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Kenya - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

A price war has characterised Kenya’s mobile communications market in recent years, following the market entry of the third and fourth network, Econet Wireless Kenya (in which India’s Essar acquired a stake), and Telkom Kenya under the Orange brand with its new majority shareholder, France Telecom. Subscriber growth is now forecast to slow gradually over the coming years, and rapidly falling ARPU levels have driven one of the incumbents, Zain (which was subsequently acquired by Bharti Airtel), deeper into negative earnings, leaving only the market leader, Safaricom, with a net profit, although reduced. Financial performance has improved again in the 2011 financial year.

The operators are developing new revenue streams from third-generation broadband and mobile banking services. The leading operator has begun LTE trials. With market penetration rates in Kenya’s broadband and traditional banking sector still very low, the mobile networks have an opportunity to relive the phenomenal growth rates seen in the voice sector in recent years.

This report contains an overview and analysis of Kenya’s mobile market, profiles of the major players, relevant statistics, analysis, and subscriber forecasts for 2013 and 2016.

Companies covered in this report:

  • Safaricom (Vodafone);
  • Bharti Airtel (formerly Zain, Celtel);
  • Essar Telecom Kenya (Yu, formerly Econet);
  • Telkom Kenya (Orange, France Telecom).

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Overview of Kenya’s mobile market
    • 2.1 Mobile statistics
  • 3. Regulatory issues
    • 3.1 Interconnection
    • 3.2 International gateways
    • 3.3 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
    • 3.4 Quality of Service (QoS) control
      • 3.4.1 QoS survey 2009
    • 3.5 Registration of subscriber details
    • 3.6 Taxes
    • 3.7 Tariff regulation
  • 4. Major mobile operators
    • 4.1 Safaricom Ltd
      • 4.1.1 Privatisation and IPO
      • 4.1.2 Financial results
      • 4.1.3 Network development and operations
    • 4.2 Bharti Airtel Kenya (formerly Zain, Celtel, KenCell)
      • 4.2.1 Equity transactions 2004-2010
      • 4.2.2 Financial results
      • 4.2.3 Network development and operations
    • 4.3 Essar Telecom Kenya (Yu, formerly Econet)
      • 4.3.1 Six years of licence disputes
      • 4.3.2 Network development and operations
    • 4.4 Orange Kenya (Telkom Kenya)
  • 5. Mobile voice services
    • 5.1 Prepaid cards
    • 5.2 Special regional tariffs
    • 5.3 International roaming
      • 5.3.1 Free international roaming
    • 5.4 VoIP
    • 5.5 Flashback
    • 5.6 GSM community phones
    • 5.7 Price war
    • 5.8 Low-cost handsets
    • 5.9 Satellite mobile
  • 6. Mobile data services
    • 6.1 SMS
    • 6.2 MMS
    • 6.3 GPRS and EDGE
    • 6.4 BlackBerry
  • 7. 3G
  • 8. LTE (4G)
  • 9. Mobile money transfer, m-banking
    • 9.1 M-Pesa (Safaricom)
    • 9.2 ZAP (Zain)
    • 9.3 yuCash (Essar)
    • 9.4 Orange Money
    • 9.5 Other services
  • 10. Mobile TV
  • 11. Forecasts
    • 11.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2013; 2016
    • 11.2 Notes on scenario forecasts
  • 12. Related reports
  • Table 1 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1999 - 2012
  • Table 2 – Mobile subscribers by operator and quarterly change – December 2011
  • Table 3 – Safaricom ARPU – 2007 - 2011
  • Table 4 – Zain Kenya ARPU – 2006 - 2009
  • Table 5 – Safaricom voice/data revenue composition and annual growth – 2011
  • Table 6 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2013; 2016
  • Chart 1 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1999-2012
  • Exhibit 1 – Emergency rescue scheme for Lake Victoria
  • Exhibit 2 – Texting elephants
  • Exhibit 3 – Job offers by SMS

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