2012 Philippines - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

Broadband internet surge in the Philippines continues

The mobile segment of the telecom market in the Philippines has slowed significantly after years of solid growth. The slowing reflected, among other things, a general downturn in the Philippine economy. Although the economy certainly picked up in 2010/2011, growth in mobile subscribers has continued at a generally slower pace, with mobile revenue growth also down in what has been a highly competitive market. Into 2012 the Philippines had almost 95 million mobile subscribers. Penetration had eased past the 100% milestone by that stage and continued modest growth of between 5% and 10% looked likely.

As already observed the economy will be an important factor in the continued expansion of the Philippine telecom sector. The recession in the US, its main trading partner, had hit exports hard in 2009 but the country seemed to have overcome this setback. Following the down year in 2009, the country’s GDP growth bounced up again in 2010 reaching 7.3% (matching the 31-year high of 7.3% in 2007). It then fell back to 4% in 2011. Annual growth in the range 4%-5% looked likely in the short term at least. In the meantime, the telecom industry shifted to an overall pattern of more modest growth, with the core mobile services business looking more like it was approaching maturity and the fixed-line market stagnating.

Despite mobile expansion easing, the operators were continuing to talk positively about the market’s potential and it was the mobile segment that remained central to the wider development of the country’s telecom sector. Although the sector was facing challenges there was clearly some energy remaining in it as the major operators rolled out their Third Generation (3G) mobile offerings and looked for improved revenue streams.

In the meantime the brightest news has been the growing interest in broadband services, with the major players in the local telecom market starting to invest heavily in the expansion of broadband access and looking at both wired and wireless broadband platforms to provide coverage. The demand for faster internet access was increasing rapidly by 2012. Almost 90% of all internet connections were already broadband. Overall broadband penetration remains relatively low, however, with only around seven broadband services for every 100 people in the country by the start of 2012.

The country’s fixed-line subscriber penetration has remained essentially stagnant, even slightly declining. It has certainly been a long period of difficult times for the fixed-line operators. Despite the concerted effort of both the government and the operators to expand the national fixed network, fixed-line teledensity stood at less than 4% in 2011;  only a little more than half of all Philippine towns and cities had a basic telephone service.

Key highlights

• Growth in mobile subscribers in the Philippines has slowed considerably by 2012 but had still managed to grow by 16% in 2010 followed by 9% in 2011;
• Growth in 2012 was likely to be less than 10%;
• Mobile penetration had passed the 100% milestone;
• Although the SMS market has peaked, Filipinos were still sending almost two billion SMS messages every day by early 2012;
• The country remained a global leader in SMS volumes and usage levels;
• In the meantime, Social networking websites were becoming increasingly popular and changing the shape of the telecoms market;
• Broadband Internet access in the Philippines had witnessed a five year surge in subscriber growth;
• There were an estimated seven million broadband subscribers by end-2011; however, this still only represented around 7% of the population;
• The fixed-line market had lost direction, with no growth expected in the short term;
• The Philippine telecom sector continues to be an important element in the local economy, contributing over 10% to the country’s GDP.

Philippines: - key telecom parameters – 2011 - 2012

(Source: BuddeComm)