United Kingdom - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

The UK has one of the largest mobile markets in Europe, both in revenue and in the number of subscribers. It is served by four major providers – following the significant merger of Orange and T-Mobile – which have all launched 3G services, as well as by a growing number of low-cost MVNOs. The market is characterised by new developments in advanced data services provided over upgraded networks, the bundling of mobile as a quad-play service, and regulatory controls on charges and fees. Mobile penetration is above the EU average, yet subscriber growth remains strong as consumers adopt additional SIMs as well as business-oriented devices and smartphones on various platforms.

Fierce competition has forced operators to concentrate on packaging service bundles and on promotions, and explore applications such as mobile searching and advertising facilities. ARPU has been falling steadily for all operators, with growing mobile data use offsetting lower voice, interconnection and roaming tariffs. The market can expect considerable changes during the next two years as operators prepare their business plans to accommodate spectrum auctions in 2012 and adjust to the refarming of 2G spectrum for 3G use. This report surveys the UK’s mobile market, providing an overview of mobile statistics, regulatory issues and technologies. It also profiles the major operators and MVNOs, and looks ahead to mobile developments in coming years.

Key developments

Vodafone sells 5.5% stake in Indian division Essar and 44% stake in SFR; Everything Everywhere reports 1.1% fall in service revenue in H1 2011; regulator’s 2010 market data report and data to Q2 2011; operator data to end-2011; market developments into 2012.

Companies covered in this report include:

H3UK, Vodafone, O2, Everything Everywhere (T-Mobile, Orange), Virgin Mobile, Tesco mobile,

1. Synopsis
2. Overview of the UK’s mobile market
- 2.1 Mobile statistics
- 2.2 Operator market shares
3. Regulatory issues
- 3.1 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
- 3.2 Roaming
- 3.3 Number portability
- 3.4 Mobile termination rates (MTRs)
4. Major mobile operators
- 4.1 Hutchison 3
- 4.2 O2
- 4.3 Vodafone
  - 4.3.1 Sales and acquisitions
  - 4.3.2 Company restructure – a misdirection?
- 4.4 Everything Everywhere
  - 4.4.1 T-Mobile
  - 4.4.2 Orange
- 4.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
  - 4.5.1 Operators
  - 4.5.2 Mobile Virtual Network Aggregators (MVNAs)
5. Mobile voice services
- 5.1 Prepaid cards
6. Forecasts
- 6.1 Forecasts – mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2010; 2015; 2020
- 6.2 Forecasts – mobile subscribers and penetration – 2010 – 2016
- 6.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
7. Related reports

Table 1 – Mobile and fixed-line voice traffic and total traffic in minutes – 2004 - 2012
Table 2 – Mobile call revenue by operator – 2002 - 2010
Table 3 – Mobile retail revenue by service – 2002 - 2012
Table 4 – Mobile revenue as proportion of total – 2002 - 2011
Table 5 – Mobile handset sales – 2005 - 2012
Table 6 – Mobile network operator subscribers – 2011
Table 7 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 1995; 1997; 1999 - 2012
Table 8 – Mobile subscribers by type – 2005 - 2010
Table 9 – Percentages of mobile and fixed phones in homes – 2000 – 2012
Table 10 – Mobile subscribers by operator (regulator data) – 2000 - 2010
Table 11 – Mobile retail revenue by operator – 2000 - 2010
Table 12 – Total mobile retail revenue – 2009 - 2012
Table 13 – Mobile ARPU by sector – 2005 - 2010
Table 14 – Average retail revenue by subscribers, operator – Q4 2008 - Q4 2010
Table 15 – Mobile market share by operator – 2004 - 2011
Table 17 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2011
Table 18 – MTRs by operator (pence per minute) – 2010 - 2015
Table 19 – 3 UK subscribers by sector – 2008 - 2011
Table 20 – 3 UK revenue by sector – 2008 - 2010
Table 21 – 3 UK annualised ARPU by sector – 2009 - 2011
Table 22 – 3 UK data as proportion total revenue – 2009 – 2010
Table 23 – O2 financial data –2007 - 2011
Table 24 – O2 quarterly ARPU – blended, contract, prepaid and data – 2006 - 2011
Table 25 – O2 proportion of data to total revenue – 2006 - 2011
Table 26 – O2 subscribers, prepaid and contract – 2005 - 2011
Table 27 – Vodafone ARPU – blended, contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
Table 28 – Vodafone (UK) subscribers and proportion prepaid – 2001 - 2011
Table 29 – Vodafone (UK) financial data – 2008 - 2011
Table 31 – Vodafone Group revenue by sector – 2007 - 2011
Table 32 – Vodafone UK service revenue by sector – 2009 - 2011
Table 33 – Vodafone mobile customer retention cost – 2007 – 2011
Table 34 – Everything Everywhere quarterly financial data – 2009 - 2011
Table 35 – Everything Everywhere ARPU – 2009 – 2011
Table 36 – Everything Everywhere subscriber data – 2009 - 2011
Table 37 – Everything Everywhere monthly customer churn – 2010 - 2011
Table 38 – T-Mobile financial data (historic) – 2005 - 2010
Table 39 – T-Mobile subscribers (historic) – 2005 - 2010
Table 40 – Orange subscribers, contract and prepaid (historic) – 2006 - 2010
Table 41 – Orange subscribers by type, 3G, MVNO (historic) – 2007 - 2010
Table 42 – Orange revenue (historic) – 2005 - 2010
Table 43 – Orange customer churn (historic) – 2003 - 2009
Table 44 – Orange data revenue as proportion of total (historic) – 2007 - 2009
Table 45 – Orange annualised ARPU by category (historic) – 2006 - 2010
Table 46 – Orange mobile customer acquisition and retention cost (historic) – 2007 - 2009
Table 47 – MNO and MVNO share of subscribers – 2004 - 2011
Table 48 – Virgin Mobile subscribers – 2005 - 2011
Table 49 – Virgin Mobile revenue – 2005 - 2011
Table 50 – Prepaid and contract subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 51 – Contract proportion of total subscribers – 2002 - 2012
Table 52 – ARPU by subscription type – 2002 - 2011
Table 53 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 54 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 2010 - 2016

Chart 1 – Mobile and fixed-line voice traffic and total traffic in minutes – 2004 - 2012
Chart 2 – Mobile call revenue by operator – 2002 – 2010
Chart 3 – Mobile retail revenue by service – 2002 – 2011
Chart 4 – Mobile subscribers and SIM penetration rate – 1995; 1997; 1999 – 2012
Chart 5 – Mobile subscribers by type – 2005 – 2010
Chart 6 – Mobile ARPU by sector – 2005 – 2010
Chart 7 – 3 UK subscribers by sector – 2008 – 2011
Chart 8 – 3 UK revenue by sector – 2008 - 2010
Chart 9 – 3 UK ARPU by sector – 2009 – 2011
Chart 10 – O2 financial data –2007 - 2011
Chart 11 – O2 annualised ARPU – blended, contract, prepaid and data – 2006 – 2011
Chart 12 – O2 subscribers, prepaid and contract – 2005 – 2011
Chart 13 – Vodafone ARPU – blended, contract and prepaid – 2005 – 2011
Chart 14 – Vodafone (UK) subscribers and proportion prepaid – 2001 - 2011
Chart 15 – Vodafone (UK) financial data – 2007 – 2011
Chart 16 – Vodafone Group revenue by sector – 2007 – 2011
Chart 17 – Vodafone UK service revenue by sector – 2009 – 2011
Chart 18 – Everything Everywhere quarterly financial data – 2009 – 2011
Chart 19 – Everything Everywhere ARPU – 2009 - 2011
Chart 20 – Everything Everywhere subscriber data – 2009 - 2011
Chart 21 – Prepaid and contract subscribers – 2002 – 2012