2009 Asian - Telecom Forecasts

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The reports predominantly cover the fixed line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 16 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has mainly focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

There are 16 countries for which forecasts have been prepared and presented in this report. They include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Researchers:- Peter Evans, Lisa Hulme-Jones

Current publication date:- December 2009 (15^th Edition)

Next publication date:- December 2010

Executive Summary

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Vietnam. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are for the years 2013 and 2018. All the projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Vietnam – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2013	14.5	15%	18.0	18%
2018	16.0	15%	21.0	20%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Vietnam – forecast Internet subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2013	11.5	12%	15.0	15%
2018	15.0	16%	22.5	21%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Vietnam – forecast mobile subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year	Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2013	85.0	87%	100.0	102%
2018	90.0	92%	110.0	112%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

1. Afghanistan
- 1.1 Overview
- 1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 1.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 1.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
2. Azerbaijan
- 2.1 Overview
- 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 2.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
3. Bangladesh
- 3.1 Overview
- 3.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 3.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 3.4 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2013; 2018
4. Cambodia
- 4.1 Overview
- 4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 4.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 4.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
5. China
- 5.1 Overview
- 5.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 5.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 5.4 Forecasts – broadband market – 2013; 2018
- 5.5 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
6. Georgia
- 6.1 Overview
- 6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 6.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 6.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
7. India
- 7.1 Overview
- 7.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 7.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 7.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
8. Indonesia
- 8.1 Overview
- 8.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 8.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 8.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
9. Kazakhstan
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 9.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 9.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
10. Laos
- 10.1 Overview
- 10.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 10.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 10.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
11. Nepal
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 11.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 11.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
12. Pakistan
- 12.1 Overview
- 12.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 12.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2013; 2018
- 12.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
13. Sri Lanka
- 13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 13.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 13.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
14. Thailand
- 14.1 Overview
- 14.2 Forecasts – fixed-line services – 2013; 2018
- 14.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2013; 2018
- 14.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
15. Uzbekistan
- 15.1 Overview
- 15.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 15.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 15.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
16. Vietnam
- 16.1 Overview
- 16.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
- 16.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
- 16.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
17. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 2 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 3 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 4 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 5 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2013; 2018
Table 6 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 7 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 8 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 9 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 10 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 11 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 12 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 13 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 14 – Forecast Internet subscribers and household penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 15 – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 16 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 17 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 18 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 19 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 20 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 21 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 22 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 23 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 24 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 25 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 26 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 27 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 28 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 29 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 30 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 31 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 32 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 33 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 34 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 35 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 36 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 37 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 38 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 39 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 40 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 41 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 42 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 43 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 44 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 45 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 46 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 47 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 48 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
Table 49 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018