2007 Global Broadband - Broadband is Essential Infrastructure

Last updated: 14 Jun 2007 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 146

Analyst: Stephen McNamara

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the worldwide fixed broadband industry, and includes analyses, statistics, trends and forecasts. The report also provides a market overview of the various broadband technologies, including DSL, cable modem, fibre, BPL and broadband satellite. Regional information is also included, providing a comprehensive overview of how broadband is progressing around the world.

Subjects covered include:

The current broadband market;
Worldwide and regional broadband statistics;
Broadband infrastructure analysis;
The DSL market;
The cable modem market;
FTTx market;
Broadband over Powerline (BPL) market;
Broadband satellite;
Regional information.

Executive Summary

As the Internet economy, digital media and other telecommunications activities become more established; the need for modern and efficient infrastructure is becoming more critical. Broadband services are becoming an essential commodity, and while some countries like Japan and Korea are leaders in this area, many other countries are failing to keep pace with demand.

For more information, see chapter 1, page 1.

In 2007 we see that fixed broadband is still mainly confined to the developed markets. This is because there are enough good quality fixed networks in place to allow for roll outs of the technology. There are now close to 300 million broadband subscribers worldwide, and DSL is by far the most popular access technology.

For more statistical information, see chapter 2, page 16.

At this stage other technologies, such as fibre and satellite are minor players. DSL has so far been the most effective and economical route to global broadband deployment. The emphasis of the next phase of broadband is on increasing speeds, which via ADSL2+ and VDSL will eventually lead to Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH). The market will need to focus on fibre because in the coming years the use of popular high-bandwidth applications will dramatically strain existing copper-based networks.

For more information, see chapter 3, page 26.

Asia is the one region of the world where FttH has started to emerge as a serious broadband platform. Not unexpectedly, the movement towards fibre is occurring in Asia’s more developed markets where positive government intervention has been playing an important role.

In 2007, Japan continues to lead the world in fibre deployments, and South Korea is also rapidly rolling it out. The US is also focusing on fibre, and will probably catch up to Asia over the next ten years. In Europe, deployments by municipality and property developers have shown the fastest growth, although the telcos still account for a higher proportion of lines installed. On a government level, those of Ireland, The Netherlands and Sweden have been among the more progressive FttH providers, installing extensive fibre connections to neighbourhoods or homes.

For more information, see chapter6, page 52.

The focus of Broadband over Powerline (BPL) has changed within the last year from broadband connectivity to smart meters on broadband infrastructure, which allows householders to reduce energy costs and energy companies to better manage their networks. The next step for BPL is to make the transition from the current trial status to the commercial arena, and this will require the establishment of an appropriate regulatory framework to support the technological developments that are occurring.

For more information, see chapter 7, page 61.

It is a positive sign that this sector is looking at alternatives for broadband use; beyond the usual high-speed Internet access. It is important for the overall industry to realise that Internet access will be just one of many services that will be delivered over broadband infrastructure. There are other important services emerging that will depend on high quality broadband infrastructure, such as e-health, education, e-business, digital media, e-government, smart utility meter reading, etc. In countries where the national telco is lagging behind, we are seeing that local governments have no choice other than to take a leadership role – just as they have done with similar infrastructure over the last 100 years.

Key highlights:

There will be close to 500 million broadband subscribers worldwide in 2012.
Overall telecom industry spending grew by more than 12% in 2006, driven by the demand for broadband and high-speed services.
DSL is the most common broadband access technology worldwide, capturing over 65% of the market.
VDSL and VDSL2 will provide telcos with the ability to not only offer telephony and high-speed Internet access, but also High Definition TV (HDTV), VoIP and multiple and simultaneous video streams over the same copper pair. However there are still a number of issues hindering the uptake of this technology. For more information, see chapter 5, page 45.
The cable modem sector lags behind DSL with only around 22% share of the market, however VoIP technology has provided the sector with new opportunities; evidence of this coming from North America and Europe in particular.
Worldwide cable telephony services revenue is expected to reach around $11 billion in 2007. For more information, see chapter 4.4, page 43.

Residential broadband (BB) growth predictions – next ten years

Time frame	User development	BB speeds	Key reasons
2003-2005	Early adopter	300-500Kb/s	Always-on Internet
2005-2007	Seasoned user	2Mb/s	Internet plus photos
2007-2009	BB part of life	6-10Mb/s	Triple-play/video entertainment
2010-2015	Fully-integrated BB	25-45Mb/s	Telework, education, healthcare, hobby, entertainment

(Source: BuddeComm based on industry data)

At the moment around 50% of Internet traffic is consumed by less than 5% of Internet users, however it is only a matter of time before the other 95% catch up. This will result in a wild growth of local infrastructure projects over the next five years.
To compete with fixed broadband, it is essential for reliable high-speed wireless technologies to be developed. The competing technologies include the intermediate mobile standards like GPRS, emerging 3G standards, the fixed wireless technologies such as WiFi, WiMAX and a range of proprietary services operating in 3.4GHz band.
Latin America is one of the world’s fastest growing regions in terms of broadband uptake, with an annual growth rate of around 54% in 2006. However broadband penetration at the end of 2006 was only 2.5% - considerably less than the global average of 5.4%.
The USA is one of only two countries in the OECD in which cable subscribers outnumber DSL subscribers. However DSL is expected to overtake cable in 2008, and the telcos’ massive fibre deployments will vastly improve the speeds and bandwidth of the telcos broadband networks, allowing for new services such as IPTV. The response by cable may be DOCSIS 3.0, a relatively cost-competitive, easy-to-deploy ‘wideband’ answer to the telcos’ fibre networks. For more regional information, see chapter 9, page 84.


1.	THE BROADBAND MARKET IN 2007
1.1	Analysis of the broadband market
1.1.1	Broadband fastest growing technology
1.1.2	Broadband trends
1.1.3	Wireless broadband
1.1.4	Broadband case study: South Korea
1.1.5	Market analysis
1.1.6	Users in the driver’s seat
1.1.7	Broadband infrastructure
1.2	Broadband is essential infrastructure
1.2.1	Broadband doesn’t equal high-speed Internet
1.2.2	The many aspects of broadband infrastructure
1.2.3	Cities to take charge
1.2.4	National or local infrastructure
1.2.5	The pointless technology debates
2.	STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
2.1	Broadband statistics and forecasts
2.1.1	Worldwide broadband market statistics and forecasts
2.1.2	Broadband statistics by region
2.1.3	Broadband subscribers by access technology
2.1.4	Broadband pricing – ITU
2.1.5	Broadband speeds
2.1.6	Broadband revenues
2.1.7	‘Growing broke’ with broadband
3.	INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW
3.1	Broadband infrastructure trends & developments
3.1.1	Introduction
3.1.2	Boom and bust cycle in local access
3.1.3	Electricity and broadband – a comparison
3.1.4	The costs of infrastructure
3.1.5	Network trends
3.1.6	Voice over Broadband (VoBB)
3.1.7	Regional overview 2006 – 2007
4.	CABLE MODEM INFRASTRUCTURE
4.1	Cable modems
4.1.1	Introduction
4.1.2	High-speed Internet access
4.1.3	Market developments
4.2	DOCSIS
4.2.1	History
4.2.2	DOCSIS 3.0
4.3	Regional overview – 2006 - 2007
4.3.1	Europe
4.3.2	North America
4.3.3	Latin America
4.3.4	Asia
4.3.5	Africa
4.3.6	Middle East
4.4	Cable market statistics
4.4.1	2006 cable VoIP statistics
4.4.2	2006 market statistics
4.4.3	2005 statistics
5.	XDSL INFRASTRUCTURE
5.1	Technical infrastructure
5.2	The DSL market
5.2.1	Brief market statistics
5.2.2	Questions about line quality for ADSL services
5.2.3	Versions of DSL
5.3	ADSL2/ADSL2+
5.4	Bonded DSL broadens broadband
5.5	FttH superior to ADSL+2
5.5.1	DSL TV
5.6	The VDSL market
5.6.1	Between ADSL and FttH
5.6.2	VDSL2 market overview 2007
5.6.3	VDSL2 market overview 2006
5.6.4	Business market
5.7	Competition in the local loop
5.7.1	Introduction
5.7.2	Unconditioned Local Loop Services (ULLS)
5.7.3	Definitions
5.7.4	DSL competitors need to join forces
6.	FTTX INFRASTRUCTURE
6.1	Global overview
6.1.1	Leading markets
6.1.2	Growth patterns and predictions
6.1.3	Fibre-to-the-Node and VDSL
6.2	FTTx market statistics
6.3	Regulating fibre: a global issue
6.3.1	Regulating copper networks – a lesson
6.3.2	Networks under strain
6.3.3	The stronger case for fibre
6.3.4	Regulating the fibre market
6.4	FttH drivers
6.4.1	National economy drivers
6.4.2	Social drivers
6.4.3	Entertainment drivers
6.4.4	Business drivers
6.4.5	No e-government without fibre
6.4.6	‘Go with the flow’ strategies
6.5	FttH business models
6.5.1	Vertically Integrated model
6.5.2	Open network model
6.5.3	Structural separation a must for FttH
7.	BPL INFRASTRUCTURE
7.1	Introduction
7.2	Overview
7.3	BPL SWOT analysis
7.3.1	Strengths
7.3.2	Weaknesses
7.3.3	Opportunities
7.3.4	Threats
7.4	Selecting the right business model
7.5	Utilities as telcos
7.6	Third broadband network into the home
7.7	The market in 2007 – BPL the quiet achiever
7.7.1	To better manage electricity networks
7.7.2	Looming shortage in local access capacity
7.7.3	Tackling global warming
7.7.4	BPL in developing countries
7.7.5	BPL – better than wireless
7.8	Developments in 2007
7.8.1	Requirements for BPL standard
7.8.2	OPERA to boost adoption of low cost BPL applications
7.8.3	Streetlight telecoms infrastructure
7.9	The market in 2006
7.10	Forecasting BPL
7.11	Regional opportunities
7.11.1	BPL and the environment
7.12	Difficulty in developing a global standard
7.13	Developments from the vendors
7.13.1	Introduction
7.13.2	Searching for the right models
7.13.3	Ascom
7.13.4	Panasonic
7.13.5	Philips/Intellon
7.13.6	ACN
7.13.7	DS2
7.13.8	Motorola’s BPL
8.	BROADBAND SATELLITE
8.1	Introduction
8.2	Major players
8.2.1	Mobile Satellite Services (MSS)
8.3	Satellite broadband
8.3.1	2007 – Satellite broadband losing momentum
8.3.2	2005 – Satellite broadband turned the corner
8.4	SIA – Overview of the market
8.5	IPStar – a brief case study
8.6	2006 statistics and forecasts
8.7	Geostationary, LEO, MEO and HEO satellites
8.7.1	The rise and fall of LEOs and MEOs
8.7.2	First generation GEO satellites
8.8	Direct Broadcasting Services
8.8.1	Introduction
8.8.2	Multi-feed satellite dishes
8.9	Co-ordination and regulation
9.	REGIONAL OVERVIEW
9.1	North America
9.1.1	USA
9.1.2	Canada
9.2	Latin America
9.2.1	Overview
9.2.2	Cable modems
9.2.3	Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
9.2.4	Wireless broadband
9.3	Europe
9.3.1	Western Europe
9.3.2	Eastern Europe
9.4	Africa/Middle East
9.4.1	Africa
9.4.2	Middle East
9.5	Asia
9.5.1	Asia market overview
9.5.2	Japan
9.5.3	South Korea
9.5.4	China
9.5.5	Hong Kong
9.5.6	Singapore
9.5.7	Taiwan
9.5.8	India
9.5.9	Malaysia
9.6	Pacific region
9.6.1	Australia
9.6.2	New Zealand
9.6.3	South Pacific
10.	GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 – Key starting-points for local broadbanding
Exhibit 2 – Key broadbanding steps
Exhibit 3 – Key elements of Compuware’s Service Check
Exhibit 4 – Devices supported by types of broadband
Exhibit 5 – Properties of DSL versions – 2006
Exhibit 6 - VDSL technology
Exhibit 7 – Residential broadband (BB) – growth predictions – next ten years
Exhibit 8 – Major BPL players – 2006
Exhibit 9 – Major non-USA communications satellites* – 2005
Exhibit 10 – Satellite dishes
Exhibit 11 – European DSL services - 2007
Exhibit 12 – African countries with ADSL services – 2007
Table 13 – Morocco fixed lines, Internet and ADSL subscribers & penetration rates – 2004 - 2006
Table 14 – Telkom South Africa ADSL and other Internet subscribers – 2003 - 2006
Exhibit 15 – New Zealand broadband service providers – 2007

Table 1 – South Korea – broadband Internet subscriber growth and penetration – 1998 - 2006
Table 2 – Take-up time to reach 10 million customers in mass market
Table 3 – Average broadband cost for 100Kb/s – selected countries worldwide – 2006
Table 4 – Worldwide broadband subscribers – Comparison of analysts’ forecasts – 2007 - 2012
Table 5 – Broadband access amongst Internet households – selected countries – 2001 - 2007
Table 6 – Broadband subscribers – top 10 countries – 2006
Table 7 – Broadband penetration per 100 inhabitants – top 8 OECD countries – 2006
Table 8 – Historical broadband subscribers worldwide – 2003 - 2006
Table 9 – Broadband penetration – top 5 OECD countries – 2005
Table 10 – Regional broadband households – 2004 - 2008
Table 11 - Regional broadband subscribers – 2005
Table 12 – Regional residential broadband penetration – 2005 - 2010
Table 13 – Worldwide broadband subscribers and market share by access technology – 2006
Table 14 – Worldwide DSL subscribers – 2000 - 2006
Table 15 – Market share of broadband access technologies – OECD – 2006
Table 16– Broadband penetration in OECD countries by access technology – 2006
Table 17 – Average broadband cost for 100Kb/s – selected countries – 2006
Table 18 – Number of countries with broadband speeds of more than 256Kb/s – 2002 - 2006
Table 19 – Maximum average broadband speeds – selected countries – 2006
Table 20 – Why the average home will soon require 50Mb/s
Table 21 – Residential broadband (BB) growth predictions – next ten years
Table 22 – Total broadband revenues worldwide – 2006; 2010
Table 23 – Worldwide VoBB subscribers – 2005 - 2006
Table 24 – Worldwide cable telephony subscribers – 2005 - 2006
Table 25 – Worldwide cable telephony services revenue – 2006 - 2007
Table 26 – Worldwide cable modem subscribers – 2003 - 2007
Table 27 – Worldwide cable subscribers vs other access technologies – 2006
Table 28 – Cable subscriber market share vs other broadband access technologies – OECD countries – 2006
Table 29 – Estimated FttH subscribers – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, USA, Europe – 2006 or 2007
Table 30 – Worldwide FTTx share of broadband market – 2004; 2006
Table 31 – Worldwide spending on fibre optic cables – 2006; 2010
Table 32 – Major global fixed satellite service operators – 2006
Table 33 – Number of regional/national satellite operators – 2006
Table 34 – Orbital satellite launches per year – 1996 - 2006
Table 35 – Orbital satellite launches by country – 2006
Table 36 – Cable versus DSL subscribers, market share and annual growth – 2005 - 2006
Table 37 – Latin American broadband subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – 2001 - 2006
Table 38 – Broadband subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – major Latin American countries – 2005 - 2006
Table 39 – Broadband lines and annual change, worldwide by region - 2003 - 2006
Table 40 – DSL versus cable modem worldwide - 2005 - 2006
Table 41 – Broadband subscriber ratios by technology – major Latin American countries – 2006
Table 42 – Latin American cable modem subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – 2001 - 2006
Table 43 – Cable modem subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – major Latin American countries – 2005 - 2006
Table 44 – Latin American DSL subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – 2001 - 2006
Table 45 – DSL subscribers, annual change, penetration and household penetration – major Latin American countries – 2005 - 2006
Table 46 – Average maximum broadband speeds, Germany, France, Britain - 2006
Table 47 – Telefónica O2 Czech Republic ADSL subscribers – 2003 - 2007
Table 48 – Magyar Telekom and total ADSL subscribers – 2001 - 2007
Table 49 – TPSA ADSL subscribers – 2003 - 2007
Table 50 – Slovak Telekom ADSL subscribers – residential, business, wholesale and annual change – 2005 - 2006
Table 51 – Slovenia Household ADSL penetration – 2002 - 2006
Table 52 – Israel broadband household penetration – 2001 - 2006
Table 53 – Israel broadband networks: subscribers, annual change, market share – 2005 - 2006
Table 54 – Broadband household penetration in Arabian Gulf countries – 2006
Table 55 – DSL market in Asia – 2006
Table 56 – DSL subscribers and annual change in leading Asian markets – 2005 - 2006
Table 57 – DSL subscribers in Japan – 2000 - 2007
Table 58 – DSL subscribers in South Korea – 1999 - 2007
Table 59 – DSL subscribers in China – 2000 - 2007
Table 60 – DSL subscribers in Hong Kong – 1999 - 2007
Table 61 – DSL subscribers in Singapore – 2000 - 2007
Table 62 – DSL subscribers in Taiwan – 2001 - 2007
Table 63 – DSL subscribers in India – 2001 - 2006
Table 64 – DSL subscribers in Malaysia – 2001 - 2007
Table 65 – Number of Australian households and technology penetration – 2007
Table 66 – Broadband component of Internet households – 2005 - 2010; 2015
Table 67 – New Zealand total residential broadband subscribers by major provider – 2003 - 2006
Table 68 – New Zealand annual growth of residential broadband subscribers by major provider – 2004 - 2006
Table 69 – Pacific Islands – broadband availability by access type – 2007

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