Australia - Fixed Broadband Market - Insights, Statistics and Analyses

Publication Overview

This report reviews a range of statistics and trends in the Australian fixed broadband market, including market share for major fixed broadband providers, market share by major broadband category (DSL, Cable, Fibre, Satellite and Fixed wireless) and market forecasts to 2023. The report examines how there is a shift towards FTTH, FTTN and FTTP networks as Australia’s nbn is progressively rolled out and how the market will move away from DSL. It will show how HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided within the nbn’s multi-technology mix.

The report also incorporates key statistics for the rollout of Australia’s NBN.

The report also analyses the drivers behind broadband adoption within the Australian residential and business sectors and notes the shift to a market more dominated by mobile devices.

It provides an overview of fibre operators, as well as statistics on the FTTP market and a review of developments related to DSL and HFC infrastructure as well as satellite broadband.

Researchers:- Phil Harpur
Current publication date:- November 2018 (17th Edition)

Executive Summary

The DSL market shrinks as the NBN is further rolled out

Within the Australian fixed broadband market, there is a dynamic shift among customers to fibre networks, as this infrastructure is being built out by nbn (NBN Co), the company responsible for the national broadband deployment. Australia’s broadband sector is making improved progress in its migration to a multi-technology National Broadband Network (NBN).

Australia’s NBN is delivered via a multi-technology mix (MTM) to homes and businesses including: fibre to the premises (FTTP), fibre to the building (FTTB), fibre to the node (FTTN), Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC), fixed wireless and satellite.

The purpose of the company nbn is to build a nationwide, wholesale-only, high-speed, affordable open broadband network. NBN Co was rebranded as nbn, the company overseeing Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) project. As it does not provide telecommunications services to retail customers, the market opened up existing and new licensed RSPs (Retail Service Providers).

The NBN will increase Australia’s GDP by up to $10 billion and create up to 150,000 new jobs nationally in the digital industry by 2021. The establishment of businesses in areas served by the NBN so far grew at twice the rate of the national average and five times the pace of regions without the network.

NBN Co announced plans in 2018 to be able to more efficiently deploy fibre to the curb (FTTC) services instead of its more conventional DSLAM-based fibre to the basement (FTTB) services when connecting smaller multi-dwelling units (MDUs).

The annual growth rate in the overall number of broadband subscribers is expected to continue to slow into 2019, with most growth coming from the mobile wireless and fibre broadband markets, due to increased uptake by the nbn is these two segments.

The DSL sector is expected to shrink as customers are migrated to the NBN in areas where services become available, while subscribers on HFC infrastructure will continue to be provided by existing cable within the NBN’s multi-technology mix. Commercial cable services based on the DOCSIS3.1 standard are anticipated in 2018-19.

The DSL sector is still showing resilience as operators make greater use of VDSL, while nbn has trialled G.Fast technology and expects to provide services shortly.

The fixed-line broadband market continues to grow steadily as the nbn rollout gains momentum, although overall penetration is predicted to grow slowly over the next five years to 2023.

Internationally, the adoption of broadband ranks Australia below many other developed countries, however the Australian market has seen a moderate increase over the past two years due to the continued rollout of the nbn.

Consolidation within the broadband market, with some key acquisitions having taken place among fixed broadband service providers, will provide greater reach and scale for operators in coming years.

The industry has started to seriously question the regulatory environment around the NBN. The smaller players believe they are in danger of being squeezed out of the market through complex and expensive NBN wholesale offerings. These same arrangements also mean that the end-users are not receiving the benefits of high-speed broadband in an affordable form.

NBN Co has revealed plans to begin deploying “skinny fibre” (thinner fibre cables) in new housing estates from 2017-2018.

The National Broadband Network announced it would entirely abandon its plan to use the Optus Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) network to deliver high-speed broadband. NBN will however still be using Telstra’s more extensive HFC network as planned.

Key Developments

  • NBN Co deploy fibre to the curb (FTTC) services instead of DSLAM-based fibre.
  • NBN Co will deploy “skinny fibre” (thinner fibre cables)
  • The NBN will increase Australia’s GDP by up to $10 billion.
  • The DSL sector is expected to shrink as customers are migrated to the NBN.
  • Consolidation within the fixed broadband market has occurred over the past few years.
  • The annual growth rate in the fixed broadband market is expected to continue to slow over the next five years to 2023.

Key companies mentioned in this report:

NBN; Austar; Ericsson; Visionstream; Optus, iiNet, AUSTAR, Foxtel, Neighbourhood Cable, TransACT. Optus, Telstra, nbn (NBN Co), LBNCo, OPENetworks, OptiComm, RedTrain, Pivit, Fibercorp

Phil Harpur

November 2018

Table of Contents

  • Fixed broadband market – overview and statistics

    • Market analysis
    • National Broadband Network (NBN)
    • Fixed broadband market consolidation
    • Fixed broadband – subscriber statistics and forecasts
      • Total market statistics
      • Market share statistics by platform
      • Market share statistics by provider
      • Internet usage trends
      • Household usage survey - 2018
      • Fixed broadband subscriber Forecast
    • Other broadband statistics
      • Broadband speeds
      • Broadband traffic
    • Australian business broadband market
    • DSL infrastructure
    • WiFi market
      • Introduction
      • Venue WiFi - Campuses, hotels, public areas
      • Telstra Air - National WiFi network
      • Optus
      • State projects
      • City and regional projects
      • WiFi in Airlines
  • National broadband network

    • Overview
    • Corporate plan - 2019-2022
    • Wholesale provider overview
    • Market analysis
    • Regional improvements
    • NBN Market statistics
      • Revenue Statistics
      • Subscriptions
      • Broadband market share by provider
    • Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP)
      • Statistics
      • Major players
      • Historical developments
      • Greenfield estates
    • Fibre-to-the-Basement (FTTB)
    • Fibre-to-the-Node (FTTN)
    • Fibre-to-the-Curb (FTTC)
    • G.Fast and XG.Fast
    • HFC (Cable) Networks
      • Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) - Technology
      • HFC – NBN Developments
      • NBN statistics
      • Operator statistics
      • HFC operators
    • Fixed wireless networks
      • Overview
      • Network rollout
      • Market analysis
      • Fixed wireless statistics
    • The NBN satellite network
      • SKY MUSTER
      • Ka-band satellites
      • Contracts
      • Telstra
      • Viasat
  • Fixed broadband service providers

    • Telstra
      • Company overview
      • Financial and operating statistics
      • Strategy update – 2018
      • Company analysis - 2017
      • Strategy update - 2016
      • Network upgrade
    • Optus
      • Company overview
      • Company analysis
      • Financial and operating statistics
      • Infrastructure overview
      • Products and services
      • Major subsidiaries
    • TPG Telecom Limited
      • Company overview
      • Company analysis
      • Company acquisitions
      • Company investments
      • TPG to become the fourth mobile operator in Singapore
      • Fibre network
      • National network
      • Financial statistics
      • Operational statistics
    • Vocus
      • Overview
      • Company strategy update – late 2017
      • Company analysis
      • Financial results
      • Operations results
      • Acquisitions / Mergers
      • Network
      • Products and services
    • Macquarie Telecom
      • Company overview
      • Financial results
    • Vodafone
      • Fixed line NBN offering

List of Tables

  • Table 1 – Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market – 2008 – 2017
  • Table 2 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 3 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, annual growth – 2012 – 2018
  • Table 4 – Total broadband subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless, market share – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 5 – Historic - Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 – 2011
  • Table 6 – Total broadband subscribers by access type – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 7 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, annual growth – 2012 – 2018
  • Table 8 – Total broadband subscribers by access type, market share – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 9 – Fixed broadband subscribers – DSL, Cable, Fibre – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 10 – Historic - Broadband market share by technology – 2008 – 2015
  • Table 11 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers (thousands) by major provider – 2010 – 2018
  • Table 12 – Fixed broadband retail subscriber annual growth by major provider – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 13 – Fixed broadband retail subscribers market share by major provider – 2014 – 2018
  • Table 14 – Historic - Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 – 2014
  • Table 15 – Telstra broadband subscribers by retail / wholesale – 2007 – 2018
  • Table 16 – Accessing the Internet by Service, Usage Patterns – 2013; 2017
  • Table 17 – Fixed broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) – 2010 – 2023
  • Table 18 – Subscribers’ average broadband speed – 2010 – 2017
  • Table 19 – Average SVoD streaming speed by broadband service provider (Mb/s) – 2015 – 2017
  • Table 20 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2016 – 2018
  • Table 21 – Historic – Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 – 2015
  • Table 22 – Historic – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2008 – 2015
  • Table 23 – Volume of data downloaded (Terrabytes) by access connection – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 24 – Historic – Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology – 2008 – 2016
  • Table 25 – Historic – Annual change in data downloaded by access technology – 2011 – 2016
  • Table 26 – Historic – Average data downloaded per subscriber (fixed-line and mobile) – 2013 – 2016
  • Table 27 – DSL broadband subscribers – 2008 – 2018
  • Table 28 – NBN revenue ($million) statistics – 2013 - 2018
  • Table 29 – NBN ARPU – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 30 – NBN capital expenditure – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 31 – Cost per premises – 2014 -2017
  • Table 32 – Historic – Property, plan, equipment and intangible assets
  • Table 33 – NBN premises activated, Ready for Service (thousands) – 2011 – 2018
  • Table 34 – Cumulative end user subscriptions by technology – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 35 – Market share – subscriptions – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 36 – Cumulative premises Ready For Service – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 37 – Historic – Market share premises Ready For Service – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 38 – Fixed Line Speed Tier Mix – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 39 – Fixed Wireless Speed Tier Mix – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 40 – Sky Muster satellite service speed tier mix – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 41 – NBN premises activated by platform – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 42 – NBN premises serviceable by platform – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 43 – Historic – NBN premises activated by platform – 2014 – 2016
  • Table 44 – Historic – NBN fibre premises serviceable by type – 2012 – 2016
  • Table 45 – Historic – NBN fibre premises activated – 2011 – 2016
  • Table 46 – FTTP – Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 47 – FTTB -- Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 48 – FTTN– Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 49 – HFC – Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 50 – Wireless – Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 51 – Satellite – Market Share – by Provider – June 2018
  • Table 52 – NBN revenue statistics FTTP / FTTP– FY 2013 – 2017
  • Table 53 – FTTP subscriber statistics – 2013 – 2018
  • Table 54 – Annual FTTP / FTTP capital expenditure – FY 2013 – 2017
  • Table 55 – FTTP Cost per premise – FY 2014-2016
  • Table 56 – FTTP Greenfields rollouts 2014 – 2016
  • Table 57 – FTTP Greenfields Rollouts 2014 – 2016
  • Table 58 – FttN expenditure – 2014 – 2016
  • Table 59 – HFC Roll out plan 2016 – 2018
  • Table 60 – HFC Current Roll out status – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 61 – Weighted average cost per HFC premise (rounded nearest $100)
  • Table 62 – NBN capital expenditure – FY2015 – 2017
  • Table 63 – HFC– Market Share – by Provider – June 2017
  • Table 64 – Cable broadband subscribers by major operator and annual change – 2002 – 2018
  • Table 65 – Optus on-net broadband subscribers – 2009 – 2018
  • Table 66 – NBN Cost per premises fixed wireless – FY 2014 – 2017
  • Table 67 – FTTH Wireless Rollouts FY 2014 – 2017
  • Table 68 – NBN Capital expenditure fixed wireless – FY 2013 – 2017
  • Table 69 – NBN ARPU Fixed wireless – FY 2014-2016
  • Table 70 – Satellite Rollouts 2014 – 2016
  • Table 71 – Telstra Group – Top Line Annual Financial Results – 2005 – 2017
  • Table 72 – Telstra Group – Revenue ($billion) by Product Segment and Annual Change – 2015 – 2017
  • Table 73 – Telstra Group - Revenue ($billion) by Operations Segment and Annual Change – 2015 – 2017
  • Table 74 – Telstra Group – Mobile Handset ARPU by prepaid, postpaid– 2016 – 2017
  • Table 75 – Telstra Group – Capital Expenditure – 2009 – 2017
  • Table 76 – Telstra – Mobile subscribers (millions) by prepaid, postpaid – 2008 – 2017
  • Table 77 – Telstra broadband subscribers by sector – 2007 – 2016
  • Table 78 – Overview of Optus overall operating revenue summary – 2000 – 2018
  • Table 79 – Optus revenue – 2012 – 2018
  • Table 80 – Optus Group – Financial Results - Division – 2014 – 2018
  • Table 81 – Optus – Key Operating Statistics - 2015 – 2018
  • Table 82 – Historic – Optus consumer and business fixed telephony statistics – 2009 – 2017
  • Table 83 – Historic – Total internet subscribers (broadband and dialup) – 1996; 1998; 2000 – 2008
  • Table 84 – iiNet’s acquisitions – 2003 – 2014
  • Table 85 – TPG Revenue, EBITDA and NPAT– 2001 – 2017
  • Table 86 – TPG – revenue ($ million) breakdown by division – 2009 – 2017
  • Table 87 – TPG – consumer segment revenue ($ million) – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 88 – TPG – corporate segment revenue ($ million) – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 89 – TPG – Broadband ARPU ($/month) – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 90 – iiNet – Broadband ARPU ($/month) – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 91 – TPG consumer – revenue breakdown by market segment (consumer) – 2010 – 2016
  • Table 92 – TPG – Revenue by Division – 2016
  • Table 93 – Historic - TPG – broadband ARPU – 2009 – 2016
  • Table 94 – TPG – Group Broadband Subscribers (thousands) by Division– 2014 – 2017
  • Table 95 – TPG – Consumer Broadband Subscribers (thousands) by Product – 2014 – 2017
  • Table 96 – iiNet – Broadband Subscribers (thousands) by Product – 2015 – 2017
  • Table 97 – TPG – Group Mobile Subscribers (thousands) by Division– 2014 – 2017
  • Table 98 – iiNet Fixed Voice – subscribers and ARPU – 2015 – 2017
  • Table 99 – Historic - TPG Group – Total Subscribers, Mobile Subscribers – Jan 2016
  • Table 100 – Historic - TPG (only) – broadband subscribers on/off-net and bundled – 2008 – 2016
  • Table 101 – Historic - TPG on-net versus Soul off-net home phone subscribers, annual change – 2009
  • Table 102 – Historic - TPG versus Soul mobile subscribers – 2008 – 2015
  • Table 103 – Vocus - key financial parameters – 2012- 2017
  • Table 104 – Vocus – Revenue Split by Division – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 105 – Vocus – Revenue Split by Product – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 106 – Vocus Australia - Consumer Broadband Subscribers – 2016 – 2017
  • Table 107 – M2’s acquisitions – 2005 – 2015
  • Table 108 – Macquarie key financial indicators – 2008 – 2017
  • Table 109 –Macquarie revenue by division- revenue $ (million)– 2015 – 2017

List of Charts

  • Chart 1 – Total broadband Subscribers – Fixed vs Wireless – 2011 – 2018
  • Chart 2 – Fixed broadband subscribers –DSL, Cable, Fibre – 2011 – 2018
  • Chart 3 – Accessing the Internet by Service, Usage Patterns – 2013; 2017
  • Chart 4 – Device used to go online – 2013; 2017
  • Chart 5 – Fixed broadband Subscribers (with Forecast) – 2010 – 2023
  • Chart 6 – Overall Optus overall operating revenue and annual change – 2000 – 2018

List of Exhibits

  • Exhibit 1 – TPG – Competitive Analysis Profile – Highlights
  • Exhibit 2 – TPG – Competitive Analysis Profile

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Number of pages 183

Status Current

Last updated 12 Nov 2018
Update History

Lead Analyst: Phil Harpur

Contributing Analysts:

Paul Budde

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