Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Publication Overview

Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 31 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Researchers:- Phil Harpur
Current publication date:- June 2017 (20th Edition)

Executive Summary

Fixed broadband will see strong growth in some developing Asian markets

The telecom market across Asia has an estimated total of 4.15 billion mobile subscribers by 2017. This sector of the overall market continues to experience moderate growth; however, in the more developed markets, growth is shifting away from a focus on subscriber numbers towards the expansion of new generation platforms and increased data usage driven by value-added services and increased ARPUs.

Looking over the next five years, countries with high mobile penetration rates such as Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Maldives and Kazakhstan are expected to see the slowest growth over the next five years to 2021 due to the relatively high state of maturity in their markets.

There are in fact few countries left in Asia with significantly underdeveloped mobile markets and low mobile penetration rates. Further to this, some Asian countries with relatively underdeveloped telecoms markets, have mobile penetration rates which are often quite high. Compared to more advanced nations such as Japan, Sri Lanka for example has a mobile penetration rate of 127% but a fixed broadband penetration of only 4%. Many of these countries have seen their telecoms markets develop by leapfrogging past fixed broadband, directly to mobile networks which are relatively less expensive to roll out. Countries in this category with very low fixed broadband penetration such Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Cambodia will see relatively high growth rates of fixed broadband, however because fixed broadband subscriber growth is coming from such a small base, the overall increase in penetration rates with be only modest. In these markets, mobile networks are now relatively established and will be the main driver of growth over the next five years.

Only a handful of Asian countries have mobile penetration rates under 90%, these include: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. These countries are generally expected to see moderate mobile subscriber growth over the next five years, as they strive to catch up with the rest of Asia.

The expansion of broadband was for a long time a phenomenon limited to the developed economies, with narrowband dial-up access being the norm in the majority of the poorer developing countries of the region. However this has been gradually changing. In those economies, there is now increasing access to broadband, both DSL and cable modem platforms have both proved popular, with DSL establishing a clear advantage. More recently, we have seen the arrival of FttX as an alternative platform for broadband access in Asia. There also continues to be considerable activity in the broadband markets across Asia including amongst the many number of smaller countries such as Azerbaijan, Maldives and Macau.

Fixed broadband penetration is expected to only increase modestly in these markets over the next few years to 2021, while the growth will come from the less developed markets such as India. However penetration rates are never expected to reach the high levels seen in the mobile markets as these developing nations have typically bypassed fixed line access and moved directly to mobile access.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Market analysis and trends
  • 2. Afghanistan
    • 2.1 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 2.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 2.3 Forecasts – mobile broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 3. Azerbaijan
    • 3.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 3.2 Forecasts –mobile market – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 4. Bangladesh
    • 4.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 4.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 5. Bhutan
    • 5.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 5.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 6. Brunei Darussalam
    • 6.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 6.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 7. Cambodia
    • 7.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 7.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 8. China
    • 8.1 Forecasts broadband subscribers – 2016 - 2021
    • 8.2 Forecasts: Mobile Internet subscribers 2016-2020
  • 9. Georgia
    • 9.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2018; 2020; 2022
    • 9.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2018; 2020; 2022
  • 10. Hong Kong
    • 10.1 Forecasts – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 10.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 11. India
    • 11.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 11.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 12. Indonesia
    • 12.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 12.2 Forecasts - mobile subscirbers - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 13. Japan
    • 13.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 13.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 14. Kazakhstan
    • 14.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 14.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 15. Kyrgyzstan
    • 15.1 Forecasts – Fixed-Line Market – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 15.2 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 16. Laos
    • 16.1 Forecasts – Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 16.2 Forecasts – mobile market - 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 17. Macau
    • 17.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 17.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 18. Malaysia
    • 18.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 18.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 19. Mongolia
    • 19.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 19.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 20. Myanmar
    • 20.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 20.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 21. Nepal
    • 21.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 21.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 22. Pakistan
    • 22.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 22.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 23. Philippines
    • 23.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 23.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 24. Singapore
    • 24.1 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 25. South Korea
    • 25.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 25.2 Forecasts - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 26. Sri Lanka
    • 26.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 26.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 27. Taiwan
    • 27.1 Forecasts – Fixed Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 27.2 Forecast - LTE mobile subscribers – 2016 (actual); 2018, 2021
  • 28. Tajikistan
    • 28.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 28.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 29. Thailand
    • 29.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 29.2 Forecasts -– Mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 30. Turkmenistan
    • 30.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 30.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 31. Uzbekistan
    • 31.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • 31.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
  • 32. Vietnam
    • 32.1 Forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers – 2016 - 2018; 2021
    • 32.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 1 – Top fifteen countries in Asia by mobile penetration (penetration %) - 2016
    • Table 2 – Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 3 – Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 4 – Afghanistan - Forecast – mobile broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 5 – Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 6 – Azerbaijan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 7– Bangladesh - Forecast Fixed Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 8 – Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 9 – Bhutan - Forecast Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 10 – Bhutan - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 11 – Brunei Darussalam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 12 – Brunei Darussalam - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 13– Cambodia - Forecast Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 14 – Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 15 – China - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 16 – China - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 17 – Georgia - Forecast - fixed broadband subscribers – 2018; 2020; 2022
    • Table 18 – Georgia - Forecast – mobile subscribers – 2018; 2020; 2022
    • Table 19 – Hong Kong - Forecast – Fixed Broadband subscribers – 2012 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 20 – Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 21 – India - Forecast Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 22 – India - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 23 – Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 24 – Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 25 – Japan - broadband subscriber forecast– 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 26– Japan - mobile subscriber forecast– 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 27 – Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 28 – Kazakhstan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 29 – Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 30 – Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2010 - 2016; 2018; 2011
    • Table 31 – Laos - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 32 – Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 33 – Macau - Scenario 1 – Fibre broadband subscriber growth
    • Table 34 – Macau - Scenario 2 –Fibre broadband subscriber growth
    • Table 35 – Macau - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 36 – Malaysia - Forecast broadband subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 37 – Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 38 – Mongolia - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 39 – Mongolia - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 40 – Myanmar - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 41 – Myanmar - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 42– Nepal - Forecast Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 43 – Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 44 – Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 45 – Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 46 – Philippines - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 47 – Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 48 – Singapore - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 49 – South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 50 – South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 51 – Sri Lanka - Forecast Broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 52 – Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 53 – Taiwan - Forecast Fixed Broadband Subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 54 – Taiwan - Forecast 4G LTE mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 55 – Tajikistan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 56 – Tajikistan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 57 – Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2011-2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 58 – Thailand - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 59 – Turkmenistan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 60 – Turkmenistan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 61 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 62 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Table 63 – Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2016 - 2018; 2021
    • Table 64 – Vietnam - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Chart 1 – Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed broadband penetration rates - 2011 - 2021
    • Chart 2 - Kazakhstan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2011 - 2016; 2018; 2021
    • Chart 3 – Kyrgyzstan - Fixed line forecast – 2011 - 2021
    • Chart 4 – Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed broadband penetration rates 2010 - 2021

Related Reports

Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Internet
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 61

Status Current

Last updated 19 Jun 2017
Update History

Analyst: Phil Harpur

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