2009 Asian - Telecom Forecasts

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The reports predominantly cover the fixed line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 16 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has mainly focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

 

There are 16 countries for which forecasts have been prepared and presented in this report. They include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

 

Researchers:- Peter Evans, Lisa Hulme-Jones

Current publication date:- December 2009 (15th Edition)

Next publication date:- December 2010 

Executive Summary

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables.

 

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Vietnam. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are for the years 2013 and 2018. All the projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

 

Vietnam – forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

14.5

15%

18.0

18%

2018

16.0

15%

21.0

20%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Vietnam – forecast Internet subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

11.5

12%

15.0

15%

2018

15.0

16%

22.5

21%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Vietnam – forecast mobile subscribers – 2013; 2018

Year

Lower growth scenario

Higher growth scenario

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2013

85.0

87%

100.0

102%

2018

90.0

92%

110.0

112%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Afghanistan
    • 1.1 Overview
    • 1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 1.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 1.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 2. Azerbaijan
    • 2.1 Overview
    • 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 2.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 3. Bangladesh
    • 3.1 Overview
    • 3.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 3.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 3.4 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2013; 2018
  • 4. Cambodia
    • 4.1 Overview
    • 4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 4.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 4.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
  • 5. China
    • 5.1 Overview
    • 5.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 5.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 5.4 Forecasts – broadband market – 2013; 2018
    • 5.5 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 6. Georgia
    • 6.1 Overview
    • 6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 6.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 6.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 7. India
    • 7.1 Overview
    • 7.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 7.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 7.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 8. Indonesia
    • 8.1 Overview
    • 8.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 8.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 8.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 9. Kazakhstan
    • 9.1 Overview
    • 9.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 9.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 9.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 10. Laos
    • 10.1 Overview
    • 10.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 10.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 10.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
  • 11. Nepal
    • 11.1 Overview
    • 11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 11.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 11.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 12. Pakistan
    • 12.1 Overview
    • 12.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 12.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2013; 2018
    • 12.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 13. Sri Lanka
    • 13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 13.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 13.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
  • 14. Thailand
    • 14.1 Overview
    • 14.2 Forecasts – fixed-line services – 2013; 2018
    • 14.3 Forecasts – Internet market – 2013; 2018
    • 14.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 15. Uzbekistan
    • 15.1 Overview
    • 15.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 15.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 15.4 Forecasts – mobile market – 2013; 2018
  • 16. Vietnam
    • 16.1 Overview
    • 16.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2013; 2018
    • 16.3 Forecasts – Internet services – 2013; 2018
    • 16.4 Forecasts – mobile services – 2013; 2018
  • 17. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 2 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 3 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Afghanistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 4 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 5 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2013; 2018
  • Table 6 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Azerbaijan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 7 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 8 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 9 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Bangladesh – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 10 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 11 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 12 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Cambodia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 13 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 14 – Forecast Internet subscribers and household penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 15 – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 16 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in China – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 17 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 18 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 19 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Georgia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 20 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 21 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 22 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in India – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 23 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 24 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 25 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Indonesia – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 26 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 27 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 28 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Kazakhstan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 29 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 30 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 31 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Laos – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 32 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 33 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 34 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Nepal – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 35 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 36 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 37 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Pakistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 38 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 39 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 40 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Sri Lanka – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 41 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 42 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 43 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Thailand – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 44 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 45 – Forecast Internet subscribers in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 46 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Uzbekistan – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 47 – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 48 – Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018
  • Table 49 – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration in Vietnam – 2007 - 2008; 2013; 2018

Related Reports

Purchase this Report

US$250.00

Licence Information

Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Broadband Fixed
Internet
Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Telecoms Infrastructure

Number of pages 77

Status Archived

Last updated 16 Dec 2009
Update History

Analyst: Paul Budde

Share this Report

Purchase with Confidence

As you know, I have resigned from the Labor Ministry and have decided not to re-contest the seat of Charlton at the next election – both for personal reasons.

Before leaving Parliament, I particularly wish to record my thanks to you for your generous and constructive participation in the deliberations that generated significant economic policy reforms for the Australian community. Continuous economic transformation is a key challenge that faces all Governments.

The development of sound public policy should always be contestable. Ultimately, good and equitable outcomes are not concessions to any particular interest group, but the careful balancing of interests to create the greatest possible benefit for the nation. You have contributed to that, and I sincerely thank you for it.

Greg Combet, Former Minister for Climate Change, Industry and Innovation

Special Offers

Finland - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses
US$575.00 until 24 Apr 2019
(normal price US$1,150.00)

Slovenia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses
US$575.00 until 24 Apr 2019
(normal price US$1,150.00)

Sample Reports

A selection of downloadable samples from our Annual Publications catalogue.


Download a Sample Report

More than 4,000 customers from 140 countries utilise BuddeComm Research

Are you interested in BuddeComm's Custom Research Service?

News & Views

Have the latest telecommunications industry news delivered to your inbox by subscribing to Paul's FREE weekly News & Views.