2008 Asian - Forecasts

Last updated: 9 Sep 2008 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 70

Analyst: Stephen McNamara

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. It predominantly covers the fixed-line, Internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 15 countries across Asia. It is noted that our report has focused on developing economies in the region where the main segments of the markets are still very much in their basic subscriber growth phases. The forecasts cover a range of periods with some commencing in 2006 and most forecasting ending in 2017.

Researcher:- Peter Evans

Current publication date:- September 2008 (5^th Edition)

Next publication date:- October 2009

Executive Summary

The countries covered include:

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

The report includes what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables. A set of sample tables are included below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for India to 2017. The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

India – Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2007	40	4%
2012	60	6%
2017	85	8%

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast fixed-line growth and penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2007	40	4%
2012	80	8%
2017	130	12%

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration (subscribers/1000 population)
2007	9	8
2012	26	22
2017	60	50

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast Internet subscriber growth & penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration (subscribers/1000 population)
2007	9	8
2012	50	42
2017	110	91

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast mobile growth and penetration – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2007	220	19%
2012	320	26%
2017	420	33%

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

India – Forecast mobile growth and penetration – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

Year	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2007	220	19%
2012	470	38%
2017	650	52%

(Source: BuddeComm forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Afghanistan
- 1.1 Forecast overview
- 1.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
- 1.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
- 1.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
2. Azerbaijan
- 2.1 Forecast overview
- 2.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 2.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 2.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
3. Bangladesh
- 3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
- 3.2 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
- 3.3 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
4. Cambodia
- 4.1 Forecast overview
- 4.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
- 4.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
- 4.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
5. Georgia
- 5.1 Forecast overview
- 5.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 5.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 5.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
6. Indonesia
- 6.1 Forecast overview
- 6.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 6.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 6.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
7. India
- 7.1 Forecast overview
- 7.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 7.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 7.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
8. Kazakhstan
- 8.1 Forecast overview
- 8.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 8.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 8.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
9. Laos
- 9.1 Forecast overview
- 9.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
- 9.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
- 9.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
10. Nepal
- 10.1 Forecast overview
- 10.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 10.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 10.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
11. Pakistan
- 11.1 Forecast overview
- 11.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 11.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 11.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
12. Sri Lanka
- 12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2016
- 12.2 Forecasts – Internet services to 2016
- 12.3 Forecasts – mobile market to 2016
13. Thailand
- 13.1 Forecast overview
- 13.2 Forecasts – fixed-line services to 2017
- 13.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 13.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
14. Uzbekistan
- 14.1 Forecast overview
- 14.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 14.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 14.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
15. Vietnam
- 15.1 Forecast overview
- 15.2 Forecasts – fixed-line market to 2017
- 15.3 Forecasts – Internet services to 2017
- 15.4 Forecasts – mobile market to 2017
16. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 2 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 3 – Forecast Internet growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 4 – Forecast Internet growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 5 – Forecast mobile growth in Afghanistan – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 6 – Forecast mobile growth in Afghanistan – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 7 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 8 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 9 – Forecast Internet growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 10 – Forecast Internet growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 11 – Forecast mobile growth in Azerbaijan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 12 – Forecast mobile growth in Azerbaijan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 13 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 14 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 15 – Forecast Internet growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 16 – Forecast Internet growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 17 – Forecast mobile growth in Bangladesh – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 18 – Forecast mobile growth in Bangladesh – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 19 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 20 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 21 – Forecast Internet growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 22 – Forecast Internet growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 23 – Forecast mobile growth in Cambodia – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 24 – Forecast mobile growth in Cambodia – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 25 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 26 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 27 – Forecast Internet growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 28 – Forecast Internet growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 29 – Forecast mobile growth in Georgia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 30 – Forecast mobile growth in Georgia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 31 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 32 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 33 – Forecast Internet growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 34 – Forecast Internet growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 35 – Forecast mobile growth in Indonesia – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 36 – Forecast mobile growth in Indonesia – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 37 – Forecast fixed-line growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 38 – Forecast fixed-line growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 39 – Forecast Internet growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 40 – Forecast Internet growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 41 – Forecast mobile growth in India – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 42 – Forecast mobile growth in India – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 43 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 44 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 45 – Forecast Internet growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 46 – Forecast Internet growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 47 – Forecast mobile growth in Kazakhstan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 48 – Forecast mobile growth in Kazakhstan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 49 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 50 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 51 – Forecast Internet growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 52 – Forecast Internet growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 53 – Forecast mobile growth in Laos – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 54 – Forecast mobile growth in Laos – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 55 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 56 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 57 – Forecast Internet growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 58 – Forecast Internet growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 59 – Forecast mobile growth in Nepal – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 60 – Forecast mobile growth in Nepal – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 61 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 62 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 63 – Forecast Internet growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 64 – Forecast Internet growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 65 – Forecast mobile growth in Pakistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 66 – Forecast mobile growth in Pakistan – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 67 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 68 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 69 – Forecast Internet growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 70 – Forecast Internet growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 71 – Forecast mobile growth in Sri Lanka – lower forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 72 – Forecast mobile growth in Sri Lanka – higher forecast – 2006; 2011; 2016
Table 73 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 74 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 75 – Forecast Internet growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 76 – Forecast Internet growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 77 – Forecast mobile growth in Thailand – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 78 – Forecast mobile growth in Thailand – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 79 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 80 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 81 – Forecast Internet growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 82 – Forecast Internet growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 83 – Forecast mobile growth in Uzbekistan – lower forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 84 – Forecast mobile growth in Uzbekistan – higher forecast 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 85 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 86 – Forecast fixed-line growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 87 – Forecast Internet growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 88 – Forecast Internet growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 89 – Forecast mobile growth in Vietnam – lower forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017
Table 90 – Forecast mobile growth in Vietnam – higher forecast – 2007; 2012; 2017

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