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India - Mobile Communications - Market Overview, Technologies and Forecasts

Synopsis

From a humble start, growth in India’s mobile sector rapidly picked up pace and developed a sustained momentum, aided by higher subscriber volumes, lower tariffs and falling handset prices. Home to a clutch of global operators working with local companies, India had over 750 million mobile subscribers (including both GSM and CDMA services) coming into 2011; the market was continuing to grow at an annual rate of around 40%. While ARPU has been steadily declining as competing operators offer cheaper tariffs the usage levels have remained reasonably high thus slowing the decline in revenues. There had been a major push in recent years to take mobile services into the poorer and rural areas of the country, a move that was weighing down on ARPU. The arrival of two more operators also added to the heat in the market place as they launched networks in late 2009. In 2010 the long-awaited 3G auctions finally took place. By the end of 2010 and into 2011 the 3G networks were being rolled out and services delivered to customers. This report looks at the mobile market in India and presents a set of relevant market statistics. It also examines the technology platforms in place and those being put in place. And finally the report looks at the range of mobile voice and data services in India.

Key developments:

A highly competitive market is seeing the total subscriber base continue to expand by more than 40% annually; with mobile penetration of around 65% in early 2011 there was room for more strong growth; ARPUs continue to shrink, however, much to the consternation of the operators; the crowded mobile market is showing the first signs of a fresh move towards rationalising the number of operators; the launch of 3G services has commenced and proceeding briskly; 3G may present operators with the chance to re-build ARPUs.

Companies covered in this report include:

Aircel/Dishnet, Bharti Airtel, Loop Mobile (BPL Mobile), Quadrant (HFCL), Idea/Spice, Reliance Communications, Tata Teleservices, Vodafone Essar, Uninor (Unitech), Videocon, S Tel, Bharti Telenet, Reliance Infocomm, Tata Teleservices, Sistema (Shyam Telelink), Swan Telecom, Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL), Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), Data Access, Hughes Telecom, Videocon, SingTel.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Synopsis
  • 2. Mobile communications
    • 2.1 Overview of India’s mobile market
    • 2.2 Mobile statistics
    • 2.3 Mobile market segments
    • 2.4 Forecasts
      • 2.4.1 Mobile market – 2015; 2020
    • 2.5 Development issues
      • 2.5.1 Revenue and ARPU
      • 2.5.2 Pricing and usage
      • 2.5.3 MVNOs
      • 2.5.4 Spectrum
      • 2.5.5 Rural expansion
      • 2.5.6 M-banking
      • 2.5.7 Foreign investment
      • 2.5.8 Future growth
    • 2.6 Regulatory issues
      • 2.6.1 Background
      • 2.6.2 Developments in 2011
  • 3. Mobile technologies
    • 3.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India
    • 3.2 GSM
    • 3.3 CDMA
    • 3.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile
      • 3.4.1 Background
      • 3.4.2 Handsets
      • 3.4.3 Licensing process
      • 3.4.4 Spectrum allocation
      • 3.4.5 Auction procedure
      • 3.4.6 Auction
      • 3.4.7 BSNL and MTNL
      • 3.4.8 Analysis: consequences of the 3G auction
      • 3.4.9 Roll-outs and developments
      • 3.4.10 Future
  • 4. Mobile voice services
    • 4.1 Prepaid
  • 5. Mobile data services
    • 5.1 Market overview
    • 5.2 Short Message Service (SMS)
    • 5.3 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
    • 5.4 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
    • 5.5 i-mode
    • 5.6 BlackBerry
    • 5.7 Mobile TV
    • 5.8 Mobile content
      • 5.8.1 Social networking
      • 5.8.2 Mobile payments
      • 5.8.3 Advertising and Marketing
  • 6. Related reports
  • Table 1 – Overview of India’s mobile market – 2009 - 2010
  • Table 2 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration – 2006 - 2012
  • Table 3 – Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) – 2002 - 2010
  • Table 4 – GSM mobile subscribers and annual change – 1997 - 2010
  • Table 5 – Mobile penetration urban and rural – 2007; 2009 - 2010
  • Table 6 – Mobile services revenue – 1996 - 2012
  • Table 7 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2010
  • Table 8 – Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) – 2005 - 2010
  • Table 9 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
  • Table 10 –GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle – 2009 - 2010
  • Table 11 – GSM ARPU – 2003 - 2010
  • Table 12 – GSM ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2010
  • Table 13 – GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share – 2010
  • Table 14 – GSM ARPU by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2010
  • Table 15 – CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share – 2010
  • Table 16 – CDMA ARPU – 2003 - 2010
  • Table 17 – CDMA ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2010
  • Table 18 – 3G auction: Number of licences and total fees paid by operators – 2010
  • Table 19 – Prepaid mobile subscribers: share of total market – 2003 - 2010
  • Table 20 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2010
  • Chart 1 - Mobile subscribers and penetration – 2006 - 2012
  • Chart 2 – Mobile subscribers by technology and mobile services revenue – 2002 - 2010
  • Chart 3 – GSM subscribers and ARPU – 2003 - 2010
  • Chart 4 – GSM mobile operator market share - 2010
  • Chart 5 – CDMA mobile operator market share - 2010
  • Chart 6 – CDMA subscribers and ARPU – 2003 - 2010
  • Exhibit 1 – CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India
  • Exhibit 2 – 3G auction results: Service area licences by operator – May 2010

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