Germany - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

The German mobile market is the largest in Europe in terms of subscribers and revenue. Mobile penetration reached more than 135% by early 2011. In common with most markets the main area of growth is in the 3G sector. The market is dominated by Telekom Deutschland and Vodafone, though an increasing number of resellers has fuelled competition and placed pressure on tariffs, resulting in lower ARPU. Regulatory pressure on voice roaming as well as termination rates will encouraged operators to further step-up their development of data applications to improve profits. This report provides statistics and analysis on the mobile market in Germany, including an overview of the main operators together with 3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015.

Key developments:

Spectrum auctions to release sub-GHz band for mobile broadband; universal broadband dependant on licence conditions concerned with rural areas; subscriber growth propping up revenue during economic slowdown; higher ARPU contract plans now making up majority of subscriber base; Vodafone reports 27,000 LTE customers; MTRs set to end-2012; substitution of voice and SMS by mobile apps expected to be problematic for MNOs from 2012, DT and FT agree on multi-million euro procurement and network JV; E-Plus granted right to use 900MHz band for 3G/HSPA services; regulator’s market data for 2011; VATM market data for 2010 and update to September 2011; regulator market data for 2011; operator data to Q3 2011.

Companies covered include:

Telekom Deutschland, Vodafone, E-Plus, Freenet, CallMobile.

Table of Contents

• 1. Synopsis
• 2. Overview of Germany’s mobile market
  • 2.1 Mobile statistics
  • 2.2 Operator market shares
• 3. Regulatory issues
  • 3.1 Regulatory authority
  • 3.2 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
    • 3.2.1 800MHz
    • 3.2.2 3.4-3.6GHz
    • 3.2.3 2.6GHz
    • 3.2.4 Refarming GSM spectrum
    • 3.2.5 Other spectrum
  • 3.3 Roaming
  • 3.4 Number portability
  • 3.5 Fixed-to-mobile call charges
  • 3.6 Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs)
  • 3.7 Network sharing
• 4. Mobile technologies
  • 4.1 Digital
  • 4.2 Fixed-mobile convergence
• 5. Major mobile operators
  • 5.1 Telekom Deutschland
    • 5.1.1 Network contracts
  • 5.2 Vodafone
    • 5.2.1 Network contracts
  • 5.3 E-Plus
    • 5.3.1 Network contracts
  • 5.4 O2
    • 5.4.1 Network contracts
  • 5.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
    • 5.5.1 Freenet
    • 5.5.2 CallMobile
  • 5.6 Regional operators
• 6. Mobile voice services
  • 6.1 Prepaid cards
  • 6.2 Mobile VoIP
• 7. Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2012 - 2015
  • 7.1 Mobile ARPU forecasts
  • 7.2 UMTS forecasts
  • 7.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
• 8. Related reports

• Table 1 – Mobile market revenue – 1998 - 2012
• Table 2 – Telecom traffic, fixed and mobile (per day) – 1998 – 2012
• Table 3 – Mobile traffic in minutes (annual) – 1999 - 2012
• Table 4 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – Jun 2011
• Table 5 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1995 - 2012
• Table 6 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 1995 - 2011
• Table 7 – Mobile operator share of retail revenue – 2008 - 2011
• Table 8 – Mobile operator revenue and market share – 2011 (e)
• Table 10 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2012
• Table 11 – Cumulative mobile numbers ported – 2002 - 2009
• Table 12 – Mobile termination tariffs by operator – 2007 - 2012
• Table 13 – Telekom Deutschland financial data (Germany) – 2005 - 2011
• Table 14 – Telekom Deutschland subscribers – 2001 - 2011
• Table 15 – Telekom Deutschland average consumer monthly churn (Germany) – 2009 - 2011
• Table 16 – Vodafone Germany ARPU – 2008 - 2011
• Table 17 – Vodafone Germany customer churn – 2007 - 2011
• Table 18 – Vodafone Germany mobile subscribers – 2006 - 2011
• Table 19 – Vodafone Germany – financial data – 2003 - 2011
• Table 20 – Vodafone mobile customer cost – 2007 - 2011
• Table 21 – E-Plus mobile revenue – 2006 - 2011
• Table 22 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2011
• Table 23 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2011
• Table 24 – E-Plus net adds: prepaid/contract – 2006 - 2011
• Table 25 – E-Plus annualised customer churn – 2008 - 2011
• Table 26 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
• Table 27 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
• Table 28 – O2 revenue – 2006 - 2011
• Table 29 – Mobile service provider share of subscribers – 2006 - 2012
• Table 30 – Freenet Group subscribers – 2007 - 2011
• Table 31 – Freenet Group ARPU – 2007 - 2011
• Table 32 – Freenet (mobile) financial data – 2007 - 2011
• Table 34 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2010; 2012 - 2015
• Table 35 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2012 - 2015

• Chart 1 – Telecom traffic, fixed and mobile (per day) – 1998 – 2012
• Chart 2 – Mobile traffic in minutes (annual) – 2003 – 2011
• Chart 3 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2000 - 2011
• Chart 4 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 1995 – 2011
• Chart 5 – Mobile operator share of revenue – 2008 - 2011
• Chart 7 – Telekom Deutschland financial data (Germany) – 2005 - 2011
• Chart 8 – Vodafone Germany – financial data – 2003 - 2011
• Chart 9 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2011
• Chart 10 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2011
• Chart 11 – E-Plus net adds: prepaid/contract – 2006 - 2011
• Chart 12 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
• Chart 13 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
• Chart 14 – Mobile service provider share of subscribers – 2006 - 2012
• Chart 15 – Freenet Group subscribers – 2007 - 2011
• Chart 16 – Freenet Group ARPU – 2007 - 2011
• Chart 17 – Prepaid customer share of all subscribers – 2000 – 2012

• Exhibit 1 –Spectrum allocation overview – 2011
• Exhibit 2 –Spectrum auction results (800MHz, 1.8GHz, 2GHz and 2.6GHz) – May 2010
• Exhibit 3 –Spectrum auction assignments (800MHz) – May 2010