2010 New Zealand - Telecoms and Mobile Markets

BuddeComm’s annual publication, New Zealand - Telecoms and Mobile Markets provides an overview with analysis of the mobile and telecoms sectors in the New Zealand market. We include statistics, forecasts and analysis of the mobile, VoIP and regulatory sectors of the New Zealand telecommunications markets. In the publication we also provide broad coverage on the major players in the New Zealand telecommunications markets with a snapshot of key statistical data, covering all the major telecommunications segments including Internet, broadband, mobile, telephone network and broadcasting.

Unprecedented activity is taking place in the New Zealand telecoms market. The functional separation has allowed some players in the fixed market to improve their margins and to increase their market share. All options are being kept open by these players but it is very likely that Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) consolidation will take place in 2010. Despite all of these activities and new investments the overall revenues in the market are not growing and this is putting all the players in the market under continued financial pressure.

In 2008/09 BuddeComm predicted New Zealand mobile subscriber growth rates of 5.4%. We were not far off the mark as the actual rate was only slightly lower at 4.4%. We also predicted a 6.3% growth rate in 2009/10. After revision of the markets and the regulatory changes together with the after effects of the global financial crisis (GFC), we have now revised our predictions to a slightly lower rate of annual change of 3.8%. These lower rates of annual change in a saturated mobile subscriber market will now be driven by the consumer features available in the advanced 3G network features that the incumbents are pushing and by the entry of the new operator, 2degrees.

Major players in the market

Kordia

In 2009 Kordia launched OnKor, a nationwide managed WAN service, and also KorKor, the first two-way digital radio network in New Zealand. In 2010, Kordia’s profitability hinges on the improvement in the economy of several countries where projects and ongoing services are provided.

Telecom Corporation of New Zealand

In this publication we provide an overview of Telecom’s strategic approach, products and services, business structure, and financial statistics. Telecom’s decreasing trend in mobile revenue may reverse in 2009/10 if new customers takeup the recently released 3G 850MHz XT mobile network.

Vodafone NZ

We provide an overview of the financial and operations of the company. We also provide analysis of Vodafone’s market strategy in relation to the competition from the recently arrived XT 3G mobile and 2degrees networks and the possible benefits to Vodafone from the Ultra-Fast Broadband Network.

Regulatory Environment and Spectrum

By late 2009 the monthly mobile numbers ported has more than doubled the steady rate of the last few years, due to the new mobile networks that were activated in 2009. We provide an update on the renewal of the 800/900MHz spectrum by Telecom and Vodafone and report on the spectrum swap to NZ Communications, the new mobile player now called 2degrees

Monthly porting of local and mobile numbers – 2009

(Source: BuddeComm based on TCF data)

Key highlights:

·         Revenue statistics by market segment;

·         Revenue statistics by major provider;

·         New mobile networks and operators in the marketplace in 2009;

·         Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market issues;

·         Overview of planned spectrum changes to the TV and mobile frequencies;

·         Telecommunications market size and estimates;

·         The major players, company financial information and their markets.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.