2008 Global Telecoms - Key Trends and Statistics

Publication Overview

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the trends and developments taking place in the worldwide telecoms sector. The report provides analyses of the issues surrounding the communications revolution, with a focus on the digital economy, structural separation and next generation telecoms. Information on submarine cable and fibre developments is provided as well as an overview of the global telecoms outsourcing market. Comprehensive information on the exciting developments taking place in the mobility sector is included along with statistics and forecasts for both the mobile and wireless broadband sectors. This report also provides a valuable summary of key global telecoms market statistics including subscribers to both fixed and mobile technologies, top carriers worldwide and global telecoms capital expenditure and revenues.

 

Subjects covered include:

·         The communications revolution;

·         The digital economy;

·         Next Generation Telecoms;

·         Structural separation including selected case studies;

·         Fibre developments including analyses of regulatory environment;

·         Submarine cable developments;

·         Key broadband statistics;

·         Key wireless broadband statistics and analyses;

·         Key mobile and mobile data statistics and analyses;

·         Summary of key global telecoms market statistics including capital expenditure and revenues. 

 

Researchers:- Kylie Wansink, Paul Budde, Lawrence Baker, Lucia Bibolini, Peter Evans, Phil Harpur, Lisa Hulme-Jones, Paul Kwon, Henry Lancaster, Peter Lange, Tine Lewis

Current publication date:- October 2008 (5th Edition)

Next publication date:- October 2009

Executive Summary

Around the world we are witnessing remarkable changes to the telecoms environment. After years of debate, structural separation is now taking place in many parts of the world including Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore and some European markets. Structural separation – or at least full-blown operational separation – is required to advance the entire industry and to create new business opportunities and innovations which will benefit our society, our economy and ultimately our industry. 

The focus is also shifting away from broadband to what it can actually achieve. Next Generation Telecommunications better describes this new environment and is essential for the emerging digital economy. Important services that depend on NGT include telehealth, e-education, e-business, digital media, e-government and environmental applications such as smart utility meters.  

In order to meet this burgeoning consumer demand for NGT applications, we are seeing increasing investment in All-IP Next Generation Networks and fibre networks. A proper inventory of national infrastructure assets is required if we want to establish an efficient and economically viable national broadband structure for these services. In the developing markets, next generations telecoms will take the form of wireless NGNs (ie, LTE/WiMAX).  

These are some of the elements of the broader ICT revolution that is unfolding before our very eyes. We are right in the midst of the transition from old communications structures (mainly one-way streets) to new structures that are fully-interactive and video-based. However this is not simply a technology-based development – it is bringing with it massive changes in the way we live, work and communicate. It impacts on nations and businesses as well as individuals.  

One of the drivers behind the industry changes are the declining revenues experienced by the telcos in their traditional markets. Over the past 10 years or so, fixed-line operators have been affected by deregulation, a severe industry downturn, declining prices and major inroads by mobile services. In addition, people are drifting to other forms of communication, such as email, online chat, and mobile text messaging instead of the traditional phone. 

This has also led to an increased need for bandwidth, which in turn has revived the submarine cable sector. In recent times there have been many cable build-out announcements around the world, and some major systems are again being constructed. Over 25 systems are expected to be built over the next two to three years and network upgrades are also on the agenda for some existing systems.  

The use of NGT applications is also one of the main reason governments and operators globally should concentrate on deploying FttH. Existing copper-based networks will become increasingly strained as they try to keep up, and there is a risk that these will not cope. Today it is the countries with effective and strong government policies that are forging ahead with a lively fibre footprint. Asia is the one region of the world where FttH has started to emerge as a serious broadband platform.  

It is clear that the mobile industry is also undergoing profound changes. The saturated developed markets are forcing the industry to find new revenue streams and we are now seeing other organisations such as media companies, content providers, Internet media companies and private equity companies becoming involved in this market.  

For the time being however, voice will remain the killer application for mobile with some data services included as support services and niche market services. 4G (ie, WiMAX/LTE) is the real solution for mobile data and by 2015 it is expected that the majority of mobile revenues will come from data.  

With the Internet economy, digital media and other telecommunications activities becoming further established, the need for modern and efficient infrastructure is becoming more critical. To facilitate this, the industry is again turning to outsourcing and in 2008 over $60 billion is expected to be spent worldwide by service providers on outsourced services.  

This annual report provides an insight and analyses into the trends and developments taking place in the worldwide telecoms sector. The report provides analyses of the issues surrounding the communications revolution, with a focus on the digital economy, structural separation and next generation telecoms. Information on submarine cable and fibre developments is provided as well as an overview of the global telecoms outsourcing market. Analyses of the developments in mobility are included, along with statistics and forecasts for both the mobile and wireless broadband sectors. The report also provides a valuable summary of key global telecoms market statistics including subscribers to both fixed and mobile technologies, top carriers worldwide and global telecoms capital expenditure and revenues.

 

Key highlights:

·         In 2008 the overall telecoms industry was valued at well over $3.5 trillion with steady growth ahead.

·         On a regional level, Western Europe still has the largest share of broadband subscribers worldwide.

·         DSL is the most popular broadband access technology worldwide, equating for around a 66% market share. 

Worldwide telecom statistics at a glance – mid-2008

telecom statistics

Population

6.7 billion

Fixed lines

1.3 billion

Mobile subscribers

3.5 billion

Mobile text messages sent

2.3 trillion

Internet users

1.2 billion

Fixed broadband subscribers

380 million

(Source: BuddeComm estimates)

 

·         By the end of 2008 around 18% of the global population will be online. Growth in the developing countries is still hampered by poor telephone connections, but mobile applications will assist future growth.

·         Developments in mobile communications cannot be described in any way other than being spectacular and by the end of 2008 there should be almost 4 billion mobile subscribers worldwide.

·         In 2008 it is becoming apparent that WiMAX and LTE are emerging as the most likely candidates for Next Generation Mobile Networks.

 

 

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Global Telecoms: Key Trends
    • 1.1 Next generation telecoms and digital economy
      • 1.1.1 From broadband to Next Generation Telecoms (NGT)
      • 1.1.2 The many aspects of broadband infrastructure
      • 1.1.3 Conclusions
    • 1.2 Structural separation
      • 1.2.1 Real solution is structural separation
      • 1.2.2 The great separation debate
      • 1.2.3 Key regulatory trends
      • 1.2.4 The private equity angle
      • 1.2.5 Case studies
      • 1.2.6 From vertical integration to functional organisations
      • 1.2.7 Functional telco business model from ITU
    • 1.3 The communication revolution
      • 1.3.1 The communications revolution
      • 1.3.2 Build and they will come
      • 1.3.3 The communications revolution
      • 1.3.4 Nanotechnology – towards 2050
      • 1.3.5 BuddeComm conclusions and recommendations
  • 2. Global Telecoms: Key Statistics
    • 2.1 Global telecoms market statistics and forecasts
      • 2.1.1 Global telecoms statistics at a glance
      • 2.1.2 Top carriers worldwide
      • 2.1.3 Global telecommunications capital expenditure & revenues
  • 3. Telecoms Infrastructure
    • 3.1 Next generation telecoms analyses
      • 3.1.1 Nextgen telcos – analysis
      • 3.1.2 IP and Next Generation Networks (NGN)
      • 3.1.3 Virtual Private LAN Service (VPLS)
      • 3.1.4 Fibre and next generation telecoms
      • 3.1.5 Wireless NGN
      • 3.1.6 Brief case studies
      • 3.1.7 Unified Communications (UC)
      • 3.1.8 Conclusion: end-to-end connectivity for national NGNs
    • 3.2 Submarine cables
      • 3.2.1 Introduction
      • 3.2.2 2008: the revival continues
      • 3.2.3 Historical overview
      • 3.2.4 Boom/bust cycle starting up again – brief analysis
      • 3.2.5 Demand for bandwidth grows
      • 3.2.6 Construction costs overview
    • 3.3 Telecoms outsourcing
      • 3.3.1 Historical overview
      • 3.3.2 Outsourcing
      • 3.3.3 Managed Network Services (MNS)
      • 3.3.4 Recent trends and developments
      • 3.3.5 Outsourcing market statistics
  • 4. Broadband Market
    • 4.1 Broadband statistics and forecasts
      • 4.1.1 Broadband statistics and forecasts
    • 4.2 Regulating fibre access
      • 4.2.1 Introduction: FttH deployment overview
      • 4.2.2 FttH drivers
      • 4.2.3 Case study: Europe
      • 4.2.4 FttH business models
      • 4.2.5 Structural separation
      • 4.2.6 Examples of open access
  • 5. Wireless Broadband Market
    • 5.1 Next generation mobility
      • 5.1.1 Introduction: Next Generation Mobile (NGM)
      • 5.1.2 Analysis 2008
      • 5.1.3 Personal wireless broadband
      • 5.1.4 Key developments
      • 5.1.5 Wireless broadband statistics and forecasts
      • 5.1.6 Conclusion
  • 6. Mobile Market
    • 6.1 Mobile market analysis
      • 6.1.1 Introduction
      • 6.1.2 The start of the mobile revolution?
      • 6.1.3 Mobile industry reluctantly embracing the new world
      • 6.1.4 Data is the future
      • 6.1.5 All roads lead to 4G
    • 6.2 Mobile statistics and forecasts
      • 6.2.1 Subscriber growth
      • 6.2.2 2007-2008 published statistics and forecasts
    • 6.3 Mobile data overview and analysis
      • 6.3.1 Introduction
      • 6.3.2 Service evolution from 3G to 4G
      • 6.3.3 BlackBerry
      • 6.3.4 Mobile data growth
      • 6.3.5 Key developments – 2008
  • 7. Glossary of Abbreviations
  • Table 1 – Worldwide telecom statistics at a glance – mid-2008
  • Table 2 – Worldwide growth of GSM market – 1994 - 2008
  • Table 3 – Worldwide 3G subscribers – 2001 - 2008
  • Table 4 - Worldwide wireless broadband and HSPA subscribers – 2008; 2012; 2015
  • Table 5 – Worldwide Internet users – 1990 - 2008
  • Table 6 – Worldwide DSL subscribers – 2000 - 2008
  • Table 7 – Global telecoms capital expenditure – 2008; 2013
  • Table 8 – Global telecoms revenues – 2002; 2006; 2008; 2010
  • Table 9 – IMS/LTE based services subscribers – 2007; 2011
  • Table 10 – Worldwide UC products and service market value – 2007; 2012
  • Table 11 – Annual change in international bandwidth usage – 2005 - 2007
  • Table 12 – STM-1 monthly lease price estimates – 2002 - 2006
  • Table 13 – Construction costs of submarine cables – 1997 - 2009
  • Table 14 – Investments in unrepeatered fibre optics – 2007; 2010
  • Table 15 – Worldwide telecom carrier spending on outsourced services – 2007
  • Table 16 – Number of worldwide outsourcing contracts signed – 2004 - 2008
  • Table 17 – Worldwide broadband subscribers and annual change – 2003 - 2008
  • Table 18 – Top ten countries worldwide by fixed broadband subscribers – Q1 2008
  • Table 19 – Regional share of broadband subscribers including net additions – Q3 2007
  • Table 20 – Broadband access among Internet households – select countries – 2002 - 2008
  • Table 21 – Top 8 OECD countries for broadband penetration – 2007
  • Table 22 – Broadband penetration and ranking, selected OECD countries – 2001; 2006 - 2007
  • Table 23 – Top 10 OECD countries for broadband subscribers – 2007
  • Table 24 – Old broadband (ADSL and cable) teledensity in select countries – 2007
  • Table 25 – New broadband (fibre) – household penetration top 14 countries – 2007
  • Table 26 – Worldwide broadband market share by access technology – 2006 - 2007
  • Table 27 – OECD broadband market share by access technology – 2007
  • Table 28 – OECD countries with cheapest broadband price per Mb/s – June 2007
  • Table 29 – Average broadband cost for 100Kb/s, in select countries – 2006
  • Table 30 – Fastest average broadband download speeds – top 4 OECD countries – 2007
  • Table 31 – Average broadband speeds – 36 selected countries – 2007
  • Table 32 – Number of countries with broadband speeds >256Kb/s – 2002 - 2007
  • Table 33 – Average broadband speeds by technology, OECD countries – 2007
  • Table 34 – Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s
  • Table 35 – Total fixed broadband revenues worldwide – 2006; 2010
  • Table 36 – Telecommunications services revenue share by product – 2010; 2015
  • Table 37 – Free projections – Paris fibre - 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014
  • Table 38 – Forecast fibre subscriber growth in the Netherlands - 2008 - 2011; 2017
  • Table 39 – Worldwide wireless broadband and HSPA subscribers – 2008; 2012; 2015
  • Table 40 – Worldwide WiMAX, LTE and HSPA market share – 2015
  • Table 41 – Wireless broadband and HSPA service revenue – 2010; 2015
  • Table 42 – Wireless broadband and HSPA market share in developing markets – 2008; 2015
  • Table 43 – Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change – 1993 - 2008
  • Table 44 – Top 20 countries ranked by mobile penetration – 2004 - 2005; Q2 2007
  • Table 45 – Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology – 2007; 2011
  • Table 46 – Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology – Q1 2007
  • Table 47 – Worldwide mobile phone penetration – 2008; 2011
  • Table 48 – Mobile subscriber CAGR by region – 2007 - 2011
  • Table 49 – Non-SMS monthly mobile data ARPU, selected operators – Q1 2007
  • Exhibit 1 – Vertical versus functional business models
  • Exhibit 2 – Key elements of techno-economic revolutions
  • Exhibit 3 – Starting dates of the five technology cycles of the last 200 years
  • Exhibit 4 – Effects of the mass deployment phase of communications revolution
  • Exhibit 5 – Next cycle – nanorevolution
  • Exhibit 6 – Ranked list of top 15 carriers worldwide – 2007
  • Exhibit 7 – Top 10 carriers in emerging markets by revenue – Q3 2007
  • Exhibit 8 – ITU definition of a Next Generation Network
  • Exhibit 9 – IP-based enhanced services
  • Exhibit 10 – VPN comparisons – key differentiators
  • Exhibit 11 – Definition: Indefeasible Right of Use
  • Exhibit 12 – Examples of major in-service submarine cable systems worldwide – 2008
  • Exhibit 13 – Examples of major proposed submarine cables – 2008
  • Exhibit seq Exhibit \* arabic 14 – Comparative advantages of outsourcing and insourcing
  • Exhibit 15 – Residential broadband (BB) growth predictions – next ten years
  • Exhibit 16 – Key telecommunications revenue trends – period to 2015
  • Exhibit 17 – Structural separation developments – 2008
  • Exhibit 18 – Mobile operators prefer LTE or WiMAX over UMB
  • Exhibit 19 – Personal broadband definition
  • Exhibit 20 – NGMN Alliance objectives
  • Exhibit 21 – Key applications from data pack users
  • Exhibit 22 – Definition: Personal Wireless Broadband
  • Exhibit 23 – Ranking of key mobile services & content segments by market share – 2008
  • Exhibit 24 – Why mobile marketing won’t work

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