2006 USA - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband

Last updated: 10 Oct 2006 Update History

Report Status: Archived

Report Pages: 205

Analyst: Stephen McNamara

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Summary
Table Of Contents

Publication Overview

For those seeking high level strategic information and objective analysis on this region, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

Forecast growth in select telecommunication markets;
The emerging trends and convergence in US voice, broadband and digital TV sectors;
How the US is faring in terms of global broadband development and the role of the USA in the development of the Internet;
The current and emerging broadband technologies and their long-term projections;
The growth of mobile voice and data and the deployment of 3G and 4G technologies;
Key information on the major fixed-line and wireless companies.

Executive Summary

The US telecommunications markets continue to undergo significant transformation as technologies converge toward a triple play model of bundled voice, Internet and TV services.

The downward trend in landline revenues is forecast to steepen due to increasing competition from mobile and new technologies. For instance, mobile revenues are forecast to grow at over 10% CAGR over the next five years, reaching approximately $200 billion in 2010. Similarly VoIP is forecast to treble in subscriber numbers by 2010. In addition, recent substantial investments in WiMAX as a 4G platform indicate that the technology is being considered as a realistic disruptive technology.

As the cable TV companies move into the telcos’ traditional sector with VoIP services, the telcos are responding by aggressively deploying high-bandwidth fibre networks which will chart their path into the IPTV market. These fibre networks, together with the mega-mergers of SBC/AT&T, Verizon/MCI and the pending AT&T Inc/BellSouth acquisition, position the telcos to secure dominance in the broadband market. The extent to which the RBOCs can control the triple play market will depend in part on US policy towards network neutrality and on the extent to which new broadband technologies, such as BPL and WiMAX, will penetrate the market.

This report presents an overview of the telecom regulatory environment, and examines developments in the wireless sector, in the broadband market and new broadband technologies, in digital TV, Internet use and in the convergence towards triple play services.


1.	KEY STATISTICS
2.	TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET
2.1	Key developments
2.1.1	Triple play convergence
2.1.2	VoIP growth
2.1.3	Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH)
2.1.4	WiFI and WiMAX
2.1.5	Broadband over Powerline (BPL)
2.2	Regulatory environment
2.3	Landline market
2.3.1	Declining revenues
2.3.2	VoIP
2.3.3	Consolidation
2.3.4	Triple play
2.3.5	Forecasts
2.4	Mobile market
2.4.1	Mobile/wireless penetration
2.4.2	Consolidation
2.4.3	Competition
2.4.4	Prepaid
2.4.5	3G and 4G
2.4.6	Mobile TV
2.5	Internet market
2.5.1	Internet penetration
2.5.2	Internet use
2.5.3	Online sales and online advertising
2.6	Broadband market
2.6.1	Broadband penetration
2.6.2	Cable modem
2.6.3	DSL
2.6.4	FttH/FttN
2.6.5	Wireless broadband
2.7	Digital TV
2.7.1	DTV penetration
2.7.2	Cable TV
2.7.3	RBOC IPTV
2.7.4	Video downloading
3.	REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
3.1	Analysis
3.1.1	Unbundling
3.1.2	Net neutrality
3.2	Overview
3.3	Regulatory authorities
3.4	Regulatory milestones – 1969 - 2005
3.4.1	Brief historical overview
3.5	The Telecommunications Act 1996
3.5.1	Overview
3.5.2	Key pro-competitive provisions of the Telecom Act
3.5.3	Highlights of the Act
3.5.4	Results from the Act
3.6	Foreign competition
3.7	The FCC and satellite services
3.8	Merger and acquisition activity
3.9	VoIP and convergence – the new environment
3.9.1	Growth of IP telephony
3.9.2	VoIP regulation
3.9.3	Convergence and the new competitors
3.10	Access and unbundling
3.10.1	Unbundling network access
3.10.2	RBOCs ordered to share Internet lines
3.10.3	FCC unbundled network triennial review order of 2003
3.10.4	Cable broadband services confirmed as information services
3.10.5	DSL also ruled as being an information service
4.	MAJOR TELCOS – STATISTICS & ANALYSIS
4.1	RBOCs, ILECs, CLECs and IXCs
4.2	Competitive environment
4.3	Analysis
4.4	Major players
4.4.1	Overview
4.4.2	Verizon Communications
4.4.3	AT&T Inc formerly SBC Communications
4.4.4	BellSouth Corporation
4.4.5	Qwest Communications
5.	INTERNET MARKET
5.1	Analysis and forecasts
5.2	Overview
5.3	USA and international Internet statistics
5.3.1	Global leaders in Internet information
5.4	US Broadband
5.4.1	Broadband development
5.4.2	Broadband connectivity
5.4.3	Net neutrality
5.5	USA Internet usage
5.5.1	Internet usage patterns and demographics
5.5.2	Web surfing statistics
5.5.3	Web advertising and e-commerce
5.6	US ISP market
5.7	Email
5.7.1	Spam, viruses and other malware
5.7.2	Anti spam legislation
5.8	Instant Messaging (IM)
6.	VOIP MARKET
6.1	Overview and analysis
6.1.1	Overview
6.2	VoIP forecasts
6.3	VoIP statistics
6.3.1	VoIP subscribers and market share
6.3.2	VoIP awareness
6.3.3	Customer satisfaction
6.3.4	Reasons for uptake
6.4	VoIP technology in the US
6.5	VoIP government policy and FCC regulation
6.5.1	VoIP regulation
6.6	VoIP over the Internet
6.6.1	Overview
6.6.2	IP telephony gateways
6.6.3	Value-added features
6.6.4	The move to hosted VoIP solutions
6.6.5	Consumer adoption of VoIP
6.7	VoIP over IP networks
6.7.1	Overview
6.7.2	Circuit-to-packet network migration
6.7.3	IP-based private networks and computer telephony integration
6.8	Major and emerging players
6.8.1	Alternative providers
6.8.2	Major telcos
6.8.3	Cable companies
7.	BROADBAND MARKET
7.1	Cable modem and DSL
7.1.1	Key highlights
7.1.2	Broadband statistics
7.1.3	Broadband market overview
7.1.4	Regulatory overview
7.1.5	Competition between cable MSOs and RBOCs
7.1.6	Cable modems
7.1.7	Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
7.2	Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH)
7.2.1	Overview
7.2.2	FttH network rollout
7.2.3	Forecasts
7.2.4	Policy and regulation framework
7.2.5	Choice of FttX technology
7.2.6	Non-RBOC FttH networks
7.2.7	RBOC FttH roll-out
7.3	Broadband Powerline (BPL)
7.3.1	Overview
7.3.2	BPL Forecasts
7.3.3	BPL deployment issues and obstacles
7.3.4	Differences between bpl and dsl or hfc
7.3.5	BPL technology
7.3.6	BPL regulations
7.3.7	BPL deployments and trials
7.3.8	BPL industry players
7.4	Wireless broadband market
7.4.1	Overview and analysis
7.4.2	WLAN (WiFi)
7.4.3	Wireless MAN (WiMAX)
7.4.4	Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS and MMDS)
7.5	Satellite broadband
8.	CONVERGENCE
8.1	The triple play market
8.2	USA overview
8.2.1	The 1996 Telecommunications Act
8.2.2	The growth of cable
8.2.3	Telco losses
8.2.4	telco strategy
8.2.5	Triple play market predictions
8.3	Triple play in cable
8.3.1	Digital network upgrade
8.3.2	Cable TV vs DBS
8.3.3	Cable VoIP
8.3.4	Cable modem vs DSL
8.4	Triple play in wireline
8.4.1	Alliance with satellite TV
8.4.2	Fibre network roll-out
8.4.3	IPTV over fibre
8.5	Internet triple play
8.6	Wireless quadruple play
8.7	Overview of Broadcasting market
8.7.1	Analysis
8.8	Regulatory issues
8.8.1	Analogue switch-off
8.8.2	Franchise laws
8.8.3	A la carté
8.8.4	TV white spaces decision
8.9	Terrestrial FTA DTTV
8.9.1	National FTA broadcasters
8.9.2	Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT)
8.9.3	HD Over-the-Air
8.10	Cable DTV
8.10.1	Overview
8.10.2	Statistics
8.10.3	DOCSIS 3.0
8.10.4	Broadband Internet
8.10.5	Cable telephony
8.11	Satellite Direct Broadcasting Service (DBS)
8.11.1	Overview
8.11.2	DISH Network
8.11.3	DirecTV
8.11.4	GlobeCast WorldTV
8.11.5	National broadcasts of local TV
8.11.6	TiVo’s DVRs
8.12	Internet TV (IPTV)
8.12.1	IPTV technology
8.12.2	FttH/FttC/FttN networks
8.12.3	Verizon’s FiOS TV
8.12.4	AT&T’s U-Verse Video
8.12.5	BellSouth’s IPTV
8.13	Video downloading
8.13.1	Movielink
8.13.2	MovieBeam
8.13.3	AOL, Google and Yahoo!
8.13.4	CinemaNow
8.13.5	ITVN
8.13.6	Starz! & Vongo
8.13.7	YouTube
8.13.8	iPOD and MPEG-4
8.13.9	Akimbo
8.14	Consumer electronics
8.14.1	Digital TV sets and HDTVs
8.14.2	DVRs
8.14.3	Video-on-Demand (VoD)
9.	MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS
9.1	US wireless market overview
9.1.1	Market analysis
9.1.2	Forecasts
9.1.3	Market consolidation
9.1.4	Market convergence
9.2	Wireless statistics
9.2.1	Market statistics
9.2.2	Wireless carrier statistics
9.2.3	ARPU statistics
9.3	Significant market developments
9.3.1	Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market
9.3.2	Prepaid market
9.3.3	Third Generation mobile (3G)
9.3.4	WiMAX and VoIP vs 3G
9.3.5	WiFi and cellular convergence
9.3.6	Sprint/MSO joint venture
9.3.7	Mobile TV
9.3.8	Mobile music
9.3.9	Wireless Local Number Portability (WLNP)
9.4	Wireless market
9.4.1	Analysis and predictions
9.4.2	Statistics
9.4.3	Acquisitions and mergers
9.5	Major wireless operators
9.5.1	Cingular Wireless
9.5.2	Verizon Wireless
9.5.3	Sprint Nextel Corporation
9.5.4	T-Mobile USA
9.5.5	Alltel Corporation
9.5.6	US Cellular Corporation
10.	GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 – Significant telecom deregulation milestones – 1969 - 2005
Exhibit 2 – Significant consolidations – 1998 - 2006
Exhibit 3 – Implications of ending net neutrality
Exhibit 4 – Components of network convergence
Exhibit 5 – RBOC fibre optic network build out – July 2006
Exhibit 6 – AT&T U-verse timeline
Exhibit 7 – BPL fast facts
Exhibit 8 – IEEE approved WiFi standards – March 2006
Exhibit 9 – LMDS and MMDS technologies in the USA
Exhibit 10 – Evolution of RBOC triple play network capabilities per household - 2005 - 2008
Exhibit 11 – Status of RBOC FttH network build out – October 2005
Exhibit 12 – Wireless carriers and alliances with RBOCs and MSOs – November 2005
Exhibit 13 – Wireline and wireless carrier alignment – June 2006
Exhibit 14 – Selected MVNOs – 2005
Exhibit 15 – Major completed mergers and acquisitions – 2000 - 2005

Table 1 – Subscriber statistics – June 2006
Table 2 – Country statistics
Table 3 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2005
Table 4 – Telephone network statistics – 2005
Table 5 – Internet provider statistics – 2005
Table 6 – Internet user statistics – 2005
Table 7 – Broadband statistics – 2005
Table 8 – Mobile statistics – 2005
Table 9 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 10 – Telephone network statistics – 2005
Table 11 – Mobile statistics – 2005
Table 12 – Internet penetration statistics – 2005
Table 13 – Broadband statistics – 2005
Table 14 – Revenue comparisons for major telcos – 2000 - 2005
Table 15 – Verizon financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 16 – AT&T revenue summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 17 – AT&T operating statistics – 2002 - 2005
Table 18 – BellSouth revenue summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 19 – BellSouth Communications group operating statistics – 2000 - 2005
Table 20 – Qwest financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 21 – Forecast Internet penetration – low and high – 2006 - 2010; 2015
Table 22 – Forecast online retail sales – low and high – 2006 - 2010; 2015
Table 23 – Forecast online advertising – low and high – 2006 - 2010; 2015
Table 24 – Top ten ranking by country for Internet users – June 2006
Table 25 – Top ten ranking by country for Internet penetration – June 2006
Table 26 – OECD countries broadband penetration – 2001; 2005
Table 27 – US broadband penetration and ranking among 30 OECD countries – 2001 - 2005
Table 28 – Country comparison of monthly at-home Internet usage – July 2006
Table 29 – US average monthly web usage – July 2006
Table 30 – Top 10 ranking by country for number of host computers – 2004
Table 31 – US host computers, annual growth and proportion of hosts worldwide – 1994 - 2004
Table 32 – Broadband access amongst Internet households – 2001 - 2006
Table 33 – Home Internet connection speeds – 1999 - 2006
Table 34 – At work Internet connection speeds – 2000 - 2006
Table 35 – Internet users, annual change and penetration – 1996 - 2005
Table 36 – Total online searches – January 2005 - 2006
Table 37 – Internet penetration demographics – January - June 2005
Table 38 – Top 10 search engines for June 2006
Table 39 – Top ten portal websites - 2005
Table 40 – Proportion of total time spent online – June 2004 - June 2005
Table 41 – Fastest growing web sites – July 2005 - July 2006
Table 42 – Top 10 online advertisers, spending and impressions - July 2006
Table 43 – Top 10 website advertisers by parent company during July 2006
Table 44 – E-commerce spend by specific category and annual change – 2005 - 2006
Table 45 – Online retail sales and annual change – 2003 - 2006
Table 46 – ISP residential subscribers, access types, market share and annual change – April 2006
Table 47 – Annual email volume and annual change – 2000 - 2007
Table 48 – Email clients (personal email) – 2006
Table 49 – Email clients (business email) – 2006
Table 50 – Source of spam by country – 2006
Table 51 – Top 10 products pitched in spam messages – Q2 2006
Table 52 – Scenario 1 Residential VoIP subscribers – 2004 - 2010
Table 53 – Scenario 2 Residential VoIP subscribers – 2004 - 2010
Table 54 – Residential VoIP subscribers and market share – 2006
Table 55 – VoIP adoption survey among businesses – April 2005
Table 56 – Percentage of subscribers in local VoIP market – 2003 - 2004
Table 57 – Broadband subscribers, penetration and subscriber growth – Dec 1999 - 2005
Table 58 – Broadband households, subscribers and household penetration – 2000 - 2005
Table 59 – Broadband subscribers by technology – 2001 - 2005
Table 60 – High-speed lines by provider type – June 2005
Table 61 – Top cable and DSL providers, subscribers & market share – Dec 2005
Table 62 – Broadband subscribers and population penetration in selected OECD countries – 2001; 2005
Table 63 – USA broadband penetration and OECD ranking – 2001 - 2005
Table 64 – Broadband penetration in Internet households, selected countries – 2001 - 2006
Table 65 – US cable modem subscribers and annual change – 1998 - 2005
Table 66 – Subscribers for top cable modem providers – 2002 - 2005
Table 67 – US cable industry infrastructure expenditures – 2000 - 2005
Table 68 – Top 10 cable MSOs, coverage, subscribers, penetration – June 2005
Table 69 – Analogue, digital, cable broadband subscribers and annual change by operator – 2004 - 2005
Table 70 – Cable VoIP subscribers and annual change – 2003 - 2008
Table 71 – DSL subscribers and annual change – 1999 - 2005
Table 72 – US DSL subscribers by major carrier – 2002 - 2005
Table 73 – ADSL subscribers, proportion of lines and annual increase by type of provider – June 2005
Table 74 – Cable vs DSL subscribers, market share and subscriber growth – 2004 - 2005
Table 75 – FttH homes passed and connected – 2001 - 2006
Table 76 – FttH communities and states – 2004 - 2006
Table 77 – Projected rollout of FttH, FttC and FttN networks (2006 - 2010): Scenario 1
Table 78 – Projected rollout of FttH, FttC and FttN networks (2006 - 2010): Scenario 2
Table 79 – RBOC, CLEC, ILEC and Muni FttH communities – May 2006
Table 80 – Non-RBOC and overall FttH take-up rates – 2002 - 2005
Table 81 – Number of Hotspots in the top 10 US States – April 2006
Table 82 – Public WiFi hotspots – top 10 countries, cities and location types – April 2006
Table 83 – Top seven US WiFi hotspot operators – April 2005
Table 84 – Municipal WiFi deployments – 2005 - 2006
Table 85 – Comparison of WiMAX and 3G UMTS
Table 86 – Costs of spectrum and equipment – WiMAX versus LMDS
Table 87 – Estimated US revenue from WiMAX infrastructure – 2005 - 2008
Table 88 – Top 10 Wireless ISPs – April 2006
Table 89 – Triple Play households – 2005; 2010; 2015
Table 90 – US cable industry infrastructure expenditures – 2000 - 2005
Table 91 – US analogue, digital cable and cable broadband subscribers and annual change – 2001 - 2005
Table 92 – Analogue, digital cable and cable broadband subscribers and annual change by operator – 2004 - 2005
Table 93 – Cable and DBS share of the pay TV market – 2000 - 2005
Table 94 – Cable VoIP uptake and annual change – 2003 - 2008
Table 95 – Broadband subscribers, market share and growth – cable versus DSL – 2004 - 2005
Table 96 – Projected rollout of fibre networks (FttH and FttN) – 2005 - 2010
Table 97 – Broadcasting coverage and subscribers, penetration and annual change – 2006
Table 98 – Market shares of major MSO and DBS providers – 2005
Table 99 – US HDTV adoption forecast – 2008
Table 100 – Homes passed by cable HDTV service and annual change – 2002 - 2006
Table 101 – National FTA broadcasters – 2006
Table 102 – CAPEX in cable infrastructure upgrades – 1996 - 2005
Table 103 – Cable broadband availability, DTV & broadband subscribers – 1999 - 2006
Table 104 – Cable MSOs ranked by subscribers & market share – March 2006
Table 105 – Cable MSOs’ modem subscribers – 2002 - 2005
Table 106 – Cable MSOs’ residential VoIP market shares – 2006
Table 107 – DBS v MSO market shares – 2001 - 2005
Table 108 – Satellite DBS subscribers by major network – 2000 - 2005
Table 109 – DBS/RBOC partnership customer gains – 2004 - 2006
Table 110 – Digital TV sets and display sales – 1999 - 2005
Table 111 – US cable DVR capable households and annual change – 2004 - 2009
Table 112 – DVR sales – 2001 - 2006
Table 113 – US cable VoD-capable households and annual change – 2004 - 2009
Table 114 – Wireless market statistics and annual change – December 2005
Table 115 – Wireless subscriber growth and annual change – 1995 - 2005
Table 116 – Wireless market revenue, roamer revenue, ARPU and employees – 1994 - 2005
Table 117 – Number of cell sites – 1994 - 2005
Table 118 – Wireless customers by operator – 2002 - 2006
Table 119 – Wireless operator subscriber market share and annual change – March 2006
Table 120 – ARPU of selected operators and annual change – Q1 2006
Table 121 – Customer churn of national carriers – 2001 - 2005
Table 122 – Average local monthly bill & average local call length – 1995 - 2005
Table 123 – Prepaid subscriber growth – 2004 - 2005
Table 124 – Major operators prepaid share – Q1 2006
Table 125 – 3G market share – March 2006
Table 126 – Comparison of WiMAX / 3G Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS)
Table 127 – Wireless revenue comparisons for major carriers – 2000 - 2005
Table 128 – Wireless customer comparisons – 2002 - 2006
Table 129 – Wireless operator market share – March 2006
Table 130 – Major acquisition and merger agreements – 1998 - 2005
Table 131 – Cingular Wireless financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 132 – Cingular Wireless operating data – 2000 - 2005
Table 133 – Verizon Communications revenue – 2000 - 2005
Table 134 – Verizon Wireless operating data – 2001 - 2005
Table 135 – Sprint Nextel financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 136 – Sprint Nextel wireless segment operating data – 2001 - 2005
Table 137 – T-Mobile revenue – 2000 - 2005
Table 138 – T-Mobile operating statistics – 2001 - 2005
Table 139 – Alltel financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 140 – Alltel wireless operating statistics – 2000 - 2005
Table 141 – US Cellular financial summary – 2000 - 2005
Table 142 – US Cellular operating statistics – 2000 - 2005

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