Global - Forecasts - Industry - Developments for 2004

Synopsis

The incumbent telcos have been the big winners in the telco crisis. They have avoided restructuring and still largely depend on their vertical integrated (monopolistic) models. However, disruption from new technologies (VoIP and wireless broadband) will start making an impact and further ‘disruptive’ regulations will improve wholesale models, especially for BSPs as well infrastructure developments - expect more on structural separation. Utilities are slowly but steadily making new inroads here as well. The financial market will make it even more difficult for the incumbents to invest in new developments; which might lead to a slow fragmentation of the industry. This report was archived in 2005.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Related reports
• 3. Competition shifting to new ground
  • 3.1 Wholesale opportunities
  • 3.2 Infrastructure competition
  • 3.3 Utilities slowly but surely moving forward
• 4. Leaders, followers and losers
• 5. Winning and losing formulae
• 6. The resurgence of the monopolies
  • 6.1 Betting on the wrong horse
  • 6.2 Massive write-offs
• 7. Decade of mismanagement
• 8. Cost-cutting is not a strategy
• 9. Financial drought set to continue
• 10. Urgent need for new leadership, vision and strategies
• 11. Who does perform in telco land?

• Table 1 – Some major company losses/write offs – by early 2003
• Table 2 – Job losses – 2001 - 2003
• Table 3 – Telco performance – 2002 (Total return statistics)

• Exhibit 1 – Propositions