Turkey - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

Publication Overview

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Turkey’s telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile, Internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors. Subjects include:

• Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
• Facts, figures and statistics;
• Industry and regulatory issues;
• Infrastructure;
• Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU, MoU;
• Internet, IPTV;
• Mobile voice and data markets;
• Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless);
• Convergence and digital media;
• Mobile subscriber forecasts to 2020;
• Broadband subscriber forecasts to 2020;

Companies covered in this report include:

Turk Telekom, Turksat, Superonline, Dsmart, DigiTurk, Turkcell, Vodafone, Avea.

Researcher:- Paul Kwon
Current publication date:- October 2011 (10th Edition)

Executive Summary

Telecoms infrastructure supporting the development of a digital economy

Turkey’s telecommunications market exhibited its resilience despite recent economic uncertainty by maintaining positive growth. This trend will continue as the market evolves under technological, demographic and market forces.

Regulatory reform implemented as part of the European Union (EU) accession program continues to develop the market and improve competition. Despite declining teledensity levels, competition is heating up, most recently with the launch of naked DSL offerings in early 2011. Current take up levels point to strong growth in 2012.

Although ADSL still represents the majority of broadband subscriptions, the rapid take up of mobile broadband services hints at the evolving market. Against this backdrop competing Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks are being deployed, with approximately four million households passed. Deployments will continue into 2012 given the incumbent is executing on a 10 year project timeframe.

Recognising the potential of applying ICT to improve both social and economic development, Turkey has taken steps to develop a digital economy, encompassing e-commerce, e-government, e-health and e-education. The large potential online market has attracted international significant investment from multinational firms such as eBay and South Africa-based Naspers.

Mobile penetration in Turkey has reached levels indicative of maturity. However a large demographic of future customers (approximately 25% of Turkey’s population is under the age of 15, an age at which mobile phone ownership is highly uncommon) points to continued growth. In addition the focus on mobile broadband services following the launch of 3G/HSPA networks should find a receptive market among Turkey’s young technologically savvy population.

Table of Contents

• 1. Key Statistics
  • 1.1 Country overview
• 2. Telecommunications Market
  • 2.1 Overview of Turkey’s telecom market
• 3. Regulatory Environment
  • 3.1 Background
    • 3.1.1 Electronic Communications Law 2008
  • 3.2 Regulatory authority
    • 3.2.1 Information and Communications Technologies Authority (ICTA)
  • 3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Turkey
  • 3.4 Privatisation
    • 3.4.1 The 2005 privatisation
    • 3.4.2 Privatisation background
  • 3.5 Interconnect
  • 3.6 Access
  • 3.7 Number portability
  • 3.8 Universal services
• 4. Fixed Network Operators
  • 4.1 Overview
  • 4.2 Turk Telekom
  • 4.3 Turksat
  • 4.4 Superonline
  • 4.5 Borusan Telekom
• 5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
  • 5.1 National telecom network
  • 5.2 International infrastructure
    • 5.2.1 Submarine cable networks
    • 5.2.2 Terrestrial cable networks
    • 5.2.3 Satellite networks
• 6. Broadband Market
  • 6.1 Overview
    • 6.1.1 Internet and broadband statistics
  • 6.2 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Lines (ADSL)
  • 6.3 Cable modems
  • 6.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
• 7. Digital Media/Economy
  • 7.1 Overview
  • 7.2 Services
    • 7.2.1 E-commerce
    • 7.2.2 E-government
    • 7.2.3 E-health
    • 7.2.4 E-education
  • 7.3 Digital broadcasting
    • 7.3.1 Overview of broadcasting market
    • 7.3.2 Broadcasting regulation
    • 7.3.3 Digital TV
• 8. Mobile Communications
  • 8.1 Overview of Turkey’s mobile market
    • 8.1.1 Mobile statistics
  • 8.2 Regulatory issues
    • 8.2.1 Third Generation (3G) licences
    • 8.2.2 Third and fourth GSM licences
    • 8.2.3 Significant market power (SMP)
    • 8.2.4 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
    • 8.2.5 Telsim privatisation
  • 8.3 Mobile technologies
    • 8.3.1 Analogue
    • 8.3.2 Digital
    • 8.3.3 3G
  • 8.4 Major mobile operators
    • 8.4.1 Turkcell
    • 8.4.2 Vodafone (Telsim)
    • 8.4.3 Avea
  • 8.5 Mobile voice services
    • 8.5.1 Prepaid
  • 8.6 Mobile messaging
    • 8.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS) and Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
  • 8.7 Mobile broadband (Access)
  • 8.8 Mobile content and applications
    • 8.8.1 Music downloads
    • 8.8.2 Mobile TV
    • 8.8.3 Mobile advertising
    • 8.8.4 Mobile payments
• 9. Forecasts
  • 9.1 Broadband subscriber forecasts
    • 9.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
    • 9.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
  • 9.2 Mobile subscriber forecasts
    • 9.2.1 Scenario 1 – higher growth
    • 9.2.2 Scenario 2 – lower growth
  • 9.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
• 10. Glossary of Abbreviations

• Table 1 – Country statistics Turkey – 2010
• Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2010
• Table 3 – Internet user statistics – 2010
• Table 4 – Broadband subscriber statistics – June 2011
• Table 5 – Mobile statistics – June 2011
• Table 6 – National telecommunications authority
• Table 7 – GDP growth and inflation – 2005 - 2011
• Table 8 – Telecoms revenue and investment – 2004 - 2011
• Table 9 – Turk Telekom – Revenue, profit and EBITDA – 2007 - 2011
• Table 10 – Turk Telekom – Fixed-line revenue, EBITDA and PSTN ARPU – 2007 - 2011
• Table 11 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 1995 - 2011
• Table 12 – Internet user and penetration rate estimates – 1998 - 2011
• Table 13 – Broadband subscribers and penetration – 2001 - 2011
• Table 14 – Broadband subscribers by access technology – 2004 - 2011
• Table 15 – ISP market share – June 2011
• Table 16 – Turk Telekom ADSL ARPU and proportion of total fixed-line revenue – 2007 - 2011
• Table 17 – Audience share by channel – January – June 2011
• Table 18 – Satellite pay TV subscribers per operator – 2010 - 2011
• Table 19 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1995 - 2011
• Table 20 – 2G and 3G subscribers – 2009 – 2011
• Table 21 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – June 2011
• Table 22 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2011
• Table 23 – Mobile operators’ market share – 2007 – 2011
• Table 24 – Mobile Telecom revenue – 2004 - 2011
• Table 25 – ARPU levels per operator – 2011
• Table 26 – Turkcell group financial data – 2005 - 2011
• Table 27 – Turkcell Turkey average monthly ARPU – pre and postpaid – 2001 - 2011
• Table 28 – Turkcell Turkey average monthly MOU and churn – 2001 - 2011
• Table 29 – Vodafone pre and postpaid ARPU – 2006 - 2011
• Table 30 – Avea revenue and EBITDA – 2007 - 2011
• Table 31 – Avea prepaid, postpaid and blended ARPU and blended MOU – 2007 - 2011
• Table 32 – Ratio of prepaid to postpaid subscribers – 2000 - 2011
• Table 33 – Turkcell prepaid subscribers – 2001 - 2011
• Table 34 – Vodafone prepaid subscribers – 2006 - 2011
• Table 35 – Avea prepaid subscribers – 2007 - 2011
• Table 36 – Numbers of SMS and MMS sent – 2004 - 2011
• Table 37 – Mobile Internet subscribers and usage – 2010 - 2011
• Table 38 – Turkcell mobile Internet revenue – 2009 - 2011
• Table 39 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2011; 2015; 2020
• Table 40 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2011; 2015; 2020
• Table 41 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Turkey – higher growth scenario – 2012;2015; 2020
• Table 42 – Forecast mobile subscribers in Turkey – lower growth scenario – 2012;2015; 2020

• Chart 1 – Turkey fixed-line and mobile subscribers – 2000 – 2011