Global - Analysis - Transitions to a Digital Industry

Synopsis

Archived report. This report was archived in November 2008 and has not been updated since. Written by Jaap van Till – Stratix Consulting [www.stratix.nl] and HAN University, The Netherlands, This paper describes one of a number of possible scenarios for the digital industry where services move further down to the edges and to more central server farms. These movements become possible by the extraordinary growth in capabilities of chips and software driven by Moore’s Law and by very much higher bandwidth capacities. Not only will new networks consist of federations of connected software and storage ‘objects’ concentrated in completely new network locations, but also mobile ‘service in a box’ devices will appear, called Networked Personal Units; Several like the iPod and something like ‘Skype in a box’. They will perform a single function only, but in an amazingly great way so they are very useful and valuable to prosumers.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
  
• 2. Introduction
  
• 3. The most important telecoms transition issues appearing from our models and scenarios
  
  • 3.1 Horizontal value chains
    
  • 3.2 The value chains are no longer in one direction: from supplier to consumer
    
  • 3.3 Bandwidth demand will continue to go up
    
  • 3.4 ‘Services’ are not a separate layer but are part of every layer
    
  • 3.5 Because of more intelligence in devices the ‘place’ of services is shifting.
    
  • 3.6 Another big sudden jump-transition, in fact two at the same time is to G4 mobile &FttH
    
• 4. New kinds of innovations
  
• 5. What may be next after WMesh+fiberMAN
  
• 6. Postsciptum
  
• 7. References
  
• 8. Related BuddeComm reports
  

• Exhibit 1 – Tillevision Model for ICT Infrastructure
• Exhibit 2 – Tillevision Model
• Exhibit 3 – Conjecture Subsidiarty
• Exhibit 4 – Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm
• Exhibit 5 – Rural Tellet mobile voice-mail devices