Synopsis
The introduction of mobile telephony has revolutionised Uganda’s telecommunications industry since Celtel (now Zain) launched the first network in 1995, followed by MTN in 1998, Uganda Telecom in 2001, Warid Telecom in 2008 and HiTS Telecom, in which France Telecom’s mobile unit Orange bought a majority stake in March 2009. The intensified competition means that hundreds of millions of US dollars are being invested into new infrastructure, but it has also led to an unsustainable price war. However, at a market penetration of only around 30% there is ample room for further growth. In an environment of rapidly falling ARPU, the operators are trying to find ways of generating additional revenue streams. Mobile data and 3G broadband services, as well as m-payment and m-banking services, are at the forefront of this development in a country where less than 10% of the population currently has Internet access or holds bank accounts. In view of the uncertainty as to what extent Uganda will be affected by the global economic crisis, this report contains two scenario forecasts for the country’s mobile market to 2010 and 2015.