Global - Analysis - Industry - Forecasting beyond the telco crisis

Synopsis

This report was archived in May 2006. In the absence of the desperately needed industry restructuring, the telco crisis continued for much longer than was anticipated. Regulators, as well as what’s left of the competition, are showing all the symptoms of battle fatigue and the incumbents are comfortably settling back into monopoly mode. Prices are going up. The current threats of war and terrorism are encouraging a more conservative strategy, which is undermining the new investments needed for the modernisation of the network and for innovative new services. And the financial market refuses to look beyond the financial results of the next quarter. However, a three to five year vision is needed to stimulate the development of new revenue streams.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Related reports
• 3. Forecasting discussion with Terry Retter (PwC)
  • 3.1 Setting the scene with PwC forecast
  • 3.2 New technologies – new business processes – new business models
  • 3.3 Higher ARPUs in broadbanded countries
  • 3.4 Networks are rapidly becoming outdated
  • 3.5 Expect dramatic changes between 2005 and 2008
• 4. Telco crisis – who is to blame?
  • 4.1 In essence the industry’s own fault
  • 4.2 Economic decline in the USA
  • 4.3 Financial doomsayers
  • 4.4 No leadership
• 5. The effect of terror and war
  • 5.1 September 11
  • 5.2 The Bali attack
  • 5.3 The war with Iraq
  • 5.4 North East Asia
• 6. What went wrong
  • 6.1 Ridiculous financial predictions
  • 6.2 The mobile hype
  • 6.3 Massive over-capacity in the long haul
  • 6.4 No new CANs
  • 6.5 Global expansions
• 7. The key drivers of growth
• 8. Analysis of the crash
  • 8.1 Inauspicious alignment of the telecommunication stars
  • 8.2 Manufacturers desperate for new growth markets
  • 8.3 Telcos without vision or strategies
  • 8.4 Financial analysts dazzled by the telco dollars
  • 8.5 Where to go from here?
    • 8.5.1 A lonely voice during the hype
    • 8.5.2 The natural market for telcos is network operation
    • 8.5.3 Manufacturers as network operators
    • 8.5.4 Mobile network operators as wholesalers
    • 8.5.5 Internet Service Providers
    • 8.5.6 Content and service providers
    • 8.5.7 Broadcasting is dead
• 9. The Kondratieff cycle