Russia - Broadband Market Insights, Analysis and Forecasts

Synopsis

Broadband has grown rapidly in recent years as incumbent and alternative telecom operators upgrade infrastructure as part of a general trend of migrating beyond voice-centric offerings to voice, broadband and convergence services. The relatively poor quality or lack of existing infrastructure has resulted in a variety of technology platforms deployed for broadband including xDSL, cable and FttH/FttB. Wireless solutions such as WiFi and WiMAX garnered much interest initially, though one of the main players Yota is abandoning WiMAX in favour of long-term evolution. The cooperation of three major mobile network operators and Rostelecom to deploy long-term evolution on Yota’s infrastructure will be a catalyst for significant mobile broadband uptake in coming years

Broadband diffusion is providing the basis on which a promising internet society is emerging, with much potential for future commercial, government and social services. This report offers a concise overview of Russia’s rapidly developing broadband market, providing an overview of major players, technology platforms, statistics and broadband subscriber forecasts for 2010-2013 and 2020.

Key developments:

MGTS migrates DSL subs in Moscow to GPON, expecting 400,000 GPON subscribers by end-2011; MTS and Vimpelcom invest RUB2 billion on 4,500km fibre infrastructure; MegaFon collaborates with utility EuroSibEnergo to use existing power lines to extend its fibre-optic network into Siberia; regulator announces winners for regional WiMAX services; government approves RUB3.1 billion investment to provide satellite broadband to remote areas; mobile internet subscriber base reaches 63.5 million; regulator market data operator data to September 2011.

Companies covered in this report include:

Synterra Telecom, Comstar, Volga Telecom, Vimpelcom, Summa Telecom, MetroMAX, Comstar, Yota, Virgin Connect, Enforta, Golden Telecom.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Russia’s emerging internet society
• 3. Regulatory developments
• 4. Fixed broadband market
  • 4.1 Overview
  • 4.2 Fixed broadband statistics
  • 4.3 Asymmetrical digital subscriber line (ADSL)
    • 4.3.1 Rostelecom
    • 4.3.2 MTS
    • 4.3.3 Vimpelcom
  • 4.4 Cable modems
  • 4.5 Fibre-to-the-home (FttH) networks
    • 4.5.1 Golden Telecom
    • 4.5.2 MTS
    • 4.5.3 Other operators
  • 4.6 Broadband powerline (BPL)
  • 4.7 Wireless broadband
    • 4.7.1 WiFi
    • 4.7.2 WiMAX
    • 4.7.3 Internet via satellite
    • 4.7.4 Mobile broadband
• 5. Forecasts – Fixed broadband market 2010-2013; 2020
  • 5.1 Scenario 1 – higher fixed broadband subscriber growth
  • 5.2 Scenario 2 – lower fixed broadband subscriber growth
  • 5.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
• 6. Related reports

• Table 1 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1999 - 2013
• Table 2 – Internet subscribers and penetration – 1999 - 2013
• Table 3 – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2003 - 2012
• Table 4 – Fixed broadband penetration – 2003 - 2012
• Table 5 – Fixed broadband subscribers by ISP in Russia – 2010 - 2011
• Table 6 – Moscow fixed broadband subscribes by ISP – 2010 - 2011
• Table 7 – Fixed broadband market share by operator (Russia) – 2010 - 2011
• Table 8 – Rostelecom fixed broadband subscribers – 2009 – 2011
• Table 9 – MTS fixed broadband subscribers – 2009 - 2011
• Table 10 – Comstar annualised residential fixed broadband monthly ARPU – 2009 - 2011
• Table 11 – Vimpelcom fixed broadband subscribers – 2008 - 2011
• Table 12 – Vimpelcom FttB subscribers – 2010 – 2011
• Table 13 – Vimpelcom FttB revenue – 2010 – 2011
• Table 14 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – higher growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
• Table 15 – Forecast fixed broadband penetration – higher growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
• Table 16 – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020
• Table 17 – Forecast fixed broadband penetration – lower growth scenario – 2010 - 2013; 2020

• Chart 1 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1999 - 2013
• Chart 2 – Internet subscribers and penetration – 1999 – 2013
• Chart 3 – Fixed broadband subscribers and annual change – 2003 - 2012

• Exhibit 1 – The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) annual E-readiness criteria