2009 Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

Last updated: 9 Nov 2009 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 152

Analyst: Stephen McNamara

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

This report provides statistics and forecasts for 2010 as well as high-level commentary on the overall market, market shares by operator and detail of 2G and 3G and prepaid and postpaid usage. For those needing detailed revenues, forecasting and analysis on the Australian telecommunications market, this report provides essential reading and gives in-depth industry information on:

· Revenue, annual growth and market share statistics;

· ISP and Internet statistics;

· Business market and Residential market broadband statistics;

· Analysis and revenue forecasting for 2010 and 2020;

· Market statistics segmentation by voice, mobile and data;

· Market segmentation and market statistics by major provider;

· Overview and market analysis of the 2nd tier telco market as well as Telstra and Optus.

Researcher:- Paul Budde

Current publication date:- November 2009 (22nd Edition)

Next publication date:- November 2010

Executive Summary

During 2010 dramatic changes will occur within the Australian telecoms market. The National Broadband Network Company will start to take shape in order to build a nationwide high-speed network based on fibre-optic and wireless technologies. All of this will assist the industry to double its size to around $80 billion by 2020.

A critical issue for the Australian telecommunications industry in 2010 is whether Telstra will be structurally separated into several separate firms in order to promote competition.

There is a strong probability growth in the Australian economy may be fairly slow in 2010 and a smaller probability that growth may even be flat. Investments in the industry are still seriously down. This is likely to translate into stagnant or low growth in telecommunications. However as consumers and businesses scrutinise discretionary spending some telephony and Internet products may become more popular.

The report provides revenue, revenue growth statistics and analysis for the telecommunications market between 2000 and 2009 by major telecommunications provider as well as our market forecasts for 2010/11. Telstra still dominates the overall Australian telecom market with a massive 66% market share of overall revenues. By mid-2010, BuddeComm predicts that Telstra will still have 65% share of the overall revenue market.

The second-tier market is on the verge of massive changes which will occur over the next few years. The critical factors are what changes to the regulatory environment will occur, and even more importantly, how the NBN develops. Second-tier companies are likely to have to reposition themselves. Second-tier firms in Australia are usually virtual service providers to the mass market which purchase services on a wholesale basis from network operators.

A number of second-tier firms are infrastructure operators of networks serving niche markets. Several second-tier firms offer a range of telephony services such as mobile and landlines, as well as internet access. A second group consists of firms which offer only one type of telephony service such as Vodafone or 3 with mobile voice and data services.

Four of the second-tier players: AAPT, Commander, Vodafone and Hutchison now have annual revenues exceeding the $1 billion mark. The second-tier segment is very interesting in terms of mergers and acquisitions in Australia. In 2009 Vodafone and Hutchison (3) in Australia, the third and fourth largest mobile network operators merged their operations. M2 acquired People Telecom in mid-2009 to create the largest firm without significant infrastructure assets, and further consolidation is expected over the period to 2011.

The total number of broadband subscribers reached 7.3 million by mid-2009, a 17% increase over the previous 12 months. Growth in recent years has been driven by further strong uptake of DSL subscribers, although recent growth has not as strong as the previous two years as the majority of the market has now made the transition from dial-up to broadband. In the longer term the development of a fibre optic network operated by a National Broadband operator is likely to have a significant impact on the take up of DSL or cable based services

The business market has been quick to embrace broadband – by 2009 the vast majority of the business sector had made the transition. Further growth is expected moving into 2010 despite difficult economic conditions in Australia. As business users gradually move to faster broadband access via ADSL2+ and, when it’s built, services from the fibre based national broadband network, businesses are increasingly embracing new broadband applications.

Total mobile services revenue earned by the major mobile operators in the financial year to 2009 surged surprisingly despite difficult broader economic conditions in Australia. The industry as a whole earned around $14.3 billion in revenue from mobile services – a growth rate of nearly 10% year-on-year.

Despite subscriber penetration rates being between 110% and 115% of the population, growth is likely to continue for the foreseeable future though the overall rate of growth may slow slightly.

Between 2010 and 2012 revenue growth is expected to be influenced by the following three major factors. The broader economic environment is perhaps the largest influence and economic growth in 2011 and 2012 could well be subdued in Australia.

Revenue growth will also be impacted because of price competition, especially in light of the merger between Vodafone and 3 in Australia to form VHA. The extent to which new telephony services are developed will influence the pace of revenue growth.

In the financial year 2009 Telstra earned more than $6 billion in revenue from mobile services and Optus earned more than $4 billion for the first time. Vodafone Australia earned just under $2.5 billion and Hutchison just over $1.5 billion.

In 2009 the merger between Vodafone and Hutchison in Australia will create a company with mobile services revenue approximately 5% lower than its nearest rival Optus. This will create an interesting market dynamic for the first time in Australia as VHA may aspire to a gaining market share at the expense of Optus.

Australian operators are likely to have more than 25 million mobile subscribers in 2011 as migration and business adoption continue to drive growth. Growth in the number of services has also been boosted in Australia in 2009 by the effective use of economic stimulus. Telstra continues to dominate the market with more than ten million subscribers, Optus has around eight million and VHA has roughly six million subscribers.

Key highlights:

· Analysis and revenue forecasting for 2010, 2015 and 2020;

· Market shares by operator;

· Mobile services revenue earned by the major mobile operators for 2008/09;

· Mobile and broadband statistics and overviews.

· Analysis of the current outlook for the major second-tier firms;

· Market survey information including e-business, broadband usage and consumer satisfaction;

· Revenue and analysis for the telecommunications market between 2000 and 2009.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. The Telecoms Market Moving Into 2010
- 1.1 Major industry developments in 2010
  - 1.1.1 National broadband network infrastructure – Australia showing global leadership
  - 1.1.2 The impact of regulatory changes on Telstra
  - 1.1.3 Why does the telco industry need to change?
  - 1.1.4 Impact of the Australian economic climate on communications
- 1.2 Mobile communications
  - 1.2.1 Vodafone – Hutchison merger is setting the scene
  - 1.2.2 Mobile competition between the major operators.
  - 1.2.3 Mobile broadband
- 1.3 Fixed voice and broadband market
  - 1.3.1 Fixed broadband – The impact of fibre optic networks on DSL regulation
  - 1.3.2 Voice over IP
- 1.4 The Digital Economy
  - 1.4.1 E-commerce
  - 1.4.2 Mobile media
  - 1.4.3 A trans-sector approach to E-health, E-education and Energy
2. Statistical overview of the telecoms market – by provider
- 2.1 Total telecommunications services market
  - 2.1.1 Revenue, revenue growth and market share by major provider
- 2.2 Telstra
  - 2.2.1 Financial results by sector
  - 2.2.2 Analysis of financial results
- 2.3 Optus
3. Statistical Overview of The Telecoms Market – By Service
- 3.1 Total telco market by major service
- 3.2 Wholesale market
- 3.3 Mobile market
- 3.4 Data and broadband market
  - 3.4.1 Internet access revenues – broadband and dial-up
  - 3.4.2 Data market
4. 2nd-Tier telco market
- 4.1 Overview of second-tier telecommunications market
- 4.2 Market analysis in 2009
  - 4.2.1 The impact of the NBN
  - 4.2.2 The transition period
- 4.3 Major second-tier companies
  - 4.3.1 Vodafone and Hutchison
  - 4.3.2 AAPT/PowerTel must look for successful merger
  - 4.3.3 iiNet continues to perform strongly
  - 4.3.4 M2
  - 4.3.5 Primus continues to struggle
  - 4.3.6 Macquarie Telecom
  - 4.3.7 Soul acquires TPG and Chariot – but TPG is the winner
  - 4.3.8 Amcom – a star performer in a growing niche market
- 4.4 Service revenues and market shares
  - 4.4.1 Total market by major service
  - 4.4.2 Total market by major players
5. Market forecasts – 2010 - 2020
- 5.1 Total overhaul of the industry
- 5.2 Infrastructure market
- 5.3 The retail market
- 5.4 The Mobile market
- 5.5 The Trans-sector market
- 5.6 The digital media market
- 5.7 Business models and Merger and Acquisitions (M&A)
  - 5.7.1 Fixed market scenarios
  - 5.7.2 Mobile market scenarios
6. Broadband Market
- 6.1 Statistical overview and forecasts
  - 6.1.1 Household statistics
  - 6.1.2 Market subscribers and forecasts
  - 6.1.3 Market shares – 2009
  - 6.1.4 ADSL subscriber statistics
  - 6.1.5 ADSL2+ Statistics
  - 6.1.6 Internet access revenues
  - 6.1.7 Broadband access revenues
  - 6.1.8 Residential market – where the long term potential exists
  - 6.1.9 Long-term forecast – 2015
  - 6.1.10 Market segment forecasts
- 6.2 Business market
  - 6.2.1 Market trends
  - 6.2.2 Business market surveys
- 6.3 Residential market
  - 6.3.1 Residential usage trends
  - 6.3.2 Revenue spend in the residential market
  - 6.3.3 Australians use of technology
  - 6.3.4 Household use of Internet IT
  - 6.3.5 ACMA survey – consumer attitudes towards Internet takeup
  - 6.3.6 Other residential market surveys
7. ISP and Internet Statistics
- 7.1 ISP market overview – where is the industry heading?
  - 7.1.1 The market in 2009
  - 7.1.2 New business models are required
  - 7.1.3 Household statistics
  - 7.1.4 Are low end fixed Internet users interested in HSPA?
  - 7.1.5 Triple play business models
  - 7.1.6 Dial-up Internet still has some life left in it yet
  - 7.1.7 VoIP
  - 7.1.8 Internet media companies
- 7.2 ACMA – Survey on Internet activity and content
  - 7.2.1 Overview
  - 7.2.2 E-commerce
  - 7.2.3 Social networking
- 7.3 ABS survey of Internet activity
  - 7.3.1 June 2009
  - 7.3.2 December 2008
  - 7.3.3 June 2008 – overview
  - 7.3.4 December 2007 – overview
  - 7.3.5 Internet subscribers
  - 7.3.6 Dial-up and non-dial-up subscribers
  - 7.3.7 Business, government and household subscribers
  - 7.3.8 Number of ISPs by download speed and size
- 7.4 ABS survey – Internet Activity – 2009
  - 7.4.1 Broadband Internet access
  - 7.4.2 International comparison
8. Mobile Communications Market
- 8.1 Revenue overview
  - 8.1.1 Statistical sources
  - 8.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
  - 8.1.3 Operator statistics
- 8.2 Subscriber statistics
  - 8.2.1 Total subscribers and annual growth rates
  - 8.2.2 Operator market shares and growth
  - 8.2.3 2G and 3G subscribers
  - 8.2.4 Prepaid and postpaid subscribers by operator
  - 8.2.5 Wholesale market
9. Wireless Broadband
- 9.1 Statistical overview
  - 9.1.1 Market overview
  - 9.1.2 Wireless broadband market statistics
  - 9.1.3 Mobility market
10. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Total telecoms service revenue by major provider – 2000 - 2011
Table 2 – Total telecoms service annual change by major provider – 2001 - 2011
Table 3 – Total telecoms service market share by major provider – 2000 - 2011
Table 4 – Telstra Group total revenue – 1994; 1996; 1998; 2000 - 2011
Table 5 – Telstra Group revenue by service – 2008 - 2009
Table 6 – Telstra fixed telephony revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 7 – Telstra PSTN products revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 8 – Telstra mobile revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 9 – Telstra Internet revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 10 – Telstra IP and data access revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 11 – Telstra offshore controlled entities revenue and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 12 – Optus overall operating revenue summary and annual change – 1994; 1996; 1998; 2000 - 2011
Table 13 – Optus revenue by major service division and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 14 – Optus operational EBITDA by operating division – 2008 - 2009
Table 15 – Optus mobile revenue by division and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 16 – Optus Business and Wholesale fixed revenue by service – 2008 - 2009
Table 17 – Optus Consumer and SMB fixed revenue by service – 2008 - 2009
Table 18 – Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2000 - 2011
Table 19 – Total telecoms market – annual retail growth by service – 2001 - 2011
Table 20 – Total telecoms market – retail market share by service – 2000 - 2011
Table 21 – Wholesale market revenues by major supplier – 1997 - 2011
Table 22 – Wholesale market shares by major supplier – annual change – 1998 - 2011
Table 23 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1994 - 2011
Table 24 – Mobile services market revenue per major operator – 1994 - 2011
Table 25 – Annual change of mobile services market per major operator – 1994 - 2011
Table 26 – Average ARPU ($ per month) across all operators – 1994 - 2011
Table 27 – Data market (including broadband) revenue by provider – 1999 - 2011
Table 28 – Data market (including broadband) annual change by provider – 2000 - 2011
Table 29 – Data market (including broadband) – market share by provider – 2000 - 2011
Table 30 – Selected second-tier telco revenues by service – 2003 - 2010
Table 31 – Second-tier telco revenues by service – annual change – 2004 - 2010
Table 32 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider – 2003 - 2010
Table 33 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – annual change – 2003 - 2010
Table 34 – Second tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2003 - 2010
Table 35 – Size of fixed trans-sector market – 2020
Table 36 – Size of mobile trans-sector market – 2020
Table 37 – Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 38 – Telecommunications services revenue share by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 39 – Australian Internet users and penetration rate – 2003 - 2009
Table 40 – Broadband component of Internet households – 2005 - 2010; 2015
Table 41 – Fixed broadband access among Internet households – selected countries – 2003 - 2009
Table 42 – Broadband market share by technology and annual change – 2008 - 2009
Table 43 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 1996 - 2011
Table 44 – Broadband subscribers – total market – retail and wholesale values – 2003 - 2010
Table 45 – Broadband annual market – annual growth – retail and wholesale values – 2004 - 2010
Table 46 – Broadband subscribers – market shares – retail values – 2004 - 2010
Table 47 – Broadband subscribers – market shares (cable, ADSL totals) – wholesale values – 2004 - 2010
Table 48 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2004 - 2009
Table 49 – Broadband ADSL retail subscribers by major provider – annual change – 2005 - 2009
Table 50 – ADSL2+ subscribers by provider – 2006 - 2009
Table 51 – Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – 2003 - 2010
Table 52 – Annual change in Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – 2004 - 2010
Table 53 – Market share of Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – 2004 - 2010
Table 54 – Broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2010
Table 55 – Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2010
Table 56 – Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2010
Table 57 – Total fixed wireless broadband revenues – 2005 - 2009
Table 58 – Revenue make-up scenario forecasting – operational and structural separation – 2010
Table 59 – Residential spend per household per annum – 2003; 2010; 2015
Table 60 – Overview total Telecoms/Internet market – 2015
Table 61 – Broadband revenues – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 62 – Broadband market share by technology – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 63 – Business and government market spending – mid-2000s
Table 64 – SME computer equipment ownership trends – 1999 - 2009
Table 65 – SME computer software and hardware expenditure – 2006 - 2009
Table 66 – Business trends in Internet connections – 1995 - 2009
Table 67 – How SMEs access the Internet – 2009
Table 68 – Summary of current and expected uses of the Internet by SMEs – 2009
Table 69 – Security methods utilised for remote access to networks – 2008 - 2009
Table 70 – Devices used to connect to networks – 2008 - 2009
Table 71 – Employees work locations – home, workplace or off site – 2008 - 2010
Table 72 – Changes in usage of non-voice applications on 3G handsets – 2010
Table 73 – Plans for convergence of data & voice networks – 2005; 2008 - 2009
Table 74 – Growth in residential and business data usage – 2008 - 2009
Table 75 – Residential market revenue by industry segment – 2008
Table 76 – Computerisation in the home – 2009
Table 77 – Total households with home Internet access – 2000 - 2008
Table 78 – Households with home Internet access – 2000 - 2008
Table 79 – Households with home Internet access by region – 2000 - 2008
Table 80 – Top 10 Internet applications performed over 4 weeks – 2008
Table 81 – Top 10 Internet activities – broadband versus dial-up – 2008
Table 82 – Weekly hours of Internet usage by user type – 2006 - 2008
Table 83 – Frequency of Internet use by age – 2008
Table 84 – Internet take-up by metropolitan/non-metropolitan area – 2007
Table 85 – Internet take-up by access type – 2007
Table 86 – Broadband take-up by access type – 2009
Table 87 – Number of ISPs – 1995 - 2010
Table 88 – Number of ISPs by technology – 2007
Table 89 – Australian Internet users and penetration rate – 2003 - 2010
Table 90 – Internet household penetration forecasts – 2008 - 2012
Table 91 – Proportion of ISPs by size in the Australian market – 2008 - 2009
Table 92 – Business, government and household Internet subscribers – 2007 - 2009
Table 93 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 - 2009
Table 94 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2007 - 2009
Table 95 – Data downloaded by access technology – 2007 - 2009
Table 96 – Internet subscribers by access type for all ISPs – 2005 - 2010
Table 97 – Internet households & business subscribers – 1985; 1990; 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2009
Table 98 – Dial-up and non-dial-up Internet subscribers – 2003 - 2009
Table 99 – Business, government and household Internet subscribers – 2005 - 2009
Table 100 – Total number of ISPs in Australia by size (historic) – 2000 - 2007
Table 101 – Households with access to a home computer and the Internet – Australia and selected countries – 2007 - 20081
Table 102 – Selected country comparison of monthly at-home Internet usage – 2007; 2009
Table 103 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 - 2012
Table 104 – Mobile services market revenue per major operator – 1994 - 2012
Table 105 – Annual change of mobile services market per major operator – 1994 - 2012
Table 106 – Mobile services revenue share per major operator – 2000 - 2012
Table 107 – Estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice and data – 2007 - 2010
Table 108 – Total mobile voice revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2010
Table 109 – Mobile voice revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue – 2007 - 2010
Table 110 – Total mobile data revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2010
Table 111 – Growth mobile data revenue per major operator – 2008 - 2010
Table 112 – Total mobile messaging revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2010
Table 113 – Total mobile data (non messaging) revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2010
Table 114 – Growth in mobile data (non-messaging) revenue per major operator – 2008 - 2010
Table 115 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – 2000 - 2009
Table 116 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – annual change – 2004 - 2009
Table 117 – Postpaid ARPU per month – Telstra, Optus and Vodafone – 2004 - 2009
Table 118 – Prepaid ARPU per month – Telstra, Optus and Vodafone – 2004 - 2009
Table 119 – Mobile data ARPU per month – Telstra and Hutchison – 2004 - 2009
Table 120 – 2G versus 3G subscriber ARPU per month – Telstra – 2006 - 2009
Table 121 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 1995 - 2010
Table 122 – Mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995 - 2010
Table 123 – Annual growth rate of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995 - 2010
Table 124 – Mobile subscriber market share by operator – 1995 - 2010
Table 125 – 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2003 - 2010
Table 126 - Annual growth rate of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2007 - 2010
Table 127 – Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2010
Table 128 – 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2006 - 2010
Table 129 - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier - 2007 - 2010
Table 130 – Prepaid subscribers per operator – 2006 - 2010
Table 131 – Prepaid subscribers – market share by operator – 2006 - 2010
Table 132 – Number of mobile phone services in operation – pre and postpaid – 2006 - 2010
Table 133 – Wholesale subscribers – Telstra and Optus – 2006 - 2009
Table 134 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change – 2006 - 2010
Table 135 – 3G wireless broadband subscribers by mobile operator – 2007 - 2008
Table 136 – Total fixed wireless broadband revenues and annual change – 2006 - 2010
Table 137 – Wireless broadband monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2010
Table 139 – Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2008
Table 140 – Forecast mobile wireless data and voice revenues – 2008; 2013; 2018

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