Germany - Mobile Market Insights, Statistics and Forecasts

Synopsis

The German mobile market is the largest in Europe in terms of subscribers and revenue. Mobile penetration reached more than 135% by early 2011. In common with most markets the main area of growth is in the 3G sector. The market is dominated by Telekom Deutschland and Vodafone, though an increasing number of resellers has fuelled competition and placed pressure on tariffs, resulting in lower ARPU. Regulatory pressure on voice roaming as well as termination rates will encouraged operators to further step-up their development of data applications to improve profits. This report provides statistics and analysis on the mobile market in Germany, including an overview of the main operators together with 3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015.

Key developments:

Spectrum auctions to release sub-GHz band for mobile broadband; universal broadband dependant on licence conditions concerned with rural areas; subscriber growth propping up revenue during economic slowdown; higher ARPU contract plans now making up majority of subscriber base; Vodafone reports 27,000 LTE customers; MTRs set to end-2012; substitution of voice and SMS by mobile apps expected to be problematic for MNOs from 2012; E-Plus launches low-cost ‘yourfone’ brand; DT and FT agree on multi-million euro procurement and network JV; E-Plus granted right to use 900MHz band for 3G/HSPA services; regulator’s market data for 2011; VATM market data for 2010 and update to September 2011; regulator market data for 2011; operator data to end-2011; market developments into 2012.

Companies covered include:

Telekom Deutschland, Vodafone, E-Plus, Freenet, CallMobile.

1. Synopsis
2. Overview of Germany’s mobile market
- 2.1 Mobile statistics
- 2.2 Operator market shares
3. Regulatory issues
- 3.1 Regulatory authority
- 3.2 Spectrum regulations and spectrum auctions
  - 3.2.1 800MHz
  - 3.2.2 3.4-3.6GHz
  - 3.2.3 2.6GHz
  - 3.2.4 Refarming GSM spectrum
  - 3.2.5 Other spectrum
- 3.3 Roaming
- 3.4 Number portability
- 3.5 Fixed-to-mobile call charges
- 3.6 Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs)
- 3.7 Network sharing
4. Mobile technologies
- 4.1 Digital
- 4.2 Fixed-mobile convergence
5. Major mobile operators
- 5.1 Telekom Deutschland
  - 5.1.1 Network contracts
- 5.2 Vodafone
  - 5.2.1 Network contracts
- 5.3 E-Plus
  - 5.3.1 Network contracts
- 5.4 O2
  - 5.4.1 Network contracts
- 5.5 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
  - 5.5.1 Freenet
  - 5.5.2 CallMobile
- 5.6 Regional operators
6. Mobile voice services
- 6.1 Prepaid cards
- 6.2 Mobile VoIP
7. Forecasts – mobile market – 2010; 2012 - 2015
- 7.1 Mobile ARPU forecasts
- 7.2 UMTS forecasts
- 7.3 Notes on scenario forecasts
8. Related reports

Table 1 – Mobile market revenue – 1998 - 2012
Table 2 – Telecom traffic, fixed and mobile (per day) – 1998 – 2012
Table 3 – Mobile traffic in minutes (annual) – 1999 - 2012
Table 4 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – 2011
Table 5 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1995 - 2013
Table 6 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 1995 - 2011
Table 7 – Mobile operator share of retail revenue – 2008 - 2011
Table 8 – Mobile operator revenue and market share – 2011 (e)
Table 10 – European roaming charges – 2007 - 2012
Table 11 – Cumulative mobile numbers ported – 2002 - 2009
Table 12 – Mobile termination tariffs by operator – 2007 - 2012
Table 13 – Telekom Deutschland financial data (Germany) – 2005 - 2011
Table 14 – Telekom Deutschland subscribers – 2001 - 2011
Table 15 – Telekom Deutschland average consumer monthly churn (Germany) – 2009 - 2011
Table 16 – Vodafone Germany ARPU – 2008 - 2011
Table 17 – Vodafone Germany customer churn – 2007 - 2011
Table 18 – Vodafone Germany mobile subscribers – 2006 - 2011
Table 19 – Vodafone Germany – financial data – 2003 - 2011
Table 20 – Vodafone mobile customer cost – 2007 - 2011
Table 21 – E-Plus mobile revenue – 2006 - 2012
Table 22 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2012
Table 23 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2012
Table 24 – E-Plus net adds: prepaid/contract – 2006 - 2012
Table 25 – E-Plus annualised customer churn – 2008 - 2012
Table 26 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
Table 27 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
Table 28 – O2 revenue – 2006 - 2011
Table 29 – Mobile service provider share of subscribers – 2006 - 2012
Table 30 – Freenet Group subscribers – 2007 - 2011
Table 31 – Freenet Group ARPU – 2007 - 2011
Table 32 – Freenet (mobile) financial data – 2007 - 2011
Table 34 – Forecast mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2010; 2012 - 2015
Table 35 – Forecast UMTS subscribers – 2006 - 2010; 2012 - 2015

Chart 1 – Telecom traffic, fixed and mobile (per day) – 1998 – 2012
Chart 2 – Mobile traffic in minutes (annual) – 2003 – 2011
Chart 3 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2000 - 2013
Chart 4 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 1995 – 2011
Chart 5 – Mobile operator share of revenue – 2008 - 2011
Chart 7 – Telekom Deutschland financial data (Germany) – 2005 - 2011
Chart 8 – Vodafone Germany – financial data – 2003 - 2011
Chart 9 – E-Plus subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2012
Chart 10 – E-Plus ARPU by sector – 2006 - 2012
Chart 11 – E-Plus net adds: prepaid/contract – 2006 - 2012
Chart 12 – O2 subscribers – contract and prepaid – 2005 - 2011
Chart 13 – O2 monthly ARPU – 2006 - 2011
Chart 14 – Mobile service provider share of subscribers – 2006 - 2012
Chart 15 – Freenet Group subscribers – 2007 - 2011
Chart 16 – Freenet Group ARPU – 2007 - 2011
Chart 17 – Freenet (mobile) financial data – 2007 – 2011
Chart 18 – Prepaid customer share of all subscribers – 2000 – 2012

Exhibit 1 –Spectrum allocation overview – 2011
Exhibit 2 –Spectrum auction results (800MHz, 1.8GHz, 2GHz and 2.6GHz) – May 2010
Exhibit 3 –Spectrum auction assignments (800MHz) – May 2010