2011 Global Mobile Communications - Insights into Worldwide Developments

Publication Overview

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the global mobile communication sector. The report includes analyses, statistics and trends. The report provides valuable insight into the key trends occurring worldwide and unique regional perspectives on the markets of North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. Please note: Mobile broadband is covered in detail in a separate BuddeComm annual publication.

Subjects covered include:

  • Key Global Mobile Communication Trends;
  • Key Global Mobile Communication Statistics;
  • Key Trends in the Mobile Handset Sector;
  • Regional Mobile Communication Insights and Statistics;
  • Case Study on Vodafone Restructure.

Researchers:- Kylie Wansink, Paul Budde, Lawrence Baker, Lucia Bibolini, Peter Evans, Lisa Hulme-Jones, Paul Kwon, Henry Lancaster, Peter Lange, Stephen McNamara
Current publication date:- March 2011 (10th Edition)
Next publication date:- March 2012

Executive Summary

Mobile sector increasingly reliant on smart phone growth

The success of smart phones has changed the face of the mobile sector and in 2011 it is no longer possible to discuss this industry without acknowledging their impact. The resilience of the mobile sector under such challenging market conditions can be partly attributed to the continuing growth of smart phone sales, which now account for around 20% of all handset sales on a global level. Smart phones have become particularly popular in the developed markets where they offer a more user-friendly and interactive alternative; while this trend will continue for the near future, Asia, particularly China, will lead the growth in the developing markets.

The remarkable mobile industry also continues to grow due to the current opportunities presented by the emerging markets. Operators’ which have focused their attentions on the wireless sector, particularly in the emerging markets; have shown substantial growth compared to others which have continued focusing on saturated or fixed line markets. China and India offer much potential for future growth due to their large populations and BuddeComm predicts all of the low penetration level countries around the globe will see ongoing massive investments in cheap 2G infrastructure and cheap 2G mobile handsets for the near future. Both large carriers and private investors are showing enormous interest in the opportunities presented by these developing markets.

In contrast, with mobile penetration in most developed countries now well above 100%, opportunities to generate further growth will be limited. We are already seeing the mobile voice market declining in revenue, and this is set to continue over the next few years. Mobile broadband is of course a new growth area and it looks like it will continue to be so for the next couple of years; compensating for the decline in voice revenues in the process. However, eventually this revenue growth will also have its limitations.

The real growth that BuddeComm foresees is in the hardware sector (smart phones, tablets, etc) and in the applications. The apps market has changed beyond recognition from the content portals previously dominated by the mobile operators – which did not progress during the last decade – to a totally new industry with literally tens of thousands of new players.

The fact that Vodafone is reviewing its operations is a clear indication that changes are required to adapt to this challenging industry. This large company is struggling with falling revenue, making it increasingly difficult to acquire and retain customers as well as fund its network upgrades and ensure that it successfully bids for spectrum and licences when they become available.

BuddeComm’s new report, Global Mobile Communications – Insights into Worldwide Developments, gives the latest insights into the global mobile communication sector. It explores key issues and opportunities and provides analyses, statistics, forecasts and trends.

The report includes broad statistical information and insights into subscribers, ARPU, CAPEX, mobile revenue, mobile termination rates and roaming. It includes a unique perspective into how the mobile sector is unfolding differently around the world by incorporating regional overviews written by BuddeComm’s senior analysts.

The report also includes a case study on Vodafone which examines its current position in this challenging environment. Please note: Mobile broadband is covered in detail in a separate BuddeComm annual publication.

Examples of key insights:

  • In 2011 global telecoms CAPEX should increase due partly to investments in mobile infrastructure;
  • While mobile ARPU levels differ widely between the regions of the world, on the whole all regions have experienced declines in ARPU over the past few years – and this is set to continue in the current economic environment;
  • International roaming charges and mobile termination rates have finally begun to drop due to both competition and the introduction of regulations and price capping;
  • While the Apple iPhone is one of the most high profile of the smart phones, in 2011 the Google Android Operating System leads the iPhone in terms of global market share;
  • The success of smart phone, in particular the iPhone, is both a blessing and a curse for the mobile operators. On the one hand it has broken into the monopolistic business models used by most operators and has most certainly loosened part of their stranglehold; on the other, these phones have increased usage on their networks;
  • In 2011 there are well over 5 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide and trillions of text messages are being sent every year. As mobile phone use continues to grow in popularity; interest continues in comparing the cost of mobile service packages around the world;
  • Although mobile communications have been driving Europe’s general telecom sector in recent years, accounting for over half of the sector's revenues, it is facing a number of issues which will have considerable implications for revenue, business models and investment opportunities in coming years;
  • Mobile penetration in Africa has passed 50%;
  • Improving competition is evident in the Middle East as over half the national mobile markets are now served by three or more competing operators;
  • Asia had over 2.6 billion mobile subscribers going into 2011 and was home to eight of the top 10 mobile operators in terms of subscriber numbers in the world;
  • Mobile subscribers are continuing to rise with 3 operators in the NZ saturated market;
  • In Australia, total mobile revenue is expected to grow around 10% in 2011.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Global Mobile Market – Key Trends and Subscriber statistics
    • 1.1 Key mobile communication trends
      • 1.1.1 Mobile market insights
      • 1.1.2 Private mobile investments are transforming the world
      • 1.1.3 Smartphones – a double edged sword
      • 1.1.4 Spectrum issue – more to it than meets the eye
      • 1.1.5 Internet media companies in the mobile sector
      • 1.1.6 Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC)
      • 1.1.7 Prepaid mobile
      • 1.1.8 Number Portability (NP)
    • 1.2 Key global mobile subscriber statistics
      • 1.2.1 Mobile market summary
      • 1.2.2 Global mobile subscribers
      • 1.2.3 Top global mobile carriers
      • 1.2.4 Spotlight on selected developing markets
  • 2. Global Mobile Market – Key Financial Insights
    • 2.1 Global CAPEX, mobile revenue and ARPU trends
      • 2.1.1 Introduction: mobile competition
      • 2.1.2 Insights into mobile sector CAPEX and revenue
      • 2.1.3 Insight into global mobile ARPU
    • 2.2 Global termination rate and roaming trends
      • 2.2.1 MTR and roaming
      • 2.2.2 MTRs and LTE
      • 2.2.3 Roaming
  • 3. Global Mobile Handset Market
    • 3.1 Global mobile handset market trends
      • 3.1.1 Historical handset market growth
      • 3.1.2 Global mobile handset statistics and forecasts
      • 3.1.3 Smartphone leaders
      • 3.1.4 Other trends and developments
      • 3.1.5 Safety and security issues
    • 3.2 Spotlight on smart phones in Western Europe and South Korea
      • 3.2.1 Case study: Western Europe
      • 3.2.2 Case study: South Korea
  • 4. Case Study – Vodafone Restructure
    • 4.1 Vodafone Restructure Insights
      • 4.1.1 Company restructure – a misdirection?
      • 4.1.2 An African venture
      • 4.1.3 An Indian venture
      • 4.1.4 European revenue struggling
      • 4.1.5 Background information
  • 5. Regional Overviews
    • 5.1 North America
      • 5.1.1 Market overview
      • 5.1.2 Mobile statistics
    • 5.2 Latin America and the Caribbean
      • 5.2.1 Market overview
      • 5.2.2 Mobile Statistics
      • 5.2.3 Mobile market players
      • 5.2.4 Second generation (2G) mobile
      • 5.2.5 Third Generation (3G) mobile
      • 5.2.6 Prepaid market
      • 5.2.7 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
      • 5.2.8 Fixed Mobile Substitution (FMS) in Latin America
      • 5.2.9 Minutes of Use (MOU)
    • 5.3 Europe
      • 5.3.1 Market overview
      • 5.3.2 Investment forecasts
      • 5.3.3 Regulatory environment
      • 5.3.4 Mobile handsets
      • 5.3.5 Mobile application stores
      • 5.3.6 Major mobile operators
      • 5.3.7 Related reports
    • 5.4 Africa
      • 5.4.1 Market overview
      • 5.4.2 Mobile Statistics
      • 5.4.3 Pan-African mobile operators
      • 5.4.4 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
      • 5.4.5 Mobile number portability (MNP)
      • 5.4.6 Fixed-mobile convergence
      • 5.4.7 Mobile handsets
      • 5.4.8 Community phones
      • 5.4.9 Prepaid cards
      • 5.4.10 Call tariffs
      • 5.4.11 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
      • 5.4.12 Mobile data services
      • 5.4.13 3G and 4G (LTE)
      • 5.4.14 A major factor in Africa, however, is the price of handsets. The prepaid mass market will only adopt 3G services on a broad scale once handset prices have reached levels close to 2G handsets (see chapter  REF _Ref223190896 \r \h Mobile handsets
      • 5.4.15 Community phones
      • 5.4.16 Market forecasts
    • 5.5 Middle East
      • 5.5.1 Overview
      • 5.5.2 Mobile statistics
      • 5.5.3 Market trends
    • 5.6 Asia
      • 5.6.1 Market overview
      • 5.6.2 Regional statistics
      • 5.6.3 Regional characteristics
      • 5.6.4 China and India
      • 5.6.5 Growth drivers
      • 5.6.6 Third Generation (3G) services and beyond
    • 5.7 Pacific Region
      • 5.7.1 Australia
      • 5.7.2 New Zealand
  • 6. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Number of prepaid subscribers worldwide – 2007 - 2011
  • Table 2 – Prepaid subscribers as a percentage of total subscribers in select countries – 2008
  • Table 3 – Prepaid service revenue worldwide – 2005 - 2011
  • Table 4 – Brazil - prepaid subscribers and prepaid market share – 2002 - 2009
  • Table 5 – India - mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – June 2009
  • Table 6 – Worldwide mobile statistics at a glance – 2011
  • Table 7 – Indicative monthly mobile minutes of use – selected countries – 2008 - 2009
  • Table 8 – Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2011
  • Table 9 – Mobile subscribers by region – 1993 - 2010
  • Table 10 – Worldwide 3G subscribers – 2004 - 2011
  • Table 11 – Top ten carriers worldwide by revenue – 2010
  • Table 12 – Top 3 telecom operators worldwide by revenue growth - 2010
  • Table 13 – Top mobile operators by subscriber market share - 2010 – USA; Africa; UK; China
  • Table 14 – Worldwide MVNO subscribers – 2005; 2009; 2010; 2013
  • Table 15 – China - mobile subscribers and annual change – 1995 - 2011
  • Table 16 – India - mobile subscribers and annual change – 2006 - 2011
  • Table 17 – Middle East - 3G subscribers as a percentage of total subscribers – selected countries – 2006 - 2008
  • Table 18 – Top 3 telecom operators worldwide by revenue growth - 2010
  • Table 19 – Worldwide mobile services revenue – 2008 - 2012
  • Table 20 – Worldwide average mobile monthly ARPU – 2005 - 2011
  • Table 21 – Indicative comparison of selected European countries by monthly mobile ARPU – 2009; 2010; 2015
  • Table 22 – India - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) – 2005 - 2009
  • Table 23 – Egypt - Mobinil blended monthly ARPU and AUPU – 2002 - 2010
  • Table 24 – Blended mobile ARPU – selected carriers – Q1 2008; Q1 2009; mid 2010
  • Table 25 –Mobile termination rates by region – 2005; 2010
  • Table 26 –Mobile termination rates in select countries – 2009
  • Table 27 – Worldwide mobile roaming revenue – 2000; 2008; 2012
  • Table 28 – Worldwide overall mobile handset sales – 2004 - 2011
  • Table 29 – Worldwide overall mobile handset sales – Q3 2006 - 2010
  • Table 30 – Worldwide overall mobile handset sales by quarter – 2009 –2010
  • Table 31 – Mobile handset revenue worldwide – 2009 - 2014
  • Table 32 – Handset supplier worldwide market shares – 1999 - 2010
  • Table 33 – Worldwide smart phone mobile device sales by quarter – 2009-2010
  • Table 34 – Worldwide smartphone operating systems by market share – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 35 - Apple versus Nokia – handset division operating profit – Q3 2008 - 2009
  • Table 36 – Market shares of European handset makers – 2005 - 2009
  • Table 37 – Market shares of platforms – 2010
  • Table 38 – Vodafone blended ARPU (principal markets) - 2006 - 2010
  • Table 39 – Latin America – mobile subscribers and penetration - 1998 - 2011
  • Table 40 – Latin American mobile operators – subscribers and market share – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 41 – Latin America – América Móvil – subscribers – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 42 – Latin America – Telefónica – subscribers – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 43 – Latin America – Telecom Italia – subscribers – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 44 – Latin America – Millicom International Cellular – subscribers – 2008 - 2010
  • Table 45 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Argentina – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 46 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Brazil – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 47 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Chile – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 48 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Colombia – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 49 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Mexico – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 50 – Evolution of mobile ARPU in Venezuela – major operators – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 51 – Latin America – fixed and mobile market share - 1998 - 2011
  • Table 52 – MOU in Latin America – Telefónica and América Móvil - 2007 - 2010
  • Table 53 – European voice market in minutes – 2000; 2005; 2010
  • Table 54 – EU SIM penetration by country – 2008 - 2011
  • Table 55 – Average ARPU (€) by country in select European countries – 2006 –2010
  • Table 56 – Europe – data as a proportion of total mobile revenue –2008 - 2010
  • Table 57 – Select European Femtocell launches – 2011
  • Table 58 – UMTS penetration by select country – 2010
  • Table 59 – Europe – market shares of handset manufacturers – 2009 - 2010
  • Table 60 – Europe – camera phone sales - 2005 - 2006; 2010
  • Table 61 – Europe – mobile applications by platform – 2011
  • Table 62 – Europe – H3 revenue – 2009 - 2010
  • Table 63 – African mobile subscriber growth and penetration – 1998 - 2010
  • Table 64 – Top 10 African countries by subscribers – June 2010
  • Table 65 – Top 10 African countries by annual growth – June 2010
  • Table 66 – MTN mobile ARPU in selected African markets – 2010 (to Sep)
  • Table 1 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration in the Middle East – June 2010
  • Table 67 – Mobile subscribers in Asia – 1990; 1995; 2000 – 2012
  • Table 68 – Asia – mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration by country – June 2010
  • Table 69 – Asia – mobile subscribers by country – 2009 - 2011
  • Table 70 – Mobile subscribers and revenue by carrier in Australia – 2010
  • Table 71 – Price comparison of prepaid services by operator in New Zealand – February 2011
  • Table 72 – Network termination rates by major operator in New Zealand – 2009 - 2014
  • Chart – Worldwide mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2011
  • Chart 1 – Global smart phone mobile device sales by quarter – 2009 - 2010
  • Chart 2 –Worldwide mobile subscriber growth – 2008 - 2011
  • Chart 3 – China – mobile subscriber growth, population penetration – 2000 - 2009
  • Chart 4 – Mobile penetration rate of selected Latin American countries – March 2010
  • Chart 5 – Global overall telecoms capital expenditure – 2008 – 2011
  • Chart 6 – EU average mobile termination charges – 2004 – 2009
  • Chart 7 – Global smart phone sales by selected operating system – 2010
  • Chart 8 – Safaricom data revenue breakdown – 2009/10
  • Chart 9 – Vodafone European revenue by sector - 2009 – 2010
  • Chart 10 – Vodafone European subscribers (principal markets) - 2008 – 2010
  • Chart 11 – North American wireless subscribers and annual change – 2000 – 2010
  • Chart 12 – USA wireless subscribers and penetration – 2000 – 2010
  • Chart 13 – Canadian wireless subscribers and penetration – 2000 – 2010
  • Chart 14 – Canadian wireless operator market share – 2006; 2010
  • Chart 15 – Latin American operators market share –2010
  • Chart 16 – Proportion of prepaid mobile subscribers in Latin America's major markets
  • Chart 17 – ARPU in the major Latin American markets –2010
  • Chart 18 – Fixed and mobile subscribers in Latin America – 1998 – 2011
  • Chart 19 – Europe – mobile voice revenue as a proportion of total mobile revenue – 2007 – 2012
  • Chart 20 – Annualised European voice and data market annual growth – 2006 – 2012
  • Chart 21 – Europe – mobile and fixed voice traffic (% of total) – 2005 – 2012
  • Chart 22 – Europe – mobile and fixed voice traffic (volume) – 2005 – 2011
  • Chart 23 – Mobile price baskets by usage - EU27 – 2004 – 2009
  • Chart 24 – EU mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2004 – 2011
  • Chart 25 – Western European GSM subscribers – 2000 – 2012
  • Chart 26 – European roaming charges – 2007 – 2011
  • Chart 27 – European 3G subscribers – 2004 – 2012
  • Chart 28 – Europe – O2 Group mobile subscribers – 2005 – 2010
  • Chart 29 – Europe – O2 Group turnover and EBITDA – 2007 – 2010
  • Chart 30 – Europe – O2 Group blended monthly ARPU – 2006 – 2010
  • Chart 31 – Europe – Orange Group mobile subscribers by sector – 2005 – 2010
  • Chart 32 – Europe – Orange Group MVNO subscribers – 2005 – 2010
  • Chart 33 – Europe – Orange Group mobile revenue – 2008 – 2010
  • Chart 34 – Europe – TIM domestic mobile subscribers – 2005 – 2010
  • Chart 35 – T-Mobile subscribers in selected European countries – 2001 – 2010
  • Chart 36 – T-Mobile ARPU in selected European countries – 2006 – 2010
  • Chart 37 – Europe – H3 subscribers - 2009 – 2010
  • Chart 38 – Europe – number of network operators, resellers and MVNOs - 2000 – 2010
  • Chart 39– Mobile subscribers per operator in New Zealand – 2010 - 2011
  • Exhibit 1 – Mobile billionaires
  • Exhibit 2 – Digital Dividend
  • Exhibit 3 – FMC service examples
  • Exhibit 4 – Growth inhibitors for FMC
  • Exhibit 5 – Leading dual-mode mobile device manufacturers
  • Exhibit 6 – Growth drivers for prepaid mobiles in emerging markets
  • Exhibit 7 – Number portability: key considerations
  • Exhibit 8 – Examples of countries with mobile numbering plans
  • Exhibit 9 – Stranded telco assets cost billions
  • Exhibit 10 – Evidence of higher use by business users
  • Exhibit 11 – Historical global mobile ARPU developments
  • Exhibit 12 – BaK and CPNP payment systems
  • Exhibit 13 – Billions in revenue from replacement handsets
  • Exhibit 14 – Handset prices in decline
  • Exhibit 15 – Apple iPhone
  • Exhibit 16 – Open Handset Alliance
  • Exhibit 17 – Satellite phone
  • Exhibit 18 – European Roaming Regulation amendments –July 2009 - 2013
  • Exhibit 19 – UMTS900 commercial network operators (3G) in Europe – 2011
  • Exhibit 20 – Selected MVNOs and resellers in Europe – 2011

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Annual Publication Profile

Technologies

Mobile & Wireless Broadband and Media
Mobile Communications (voice and infrastructure)
Strategies & Analyses (Industry & Markets)

Number of pages 129

Status Archived

Last updated 14 Mar 2011
Update History

Analyst: Kylie Wansink

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