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2009 Asian - Telecom Forecasts

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Last updated: 16 Dec 2009 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 77

Analyst: Paul Budde

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The reports predominantly cover the fixed line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 16 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has mainly focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

 

There are 16 countries for which forecasts have been prepared and presented in this report. They include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

 

Researchers:- Peter Evans, Lisa Hulme-Jones

Current publication date:- December 2009 (15th Edition)

Next publication date:- December 2010 

Executive Summary

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables.

 

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Vietnam. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are for the years 2013 and 2018. All the projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

 

Vietnam – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

14.5

15%

18.0

18%

2018

16.0

15%

21.0

20%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Vietnam – forecast Internet subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

11.5

12%

15.0

15%

2018

15.0

16%

22.5

21%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Vietnam – forecast mobile subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

85.0

87%

100.0

102%

2018

90.0

92%

110.0

112%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

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Research Methodology

BuddeComm's strategic business reports contain a combination of both primary and secondary research statistics, analyses written by our senior analysts supported by a network of experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the world as well as our own scenario forecasts.

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Research Methodology

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