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United Kingdom - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

The UK has one of the largest mobile markets in Europe, both in revenue and in the number of subscribers. It is served by four major providers – following the significant merger of Orange and T-Mobile – which have all launched 3G services, as well as by a growing number of low-cost MVNOs. The market is characterised by new developments in advanced data services provided over upgraded networks, the bundling of mobile as a quad-play service, and regulatory controls on charges and fees. Mobile penetration is above the EU average, yet subscriber growth remains strong as consumers adopt additional SIMs as well as business-oriented devices and smartphones on various platforms.

Fierce competition has forced operators to concentrate on packaging service bundles and on promotions, and explore applications such as mobile searching and advertising facilities. ARPU has been falling steadily for all operators, with growing mobile data use offsetting lower voice, interconnection and roaming tariffs. The market can expect considerable changes during the next two years as operators prepare their business plans to accommodate spectrum auctions in 2012 and adjust to the refarming of 2G spectrum for 3G and 4G use. This report surveys the UK’s mobile market, providing an overview of mobile statistics, regulatory issues and technologies. It also profiles the major operators and MVNOs, and looks ahead to mobile developments in coming years.

Key developments

Vodafone sells 5.5% stake in Indian division Essar and 44% stake in SFR; EE reports fall in service revenue; Vodafone restructures European operations; China Telecom launches MVNO service; H3 signs five-year managed services contract with Huawei; 4G auction in 2.6GHz and 800MHz bands delivers £2.34 billion; Vodafone posts 7% drop in revenue for 2012, signs partnership with Zain to expand presence in Middle East; regular’s market report for 2011 and updates to Q1 2012; telcos’ financial and operating data to end-2012; market developments to March 2013.

Companies covered in this report include:

H3UK, Vodafone, O2, Everything Everywhere (EE, incorporating T-Mobile and Orange), Virgin Mobile, Tesco mobile,

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Overview of the UK’s mobile market
    • 2.1 Mobile statistics
    • 2.2 Operator market shares
  • 3. Regulatory issues
    • 3.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
    • 3.2 Spectrum refarming
      • 3.2.1 800MHz and 2.6GHz
      • 3.2.2 1800MHz
    • 3.3 Roaming
    • 3.4 Number portability
    • 3.5 Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
  • 4. Major mobile operators
    • 4.1 Hutchison 3
    • 4.2 O2
    • 4.3 Vodafone
      • 4.3.1 Sales and acquisitions
      • 4.3.2 Company restructure
    • 4.4 EE
      • 4.4.1 T-Mobile
      • 4.4.2 Orange
    • 4.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
      • 4.5.1 Operators
      • 4.5.2 Mobile Virtual Network Aggregators (MVNAs)
  • 5. Mobile voice services
    • 5.1 Prepaid cards
  • 6. Forecasts
    • 6.1 Forecasts – mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2010; 2015; 2020
    • 6.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers and penetration – 2010 - 2016
    • 6.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
  • 7. Related reports
  • Table 1 – Call volumes, fixed-line and mobile in minutes – 2003 - 2013
  • Table 2 – Mobile call revenue by operator – 2002 - 2010
  • Table 3 – Mobile retail revenue by service – 2002 - 2012
  • Table 4 – Mobile revenue as proportion of total – 2002 - 2013
  • Table 5 – Mobile subscriber market share by technology: 2G and 3G – 2004 - 2013
  • Table 6 – Mobile handset sales – 2005 - 2012
  • Table 7 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2013
  • Table 8 – Mobile subscribers by type – 2005 - 2012
  • Table 9 – Percentages of mobile and fixed phones in homes – 2000 - 2012
  • Table 10 – Total mobile retail revenue – 2009 - 2013
  • Table 11 – Mobile ARPU by use (data, SMS, voice) – 2005 - 2010
  • Table 12 – Mobile ARPU by contract, prepaid – 2006 - 2012
  • Table 13 – Average retail revenue by subscribers, operator – Q4 2008 - Q4 2010
  • Table 14 – Mobile market share by operator – 2004 - 2011
  • Table 15 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2011
  • Table 16 – MTRs by operator (pence per minute) – 2010 - 2015
  • Table 17 – 3 UK subscribers by sector – 2008 - 2012
  • Table 18 – 3 UK financial data – 2008 - 2012
  • Table 19 – 3 UK annualised ARPU by sector – 2009 - 2012
  • Table 20 – 3 UK data as proportion total revenue – 2009 - 2011
  • Table 21 – O2 financial data –2007 - 2012
  • Table 22 – O2 quarterly ARPU – blended, contract, prepaid and data – 2006 - 2012
  • Table 23 – O2 proportion of data to total revenue – 2006 - 2012
  • Table 24 – O2 subscribers, prepaid and contract – 2005 - 2012
  • Table 25 – Vodafone ARPU – blended, contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2012
  • Table 26 – Vodafone (UK) subscribers and proportion prepaid – 2001 - 2012
  • Table 27 – Vodafone (UK) financial data – 2007 - 2012
  • Table 28 – Vodafone customer churn – 2007 - 2012
  • Table 29 – Vodafone Group revenue by sector – 2007 - 2012
  • Table 30 – Vodafone UK service revenue by sector – 2009 - 2012
  • Table 31 – Vodafone mobile customer retention cost – 2007 - 2012
  • Table 32 – Vodafone customer smartphone adoption – 2010 - 2012
  • Table 33 – EE quarterly revenue – 2009 - 2012
  • Table 34 – EE financial data – 2011 - 2012
  • Table 35 – EE ARPU – 2009 - 2012
  • Table 36 – EE subscriber data – 2009 - 2012
  • Table 37 – EE monthly customer churn – 2009 - 2011
  • Table 38 – T-Mobile financial data (historic) – 2005 - 2010
  • Table 39 – T-Mobile subscribers (historic) – 2005 - 2010
  • Table 40 – Orange subscribers, contract and prepaid (historic) – 2006 - 2010
  • Table 41 – Orange subscribers by type, 3G, MVNO (historic) – 2007 - 2010
  • Table 42 – Orange revenue (historic) – 2005 - 2010
  • Table 43 – Orange customer churn (historic) – 2003 - 2009
  • Table 44 – Orange data revenue as proportion of total (historic) – 2007 - 2009
  • Table 45 – Orange annualised ARPU by category (historic) – 2006 - 2010
  • Table 46 – Orange mobile customer acquisition and retention cost (historic) – 2007 - 2009
  • Table 47 – MNO and MVNO share of subscribers – 2004 - 2011
  • Table 48 – Virgin Mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2012
  • Table 49 – Virgin Mobile revenue – 2007 - 2012
  • Table 50 – Prepaid and contract subscribers – 2002 - 2013
  • Table 51 – Contract proportion of total subscribers – 2002 - 2013
  • Table 52 – ARPU by subscription type – 2002 - 2012
  • Table 53 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2010; 2015; 2020
  • Table 54 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 2010 - 2016
  • Chart 1 – Call volumes, fixed-line and mobile in minutes – 2003 - 2013
  • Chart 2 – Mobile call revenue by operator – 2002 - 2010
  • Chart 3 – Mobile retail revenue by service – 2002 - 2012
  • Chart 4 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 2003 - 2013
  • Chart 5 – Mobile subscribers by type – 2005 - 2012
  • Chart 6 – Mobile ARPU by use (data, SMS, voice) – 2005 - 2010
  • Chart 7 – 3 UK subscribers by sector – 2008 - 2012
  • Chart 8 – 3 UK ARPU by sector – 2009 - 2012
  • Chart 9 – O2 financial data –2007 - 2012
  • Chart 10 – O2 annualised ARPU – blended, contract, prepaid and data – 2006 - 2012
  • Chart 11 – O2 subscribers, prepaid and contract – 2005 - 2012
  • Chart 12 – Vodafone ARPU – blended, contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2012
  • Chart 13 – Vodafone (UK) subscribers and proportion prepaid – 2001 - 2012
  • Chart 14 – Vodafone (UK) financial data – 2007 - 2012
  • Chart 15 – Vodafone Group revenue by sector – 2007 - 2012
  • Chart 16 – Vodafone UK service revenue by sector – 2009 - 2012
  • Chart 17 – EE quarterly revenue – 2009 - 2012
  • Chart 18 – EE ARPU – 2009 - 2012
  • Chart 19 – EE subscriber data – 2009 - 2012
  • Chart 20 – Prepaid and contract subscribers – 2002 - 2013
  • Exhibit 1 – Spectrum awards – 800MHz and 2.6GHz – 2013

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