pages 108

Status Archived

Last updated 1 Jul 2013
Update History

Analyst: Paul Budde

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