Virus impact over each market - telecom operators, government agencies and regulators' responses - revised forecasts for the next 5 years.
Haiti’s economic and social indicators remain far lower than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean. The recent years of political and economic turmoil and natural disasters, most recently Hurricane Matthew which hit the island in August 2016, have stifled most sectors of the economy, including the telecoms sector which remains one of the least developed in the world. The regulator reported that Hurricane Matthew caused about $35 million in damage to equipment owned by Natcom, Digicel and Access Haiti.
In the internet market, poor fixed-line infrastructure obliged most businesses to rely on satellite and wireless technologies. However, the launch of services by Natcom in late 2011 has provided a significant boost to the sector. The company in subsequent years built three international gateways and quadrupled international connectivity. As a result, broadband services are much more readily available, and Natcom has become a wholesale provider for the small number of other ISPs in the market. Nevertheless, there remain significant barriers to fixed-line broadband development, not least of which is the low income level among most of the population, low PC penetration and the perennial problem of equipment theft. Although Natcom has built a fibre backbone running to dome 6,500km, which is steadily growing fixed-line broadband sector, practical challenges mean that for the majority people and businesses connectivity is achieved through mobile networks.
Natcom also introduced a competitive boost to the mobile sector in 2011, though this was set back to some degree by the Digicel Group’s acquisition of the number two player Voilà, and the integration of the latter’s mobile network in late 2012. With the collapse of the third operator HaiTel in mid-2013, this left Digicel with about 74% market share of subscribers. Nevertheless, the economies of scale together with Digicel’s interest in promoting LTE as well as innovative mobile data services such as mobile banking should considerably improve internet connectivity in rural areas in coming years and enable communities to make greater use of internet services where fixed-line infrastructure remains inadequate.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
Natcom, HaiTel, Digicel, Rectel, Comcel, Teleco.
Paul, May I congratulate you on a very successful and enjoyable afternoon with the Minister. In providing the roundtable discussions between government and industry, it highlighted the strong interest by stakeholders in Broadband and its implementation but it also presented us with other issues and opportunities that we need to address.
Dominic Schipano, CITT
BuddeComm's strategic business reports contain a combination of both primary and secondary research statistics, analyses written by our senior analysts supported by a network of experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the world as well as our own scenario forecasts.
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