Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Publication Overview

Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Researchers:- Peter Evans, Paul Kwon
Current publication date:- January 2016 (19th Edition)

Executive Summary

As Asia moves from voice to data, subscriber growth eases

Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, this market report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments. This edition covers 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.

Malaysia - forecast - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

3.7

12.6%

3.7

12.6%

2014 (actual)

3.6

12.1%

3.6

12.1%

2015

3.4

11.3%

3.9

13.6%

2017

3.2

10.6%

4.1

13.6%

2020

2.9

8.8%

4.4

13.5%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Malaysia - forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers1

(million)

Penetration

Subscribers1 (million)

Penetration

2013

2.9

10%

2.9

10%

2014 (actual)

3.1

10%

3.1

10%

2015

3.2

10%

3.2

10%

2017

3.6

11%

4.0

12%

2020

4.2

12%

5.5

16%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Note: 1includes only fixed broadband subscribers

 

Malaysia - forecast - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

43.0

145%

43.0

145%

2014 (actual)

44.9

149%

44.9

149%

2015

45.0

150%

46.0

151%

2017

45.5

150%

50.0

154%

2020

50.0

152%

55.0

166%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Table of Contents

  • 1. Background notes relevant to our market forecasts
  • 2. Afghanistan
    • 2.1 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 2.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015;2017; 2020
    • 2.3 Forecasts – mobile broadband subscribers – 2015;2017; 2020
  • 3. Azerbaijan
    • 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 3.2 Forecasts – fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 3.3 Forecasts –mobile market – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 4. Bangladesh
    • 4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 4.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
      • 4.2.1 Scenario forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers
    • 4.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
      • 4.3.1 Scenario forecasts
  • 5. Cambodia
    • 5.1 Forecasts – Broadband services – 2015; 2020
    • 5.2 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
  • 6. China
    • 6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013-2018
    • 6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2017 - 2020
    • 6.3 Forecast: Mobile Internet subscribers 2015-2020
  • 7. Georgia
    • 7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • 7.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • 7.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
  • 8. Hong Kong
    • 8.1 Forecasts – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2016; 2020
    • 8.2 Forecast total mobile and 3G/LTE subscribers – 2016; 2020
  • 9. India
    • 9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 9.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2017: 2020
    • 9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 10. Indonesia
    • 10.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
    • 10.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
    • 10.3 Forecasts – mobile market: 2015; 2020
  • 11. Japan
    • 11.1 Forecasts – broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 11.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2018-2020
  • 12. Kazakhstan
    • 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
  • 13. Kyrgyzstan
    • 13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
  • 14. Laos
    • 14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
    • 14.2 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020
    • 14.3 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020
  • 15. Macau
    • 15.1 Forecasts – fibre broadband subscribers – 2016; 2020
  • 16. Malaysia
    • 16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 16.2 Forecasts – Fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 16.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 17. Nepal
    • 17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 17.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 18. Pakistan
    • 18.1 Forecasts – fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 18.2 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 18.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 19. Philippines
    • 19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
    • 19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
    • 19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020
  • 20. South Korea
    • 20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013 - 2015; 2018
    • 20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2013 - 2015; 2019
    • 20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2014- 2016; 2019
  • 21. Sri Lanka
    • 21.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 21.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 21.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 22. Taiwan
    • 22.1 Forecasts – FTTH subscribers – 2016; 2018; 2022
      • 22.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
      • 22.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
    • 22.2 Forecast LTE mobile subscribers – 2015 (actual); 2017, 2021
  • 23. Thailand
    • 23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • 23.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • 23.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
  • 24. Uzbekistan
    • 24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 24.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 24.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
  • 25. Vietnam
    • 25.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • 25.2 Forecasts – fixed broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 1 – Afghanistan - Forecast - fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 2 – Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 3 – Afghanistan - Forecast – mobile broadband subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 4 – Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 5 – Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 6 – Azerbaijan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 7 – Bangladesh - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 8 – Bangladesh - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 9 – Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 10 – Cambodia - Forecast fixed broadband subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
    • Table 11 – Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
    • Table 12 – China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2014; 2018
    • Table 13 – China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2014; 2018
    • Table 14 – China - Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – higher band: 2017; 2020
    • Table 15 – China - Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – lower band: 2017; 2020
    • Table 16 – China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers lower band forecast – 2015; 2020
    • Table 17 – China - Forecast Mobile Internet subscribers higher band forecast – 2015; 2020
    • Table 18 – Georgia - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 19 – Georgia - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 20 – Georgia - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 21 – Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: - 2016; 2020
    • Table 22 – Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: - 2016; 2020
    • Table 23 – Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2016; 2020
    • Table 24 – Hong Kong - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2016; 2020
    • Table 25 – India - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 26 – India - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 27 – India - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 28 – Indonesia - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 29 – Indonesia - Forecast of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 30 – Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 31 – Japan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2018; 2020
    • Table 32 – Japan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – 2018; 2020
    • Table 33 – Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 34 – Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 35 – Laos - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
    • Table 36 – Laos - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 37 – Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 38 – Macau - Scenario 1 – Higher fibre broadband subscriber growth
    • Table 39 – Macau - Scenario 2 – Lower fibre broadband subscriber growth
    • Table 40 – Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 41 – Malaysia - Forecast - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 42 – Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 43 – Nepal - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 44 – Nepal - Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 45 – Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 46 – Pakistan - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 47 – Pakistan - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 48 – Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 49 – Philippines - Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 50 – Philippines - Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 51 – Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
    • Table 52 – South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
    • Table 53 – South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2018
    • Table 54 – South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
    • Table 55 – South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2015; 2019
    • Table 56 – South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2014 - 2016; 2019
    • Table 57 – South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2014 - 2016; 2019
    • Table 58 – Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 59 – Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 60 – Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 61 – Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2016, 2018; 2022
    • Table 62 – Taiwan - Forecast FTTH broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2016, 2018; 2022
    • Table 63 – Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2017; 2021
    • Table 64 – Taiwan - Forecast LTE mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2017; 2021
    • Table 65 – Thailand - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
    • Table 66 – Thailand - Forecast fixed broadband internet subscribers and penetration – 2015; 2020
    • Table 67 – Thailand - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
    • Table 68 – Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 69 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 70 – Uzbekistan - Forecasts - mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 71 – Vietnam - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020
    • Table 72 – Vietnam - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2017; 2020

Related Reports

Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Internet
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 61

Status Current

Last updated 19 Jan 2016
Update History

Analysts: Peter Evans

Paul Kwon

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