The Chinese telecommunications market is the largest in the world. The importance of the regulatory regime must not be underestimated in a market like China, where political and commercial considerations are closely intertwined. Major efforts in reform have addressed the separation of administrative and enterprise functions, the dissolution of monopolies and the promotion of competition in the country’s telecom industry. The mobile sector has two of the largest operators in the world with close to 600 million subscribers by mid 2008. The mobile industry was continuing its strong run towards end 2008, despite there still being no announcement on the 3G licensing. By contrast fixed-line services began experiencing zero to negative growth. Despite this, the Internet was booming and in early 2008 China became the world leader in Internet subscribers, surpassing the USA. This report looks at the fixed-line, mobile, Internet and broadband segments of the market in China and provides scenario forecasts for 2008, 2013 and 2018 for each of the market segments. The forecasts are based on historical data from the 1990’s considering population and GDP growth. The projections to 2013 and 2018 consider lower than previous economic growth in both the high and low forecasts, but are still based on improved teledensity figures as the government drives forward with economic reform and infrastructure expansion.
Table of Contents
3. Scenario forecasts
3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2018
3.2 Forecasts – Internet services to 2018
3.3 Forecasts – broadband market to 2018
3.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2018
3.5 Notes on scenario forecasts
4. Related reports
Table 1 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration – lower growth scenario – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 2 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration – higher growth scenario – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
As you know, I have resigned from the Labor Ministry and have decided not to re-contest the seat of Charlton at the next election – both for personal reasons.
Before leaving Parliament, I particularly wish to record my thanks to you for your generous and constructive participation in the deliberations that generated significant economic policy reforms for the Australian community. Continuous economic transformation is a key challenge that faces all Governments.
The development of sound public policy should always be contestable. Ultimately, good and equitable outcomes are not concessions to any particular interest group, but the careful balancing of interests to create the greatest possible benefit for the nation. You have contributed to that, and I sincerely thank you for it.
Greg Combet, Former Minister for Climate Change, Industry and Innovation