Last updated: 30 Jun 2009 Update History
Report Status: Archived
Report Pages: 291
Analyst: Peter Evans
Publication Overview
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in India. Subjects covered include:
· Key Statistics;
· Market and Industry Overviews;
· Regulatory Environment;
· Major Players (fixed and mobile);
· Infrastructure development – national and international;
· Convergence and Digital Media;
· Mobile Voice and Data Market;
· Internet, including VoIP and IPTV;
· Broadband services;
· Telecom market forecasts.
Researcher: Peter Evans
Current publication date:- June 2009 (15th Edition)
Next publication date:- July 2010
Executive Summary
BuddeComm’s Annual Publication, India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and converging media markets in India.
The mobile sector in particular continues its strong march forward. The country’s mobile subscriber base has already grown from around 10 million in 2002 to 350 million by the start of 2009. A number of factors have been responsible for this amazing growth, including low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator. While GSM technology remains dominant, by early 2009 CDMA was still managing to hang on to a 25% market share
The total mobile market was expanding at an annual rate of close to 50% coming into 2009. All things considered the mobile industry should continue its present strong growth for the time being. On the somewhat contentious subject of 3G licences, the delays continued up to mid-2009, by which time the most recent roadblock, a dispute between the Department of Telecommunications and the Ministry of Finance over licence fees, appeared to be close to resolution. In the meantime the two state-owned operators BSNL and MTNL had made a start on rolling out their pilot 3G networks.
With fixed-line subscribers at slightly less than 38 million in early 2009, the market has witnessed a modest decline in that particular segment. Growth initially stalled in 2006 and fixed-line numbers are not expected to pick up again for some time. (It should be noted that in 2005 India’s telecom regulator began counting fixed
Regulatory reform has been central to the development of
If anything it could be said that the regulation of the market has been overly enthusiastic; there are some signs that the market was starting to suffer from the complexity of the regulatory regime. Changing the regulation of the industry was certainly not easy with many observers initially being sceptical of the strategies adopted by the government. In parallel with the regulatory change process, there has been a continuing evolution of the market through a series of mergers and takeovers among the mobile operators that has resulted in welcome and productive consolidation. In the final analysis the so-called ‘licensing by circles’ policy has been credited with establishing a highly competitive and healthy telecoms market. Initially the circles policy had been considered complex and unwieldy. But, with the assistance of a comparatively well regulated commercial environment, with plenty of growth potential and an increasingly open market, India is proving to be an attractive telecoms destination for foreign investment with a clear way forward to further growth.
One market segment that has continued to puzzle the observer is broadband Internet. Despite the obvious enthusiasm for Internet access to be found across the country,
· The mobile market continues to move along its boom path; by early 2009,
· The mobile market continued to expand at an annual rate around 50% into 2008.
· GSM remains the dominant technology in the mobile market, but CDMA maintains a solid 25% market share.
· The number of broadband Internet subscribers in
·
· After experiencing a series of frustrating bureaucratic delays, India looks set to issue 3G licences in the second half of 2009.
· The MCIT’s target of 500 million telephone subscribers (fixed and mobile) by 2010 looks likely to be exceeded by around 100 million.
Category |
2008 |
2009 (e) |
Fixed-line services: |
||
· Total subscribers |
37.9 million |
37.0 million |
· Annual growth (e) |
-4% |
-2% |
· Fixed-line penetration (population) |
3.2% |
3.1% |
· Fixed-line penetration (household) |
19% |
18% |
Broadband Internet: |
||
· Total subscribers |
5.4 million |
7.5 million |
· Annual growth |
74% |
40% |
· Broadband penetration (population) |
0.5% |
0.6% |
· Broadband penetration (household) |
3% |
4% |
Mobile services: |
||
· Total subscribers |
347 million |
510 million |
· Annual growth |
49% |
46% |
· Mobile penetration (population) |
30% |
43% |
(Source: BuddeComm)
The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
· This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
· The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
· All statistics for
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
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