2008 Australia - Broadband Market - Overview and Statistics

Last updated: 28 May 2008 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 137

Analyst: Stephen McNamara

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

For those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis of Australia’s fixed broadband market in Australia, this report provides essential reading and gives in-depth information on:

Statistical overviews on subscribers, revenues, market shares, forecasting and international rankings.
Competitive information on the market, the industry and the players.
Overview of the real innovators in this market and what are they offering.
How the market should operate in order to increase investments, maximize the value of the infrastructure and open up new revenue streams.
Insight into the market and the industry: ADSL, ADSL2+, DSLAMs, VDSL, cable modems, FttH and FttN.
Unravelling of the infrastructure debate and an indication of what is really needed, and when.
Analyses of the Government and Opposition plans and policies – the government’s role needs to change significantly, especially in relation to the provision of regional infrastructure.
Market surveys and statistical overviews of the business and residential markets, assisting customers to make their own assessments for their own organizations.

Researcher:- Phil Harpur, Paul Budde

Current publication date: May 2008 (7^th Edition)

Next publication date: May 2009

Executive Summary

Broadband is seen as being vital to both the economy and the community. BuddeComm estimates that it will add over $100 billon to the Australian economy over the next ten to fifteen years, by organisations that will use broadband as a critical element in their business model; in the distribution of their services to their customers; and as a communication, electronic marketing and electronic production tool. Savings in health care, education and energy needs to be added to this list.

All this requires proper planning and government and industry debates. Within the next two to three years most Internet households will be based on broadband. However, it will not be until other broadband devices are available, over the next five years, that broadband will spiral beyond the Internet households.

Because the rest of the world is progressing much more quickly (Australia is still running approximately 2 years behind its counterparts), Australia is losing out on competitive advantage. Furthermore, the Australian people are missing out on important lifestyle improvements. The key factor for this failure however, is moving from technology to affordability. While the technology has become available (ADSL2+), the price is too high for 60%+ of current broadband users.

Recent regulatory changes have also seen the ACCC putting its emphasis on facilities-based competition (ULL and DSLAMs) rather than on resale. This further undermines the position of not just the smaller ISPs, but also of the larger ISPs, like Primus and AAPT, which have significant numbers of resale customers. For more information, see chapter 1.2, page 2.

After having struggled for nearly a decade to get ULL implemented, it is rather ironic that the government has now proposed to close this level of competition with its National Broadband Network Request for Proposal. While the Minister recognizes the problem and has indicated that he will address it, there are currently no guarantees that the current ULL/DSLAM environment will be secured. Without any structural changes proposed under the RFP either, it is very much in Telstra’s interest to build as quickly as possible a new monopoly, this time based on FttN.

As it currently stands ULL and its DSLAM infrastructure will become obsolete once the FttN network is in place. It is most likely that this will happen in metro Australia within a very few short years. In regional areas the copper-based network will of course linger on for many more years, as it will be far more economically difficult to upgrade the infrastructure here. For more information, see chapter 3.3.4.1, page 62.

At the same time the government is fully aware of the effects that this will have on competition and it is more than likely that a compromise will be struck on the issue.

Key highlights

The total number of broadband subscribers reached 4.4 million by mid-2007, a 29% increase over the 12 months. This compares with a 64% increase in subscribers to mid-2006.
For the 12 months to mid-2008 the annual growth should slow down further to 19%, to reach around 5.2 million broadband subscribers. For more information, see chapter 1.1.5, page 2.
Broadband subscriber growth started to slow down in 2007, and will taper off further during the 2008 to 2010 period. Australia is still trailing two years behind penetration levels in Europe and Asia.
The market is beginning to approach the natural broadband subscriber ceiling of around 7 million subscribers. For more information, see chapter 4.1, page 73.
In the retail market, Telstra ADSL constituted about 34% of the market in 2007 and resellers took about 49% of the retail market. Telstra Cable and Optus Cable constituted around 7% of the market each and other operators, around 4% of the market.
By 2015 we estimate that the broadband market (including digital media) will have grown to around $45 billion, by which time it will have absorbed what we now call the data communications market as well.
Approximately 90% of Australia’s national network could feasibly be upgraded with an FttH rollout. We believe this will ultimately happen over a 10-year period to 2018; the remainder of the national network will need to be serviced by wireless and satellite access providers.

Broadband subscribers – market shares by operators – retail values – 2004 - 2009

Service	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008 (e)	2009 (e)
Service	Market share of category (mid-year)
Telstra ADSL	35.3%	26.0%	29.2%	34.1%	34.4%	34.6%
ADSL retailers	37.7%	50.0%	50.9%	46.7%	46.9%	47.1%
Telstra Cable	7.8%	9.5%	8.3%	7.6%	7.2%	6.8%
Optus Cable	14.2%	10.7%	8.4%	7.9%	7.5%	7.0%
Other¹	5.0%	3.8%	3.2%	3.6%	4.0%	4.5%
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

(Source: BuddeComm)

Note: ¹Other category includes other cable operators such as TransACT; fixed wireless broadband operators consisting such as Unwired and PBA and mobile 3G operators.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Overview and Analysis – 2008
- 1.1 Market and industry analysis mid-2008
  - 1.1.1 Focus on infrastructure-based competition
  - 1.1.2 FttH is the way forward
  - 1.1.3 ADSL2+ from Telstra is too expensive
  - 1.1.4 Safeguarding competition
  - 1.1.5 Over 5 million subscribers
- 1.2 ISP market overview – where is the industry heading?
  - 1.2.1 The market in 2008
  - 1.2.2 New business models are required
- 1.3 Broadband in a broader perspective – analyses
  - 1.3.1 What is broadband and why is it needed?
  - 1.3.2 Analysis - no future in HFC cable broadband
  - 1.3.3 The end of ULL and DSLAMS
  - 1.3.4 Telstra making all the right NGN moves
- 1.4 Broadband statistics and forecasts
  - 1.4.1 Household statistics
  - 1.4.2 Broadband subscribers
  - 1.4.3 Market shares – 2008
  - 1.4.4 Market segment forecasts – 2005 - 2015
- 1.5 Home networks
- 1.6 FttH projects and developments
- 1.7 Government’s National Broadband Plan
- 1.8 Policy analysis – the way forward has to be FttH
- 1.9 Local FttN versus FttC network developments
- 1.10 Telstra’s FttN plan
- 1.11 Forecasting FttH
2. Broadband Market Analyses
- 2.1 Infrastructure analyses
  - 2.1.1 What is broadband and why is it needed?
  - 2.1.2 Damning report from Engineers Australia
  - 2.1.3 National backbone needs to increase one hundredfold
  - 2.1.4 Boom and bust cycle in local access
  - 2.1.5 Broadband deteriorating in regional Australia
  - 2.1.6 ACCC needs to facilitate NGN industry workgroup
  - 2.1.7 Analysis of Telstra’s NGN progress
  - 2.1.8 Incumbents are running behind
  - 2.1.9 Analysis of other infrastructure initiatives
  - 2.1.10 Infrastructure broadband map for Australia – update 2008
- 2.2 Developments 2007-2008
  - 2.2.1 Mexican stand-off on broadband infrastructure
  - 2.2.2 Broadband now mainstream
  - 2.2.3 New broadband infrastructure initiatives
  - 2.2.4 Regions can be commercially broadbanded
  - 2.2.5 Bringing some sanity into the broadband debate
  - 2.2.6 OECD vindicated re its broadband data
  - 2.2.7 Broadband: Australia is on the right track
  - 2.2.8 Government’s National Broadband Plan
  - 2.2.9 Analysis of government’s NBN RFP
  - 2.2.10 FttH Special Interest Group
  - 2.2.11 Low demand density for broadband services
  - 2.2.12 Can we stop the broadband train crash?
  - 2.2.13 Telstra moving towards VDSL
  - 2.2.14 Broadband Blueprint?
- 2.3 Government’s National Broadband Plan
  - 2.3.1 A Broadband Future for Australia
  - 2.3.2 Analyses of the plan
  - 2.3.3 The Minister preparing to shake up the industry
  - 2.3.4 Open Access is imperative
3. Broadband Overview and Service Providers
- 3.1 Network operators and wholesalers
  - 3.1.1 Internet media companies
  - 3.1.2 The broadband industry
  - 3.1.3 VDSL (VDSL2)
  - 3.1.4 DSL operators
  - 3.1.5 HFC networks
  - 3.1.6 Electricity utilities
  - 3.1.7 Consolidation
- 3.2 ADSL2+ providers
  - 3.2.1 Telstra
  - 3.2.2 Optus
  - 3.2.3 AAPT and Powertel
  - 3.2.4 Internode
  - 3.2.5 Exetel
  - 3.2.6 iiNet
  - 3.2.7 Adam Internet
  - 3.2.8 Netspace
  - 3.2.9 Telarus
- 3.3 DSLAMs and ADSL2
  - 3.3.1 Unbundling of the Local Loop (ULL) and line sharing
  - 3.3.2 DSLAMs
  - 3.3.3 Overview of ADSL2+
  - 3.3.4 Market analysis
  - 3.3.5 Other market developments
  - 3.3.6 New business models
  - 3.3.7 High-speed Internet & High Definition TV to regional & rural areas
- 3.4 Cable modems
  - 3.4.1 Analysis – no future in HFC cable broadband
  - 3.4.2 From HFC to FttH – analysis
  - 3.4.3 Market statistics and forecasts
  - 3.4.4 Telstra
  - 3.4.5 Optus
  - 3.4.6 Technology
  - 3.4.7 Cable modems versus xDSL
4. Market Statistics and Forecasts
- 4.1 Statistical overview and forecast
  - 4.1.1 Household statistics
  - 4.1.2 Market subscribers and forecasts – 2008
  - 4.1.3 Market shares – 2008
  - 4.1.4 ADSL subscriber statistics
  - 4.1.5 ADSL2+ statistics
  - 4.1.6 Internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up)
  - 4.1.7 Residential market – where the long term potential exists
  - 4.1.8 Long-term forecast – 2015
  - 4.1.9 Market segment forecasts – 2005 - 2015
- 4.2 ISP, Internet & broadband statistics
  - 4.2.1 ISP market overview – where is the industry heading?
  - 4.2.2 ABS survey of Internet and ISP activity – December 2007
  - 4.2.3 ABS survey – household use of Internet information technology – 2007
  - 4.2.4 Other market surveys
- 4.3 Business market
  - 4.3.1 Market trends
  - 4.3.2 Business market – historic data mid-2000s
  - 4.3.3 Business market surveys
- 4.4 Residential market
  - 4.4.1 Household use of Internet IT – ABS survey – 2007
  - 4.4.2 ACMA survey – consumer attitudes towards Internet takeup
  - 4.4.3 Sensis e-business report – 2007
  - 4.4.4 Other residential market surveys
5. Satellite Services
- 5.1 Satellite remains niche business
- 5.2 Broadband is threatening satellite TV
- 5.3 Broadband Guarantee
- 5.4 Market forecasts
- 5.5 Satellite services from Telstra
  - 5.5.1 Introduction
  - 5.5.2 Iterra Satellite Service – mobile satellite communications
  - 5.5.3 Telstra BigPond Satellite
  - 5.5.4 Telstra places an order with Iridium Based Satellite
- 5.6 BorderNET Internet
- 5.7 Elders Limited
- 5.8 SES New Skies
- 5.9 Optus satellite services
  - 5.9.1 Overview
  - 5.9.2 The satellites
  - 5.9.3 The Optus satellites
  - 5.9.4 The Earth stations
  - 5.9.5 Satellite history to 2007
  - 5.9.6 Optus MobileSat
  - 5.9.7 Wireless broadband communities
  - 5.9.8 Pay TV services
- 5.10 NewSat Ltd
  - 5.10.1 Major features
- 5.11 IPSTAR - Shin Satellite
  - 5.11.1 ETT - national provider of IPSTAR satellite
- 5.12 Inmarsat
- 5.13 Orion Satellite Systems pty ltd
- 5.14 ReachneT
6. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Number of ISPs – 1995 - 2009
Table 2 – Australian Internet users and penetration – 2003 - 2008
Table 3 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 1996 - 2010
Table 4 – Broadband subscribers – market shares – retail values – 2004 - 2009
Table 5 – Broadband subscribers – market shares – wholesale values – 2004 - 2009
Table 6 – Broadband revenues – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 7 – Number of Australian households and technology penetration – 2007
Table 8 – Broadband component of Internet households – 2005 - 2010; 2015
Table 9 – Broadband availability by access technology – June 2007
Table 10 – Number of DSLAMs by provider – 2006 - 2008
Table 11 – Number of ADSL2+ enabled exchanges – 2006 - 2007
Table 12 – Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enable exchanges* – 2006 - 2007
Table 13 – Cable broadband subscribers by operator and annual change – 2002 - 2009
Table 14 – Australian Internet users and penetration – 2003 - 2008
Table 15 – Broadband component of Internet households – 2005 - 2010; 2015
Table 16 – Broadband access among Internet households – selected countries – 2002 - 2008
Table 17 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 1996 - 2009
Table 18 – Percentage of broadband users at speeds 1.5Mb/s+ as percentage of total broadband users – 2005 - 2008
Table 19 – Broadband subscribers – total market – retail values – 2003 - 2009
Table 20 – Broadband subscribers – total market – wholesale values – 2003 - 2009
Table 21 – Broadband subscribers – total market – annual growth – retail values – 2004 - 2009
Table 22 – Broadband subscribers – total market – annual growth – wholesale values – 2004 - 2009
Table 23 – Broadband subscribers – market shares – retail values – 2004 - 2009
Table 24 – Broadband subscribers – market shares – wholesale values – 2004 - 2009
Table 25 – Broadband subscribers – market shares (cable, ADSL totals) – retail values – 2004 - 2009
Table 26 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2003 - 2007
Table 27 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 28 – ADSL2+ subscribers by provider – 2006 - 2008
Table 29 – Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – 2003 - 2008
Table 30 – Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – annual change – 2004 - 2008
Table 31 – Internet access revenues (dial-up and broadband) by major provider – market share – 2004 - 2008
Table 32 – Revenue make-up scenario forecasting – 2010
Table 33 – Residential spend per household per annum – 2003; 2010; 2015
Table 34 – Overview total telecoms/Internet market – 2015
Table 35 – Broadband revenues – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 36 – Broadband market share by technology – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 37 – Number of ISPs – 1995 - 2009
Table 38 – Internet households & business subscribers – 1985; 1990; 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2007
Table 39 – Dial-up and non-dial-up Internet subscribers – 2003 - 2007
Table 40 – Business, government and household Internet subscribers – 2005 - 2007
Table 41 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2007
Table 42 – Total number of ISPs in Australia by size – 2000 - 2007
Table 43 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2006 - 2007
Table 44 – Household Internet connection by type of access – 2004 - 2007
Table 45 – Household Internet connection by type of access – 2006 - 2007
Table 46 – Personal use of the Internet by type of access – 2006 - 2007
Table 47 – Household Internet access by type of broadband access – 2006 - 2007
Table 48 – Households with access to a home computer and the Internet – Australia and selected countries – 2007
Table 49 – Business and government market spending – mid-2000s
Table 50 – Percentage of business usage of technology – 1994; 1998; 2000 - 2006
Table 51 – Business use of information technology – summary indicators – 2002 - 2006
Table 52 – Percentage of businesses with computer, Internet & web presence by region – 2005 - 2006
Table 53 – Percentage of businesses with computer, Internet & web presence by employment size – 2005 - 2006
Table 54 – Main type of Internet connection – by region – June 2006
Table 55 – Main type of broadband connection by region – June 2006
Table 56 – Selected business Internet activities – June 2006
Table 57 – Selected business web features – June 2006
Table 58 – Business use of the Internet and websites – Australia and selected countries – June 2006
Table 59 – Take-up of Internet services – farms versus households – April 2007
Table 60 – Internet and broadband take-up – households, SME, farm sector – 2007
Table 61 – Broadband technology by state for farms – April 2007
Table 62 – Farm broadband take-up by technology – April 2007
Table 63 – Take-up of telecommunications services – farm versus household – April 2007
Table 64 – Household consumer satisfaction with ISP – July 2006 - June 2007
Table 65 – Household consumer likelihood of switching ISP – July 2006 - June 2007
Table 66 – Total households with access to a home computer – 1999 - 2007
Table 67 – Households with access to a home computer – 1999 - 2007
Table 68 – Households with access to a home computer by region – 1999 - 2007
Table 69 – Total households with home Internet access – 1999 - 2007
Table 70 – Households with home Internet access – 1999 - 2007
Table 71 – Households with home Internet access by region – 1999 - 2007
Table 72 – Percentage use of the Internet according to location – 2006 - 2007
Table 73 – Percentage use of the Internet at home by purpose – 2006 - 2007
Table 74 – Frequency of use of the Internet at home by gender and region – 2006 - 2007
Table 75 – Percentage use of the Internet at home by purpose – 2006 - 2007
Table 76 – Usage of telecommunication services by device – 2007
Table 77 – Internet take-up by metropolitan/non-metropolitan area – 2007
Table 78 – Internet take-up by access type – 2007
Table 79 – Broadband take-up by access type – 2007

Exhibit 1 – How many Expert Groups?
Exhibit 2 – Residential Broadband (BB) growth predictions – next ten years
Exhibit 3 – Infrastructure blueprint
Exhibit 4 – Overview of physical distribution networks for high-speed services
Exhibit 5 – Fixed networks – 2008
Exhibit 6 – Wireless networks – 2008
Exhibit 7 – Secondary technologies – 2008
Exhibit 8 – Multimedia/hybrids technologies – 2008
Exhibit 9 – HFC network status
Exhibit 10 – Advice for information highway contenders

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