Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Last updated: 16 Nov 2011 Update History
Report Status: Archived
Report Pages: 166
Analyst: Paul Budde
This report provides statistics and forecasts for 2012, as well as high-level commentary on the overall market, market shares by operator, and detail of 3G and prepaid and postpaid usage. For those needing detailed revenues, forecasting and analysis on the Australian telecommunications market this report provides essential reading and gives in-depth industry information on:
Researchers:- Paul Budde, Stephen McNamara
Current publication date:- November 2011 (24th Edition)
BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue passed the $40 billion mark in 2011, reflecting the mildness of the downturn in Australia compared with other countries. However, as has been the case in 2011, growth is likely to remain very subdued in 2012. This is attributable to the continued decline in the fixed-line markets and levelling off of mobile subscriptions, along with reduced pricing from operators attempting to attract increased market share.
Overall fixed line revenues across all operators fell to around $10.5 billion in 2011.
Telstra, Optus and Vodafone
Telstra still dominates the overall Australian telecoms market, although it received just under a 60% market share of overall revenues in 2011, well down from the 80% market share it held in the early 2000s.
Optus’s share of service revenues continues to stagnate between 20%-22%. However its wholesale business had a market shift in 2011 and its growth suggests that, even with a subdued market, Optus’s overall share could surpass 23% by 2013.
The merger of Vodafone and Hutchison, and the subsequent network issues, have contributed to its market share dropping slightly, and the increasing network expansion could see Vodafone return to its previous share of total industry revenue.
2nd tier market
The second-tier market is making gains in broadband and they are gearing up for IPTV, which will then be bundled into their other product offerings. Although the bundled market often sees overall revenues fall it generally maintains a higher ARPU. Further consolidation is also expected in 2012.
The fixed-voice market revenue is declining in the second-tier market, but so too are mobile and broadband revenues. Falling revenue reflects increased bundle value, as well as consumers moving away from fixed-voice services; however it may also be a symptom of increased reliance on VoIP-based and naked DSL platforms in the second-tier market. Nevertheless overall revenues in second-tier mobile services and data services (including internet access) continue to show growth.
The second-tier telcos’ share of revenue has continued to grow since 2009, being just over 9% of total revenues by mid-2011. It is expected to increase slightly by 2013, to around 12%..
The fixed broadband market in 2011 is still growing and in that year the percentage increase was higher than in the last couple of years. The increase in numbers appears to be coming from the continued drop-off in dial-up customers as they move to a faster and often cheaper service, plus the uptake by newer customers.
Some key factors that have been contributing to the slow growth of this segment – the hardware in Telstra’s exchange limitations – will be removed during 2012 with Telstra’s ‘Top Hat’ program.
Continued strong adoption of services such as Ethernet and private IP in the business data market segment saw revenue growth of around 15% in 2011.
The mobile market, now worth more than $17.5 billion, continues to expand – up 8% in 2011. As well as growth in overall SIOs, mobile broadband grows strongly, reflecting the high adoption rate of mobile broadband data cards, as well as new devices such as the iPad, Android phones and tablets, and new iPhone devices.
Declines in the fixed market limited overall telecommunications market growth in 2010 to just 2.7%, and, with the expectation of further fixed market falls, subdued broadband growth, and the likelihood of intense competition in the mobile market (which will limit ARPU growth), BuddeComm expects overall market growth to be limited to around 1%-1.5% in 2011 and 2012.
Telecommunications regulatory reform will continue to feature into 2012 as the Telecommunications Consumer Protection (TCP) Code will see increased pricing and usage monitoring. This will make it easier for consumers to manage their telecommunications costs; if this last attempt also fails service providers will face further regulations.
The other major feature will be the new regulations governing the transitional period between now and the arrival of the NBN. Subsequently other smaller and niche market operators will look for opportunities to capture a greater market share of the telecommunications revenue streams to shore up their returns.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not include data for the current year.
As usual, you’ve done a splendid job of bringing an industry well and truly into the spotlight.
I think that without your input and passion, Australia would have barely scratched the surface of the benefits that can and will be achieved with the wholesale adoption of Smart Grid and Smart City concepts.
Glenn Latch, SKYZER TECHNOLOGIES
BuddeComm's strategic business reports contain a combination of both primary and secondary research statistics, analyses written by our senior analysts supported by a network of experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the world as well as our own scenario forecasts.
For more details, please see:
A selection of downloadable samples from our Annual Publications catalogue.
Have the latest telecommunications industry news delivered to your inbox by subscribing to Paul's FREE weekly News & Views.